WPAC: EX TROPICAL STORM OMAIS

[HURAKAN]

Shear kicking its rear

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 11.1N 135.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 135.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 12.4N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.9N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.3N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.2N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 134.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM WEST-
NORTHWESTOF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

PAGASA releasing warnings



Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 1,000 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar

Coordinates: 12.8°N, 134.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near center

Movement: West Northwest at 22 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Thursday morning:
730 km Northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar
Friday morning:
780 km Northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar or
780 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Saturday morning:
800 km Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan



No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised


This weather disturbance still far to affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/wb.html

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

24/0830 UTC 12.6N 133.8E T3.0/3.0 02W -- West Pacific

45 knots

[P.K.]

T2.5 from the JMA at 12Z so it looks like typhoon season may be about to begin.

[dexterlabio]

JTWC raised the dvorak number to 3.0 so maybe they acknowledged the strengthening of this system. For me, the circulation is not that bad, and I was wrong by expecting that there won't be a noticeable deep convection on its circulation.

Honestly, it is quite disappointing that this system will recurve too much as predicted, because we need some of its rainbands to ease the effects of El Nino.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TPPN10 PGTW 241207

A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (E OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 24/1130Z

C. 13.3N

D. 133.5E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .60 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/0748Z 12.9N 134.3E AMSU
24/0816Z 12.7N 134.4E SSMI
24/0956Z 13.2N 134.1E SSMI


UEHARA

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1001 OMAIS (1001) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 13.4N 133.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 70NM
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 15.7N 131.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 261200UTC 16.8N 131.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 271200UTC 17.4N 131.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[Macrocane]

The organization of this system has improved a lot since yesterday, I didn't think it was going to look that good.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (OMAIS) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 13.3N 133.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 133.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.6N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.0N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.0N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.8N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (OMAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
NNNN

[KWT]

Not a bad looking TS despite obvious shear, with deep convection over the center, I'd guess 45kts at the moment based on what I'm seeing.

Still seems like the WPAC season has kicked off, will be interesting to see if the early stuff continues as it usually does in El Nino springs.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 MAR 2010 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 13:32:55 N Lon : 133:10:09 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 985.6mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.6 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Center Temp : -76.2C Cloud Region Temp : -74.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

24/1430 UTC 13.1N 133.0E T3.5/3.5 OMAIS -- West Pacific

55 knots

[HURAKAN]

TPPN11 PGTW 241823

A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (OMAIS)

B. 24/1730Z

C. 14.1N

D. 132.1E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPPED A 1.00 ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


GATES

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 985
WTPQ20 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1001 OMAIS (1001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 13.9N 132.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 70NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 15.8N 130.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 261800UTC 16.4N 130.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 271800UTC 17.3N 131.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

looking good!!

i hope it can strengthen a bit more before being killed by wind shear...