ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[HurricaneBelle]

A couple of hours ago I was outside with the kids in the pool, suddenly got dark w/thunder & lightning so we got the heck out, and watched a squall go through with 35-40 MPH wind gusts, knocked a few items over on our enclosed deck.

Here's what NWS Tampa Bay has to say as of about an hour ago:

OUR WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS TRACKING
NORTHWARD OFFSHORE ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS IN BRINGING THIS LOW PRESSURE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS IT LIFTS NORTH...IT WILL ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND CAUSE THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE INTO
ADVISORY CATEGORY. NAM12 WINDS WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH RUC13 WINDS
SHOWING OFFSHORE WATERS SUSTAINED 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

[thetruesms]

Floater is t3. If your like me and can't stand the java loops they also offer flash, though no page links to it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/

All the flash loops are named flash-?????.html

Floaters for the other storms are

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/

flash links can be found from this page:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

[Aric Dunn]

Needs to have low pressure work down to the surface before we get too excited - so far, just a mid-level circulation.

You're absolutely right, but as we've experience over the years... expect the unexpected with these things.... might not do anything but be a big rain maker... ya never really know.... but its been organizing all day today... whose to say it's not going to continue... I think the first invest in the GOM warrants a little excitement....

i can tell you that this thing is organizing so fast ... that the process of working to the surface wont take long.. also its close enough to the radar site that a circulation does exist in the low levels and mid levels.. but i agree from obs only broad turning is seen at the surface. i can find all wind directions except west components and thats mostly because our obs are limited..

[tolakram]

Floater is t3. If your like me and can't stand the java loops they also offer flash, though no page links to it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/

All the flash loops are named flash-?????.html

Floaters for the other storms are

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/

flash links can be found from this page:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

Thanks! That's a huge help. i swear I checked that page not more than a few weeks ago. Flash new this year?

[thetruesms]

Floater is t3. If your like me and can't stand the java loops they also offer flash, though no page links to it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/

All the flash loops are named flash-?????.html

Floaters for the other storms are

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/

flash links can be found from this page:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

Thanks! That's a huge help. i swear I checked that page not more than a few weeks ago. Flash new this year?

Admittedly, I didn't check until lately, but now is the first I've seen of it

[wxman57]

SHIPS taking this up to an 85 MPH hurricane... Mind you, this is after 2 days over water which seems a little dubious. Still though, this is the type of storm that can be all the worse because people have very little time to prepare. I expect a STDS will be released by NHC sometime soon, or they will wait until 11 to announce it.

SHIPS is a statistical model that doesn't know it is over land at the time. GFS/NAM bring the vorticity center inland before noon tomorrow. Shouldn't be enough time for anything significant to develop. Pressures in the region are in the 1014-1015mb range now. Could be a weak spin at the surface. Less than 18 hours left over water, probably. I think the BAMs initialized it too slowly.

[Aric Dunn]

SHIPS taking this up to an 85 MPH hurricane... Mind you, this is after 2 days over water which seems a little dubious. Still though, this is the type of storm that can be all the worse because people have very little time to prepare. I expect a STDS will be released by NHC sometime soon, or they will wait until 11 to announce it.

SHIPS is a statistical model that doesn't know it is over land at the time. GFS/NAM bring the vorticity center inland before noon tomorrow. Shouldn't be enough time for anything significant to develop. Pressures in the region are in the 1014-1015mb range now. Could be a weak spin at the surface. Less than 18 hours left over water, probably. I think the BAMs initialized it too slowly.

humberto took 12 hours..

[Aric Dunn]

latest radar images ...

still showing this thing rapidly organize....

looking more symmetric with banding starting to take shape and clear circulation..

[Nederlander]

Gotta give Joe B credit on this one... He called this on wednesday

[Aric Dunn]

man this thing is tightening up fast...

circled is the center of the over all turning and quickly organizing..

[Frank P]

also hints a little more of NW component.. if this were to be the case it would give it more time over water..

[Aric Dunn]

people this maybe really start to bomb out soon.. i have a not so good feeling.. maybe its this or something else .. lol

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Tidbit on what is forecast to happen over the southeast US and into the gulf.

[quote][/quote] A STRONG ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

May build in enough tomorrow to slow this system down and turn it more westward giving it even a little more time over water.

[attallaman]

If this system holds together where are the models projecting it will make landfall? The FL panhandle or possibly further to the west like my neck of the woods or not?

[Nederlander]

We may have our C storm (claudette) before our A and B storms..

How's the surface pressure? Falling yet?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

If this system holds together where are the models projecting it will make landfall? The FL panhandle or possibly further to the west like my neck of the woods or not?

The last I saw was just to the west of New Orleans moving NNW if I remeber correctly.

[wxman57]

If this system holds together where are the models projecting it will make landfall? The FL panhandle or possibly further to the west like my neck of the woods or not?

Doesn't matter if it holds together or not, you may get some rain out of it tomorrow afternoon/night. I calculate it'll be inland within 18-24 hrs between SE LA and the central FL Panhandle. Could be bordering on TD strength/status as it moves ashore. Slight chance of weak TS. More likely just a weak low pressure area moving inland closer to noon or early afternoon. No significant wind over land, just rain.

[ROCK]

This looks like Humberto as it neared the coast....I agree with Aric rapidly organizing... I am also thinking the proximity of land is actually helping this it....

[Aric Dunn]

it has a near perfect upper high over it..
and of course the vorticity is increasing.. quickly..

[bob rulz]

SHIPS taking this up to an 85 MPH hurricane... Mind you, this is after 2 days over water which seems a little dubious. Still though, this is the type of storm that can be all the worse because people have very little time to prepare. I expect a STDS will be released by NHC sometime soon, or they will wait until 11 to announce it.

SHIPS is a statistical model that doesn't know it is over land at the time. GFS/NAM bring the vorticity center inland before noon tomorrow. Shouldn't be enough time for anything significant to develop. Pressures in the region are in the 1014-1015mb range now. Could be a weak spin at the surface. Less than 18 hours left over water, probably. I think the BAMs initialized it too slowly.

humberto took 12 hours..

And Humberto was an freak occurrence.

I doubt this has enough time to organize into a hurricane...it's probably at least a few hours away from being a TD still, and while storms can intensify quickly in the boiling Gulf of Mexico waters, there's still likely not enough time for it to become anything significant. If it tracks a little further west, maybe towards the Mississippi, then it has more of a chance, but it's still unlikely this will become anything more than a strong TS. Of course, that might not matter much if it slows down or stalls...