WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSON

[KWT]

Yeah upto 35kts now according to the JWTC. To me it does look like a TS and I think 35kts is about right, could even be a little higher then that IMO.

[HURAKAN]

could be a typhoon or close to it based on the microwave

[cycloneye]

It's developing very fast and yes,it may be a typhoon before it makes landfall at Luzon.

[dexterlabio]

The circulation is becoming more and more compact, but it still seems quite small for me. Wonder if this will intensify further, stronger than the forecast intensities set by JTWC.

[dexterlabio]

TPPN10 PGTW 120015

A. TROPICAL STORM 03W (PHILIPPINE SEA)

B. 11/2332Z

C. 14.3N

D. 130.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPPED A .60 ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/2001Z 14.1N 131.2E AMSU
11/2023Z 14.1N 130.8E SSMS
11/2148Z 14.2N 130.7E AMSU


GATES

3.0? Isn't it that equivalent to a 45kt TS?

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[KWT]

Thats getting much better organised now quite clearly...Luzon needs to watch this one carefully...

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1002 CONSON (1002) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 14.2N 130.5E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 15.5N 126.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 140000UTC 17.0N 122.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 150000UTC 18.2N 118.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[Chacor]

You know, the thread title should read just "WPAC: TROPICAL STORM CONSON". I don't think the "JTWC" bit is needed anymore since both JTWC and JMA agree it's a TS.

[cycloneye]

You know, the thread title should read just "WPAC: TROPICAL STORM CONSON". I don't think the "JTWC" bit is needed anymore since both JTWC and JMA agree it's a TS.

Yes, you are right about that.

[Macrocane]

Finally the WPAC has the second named storm, it loooks very good my guess is 50 kt in the next JTWC warning and that could be conservative.

[cycloneye]

JTWC 0300z advisory=45kts

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 14.2N 130.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 130.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.9N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.6N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.3N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.0N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.8N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.2N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.1N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 130.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST
OF MANILA PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

PAGASA is now tracking this system as "BASYANG".

[Chacor]

And this might be stronger than we think.

[dexterlabio]

WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TS 03W HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. A 120059Z 85 GHZ TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, CONFIRMING THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), HIGH SST (>30 DEGREES CELSIUS), AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) ALONG THE TRACK. THE CURRENT INTENSITITY IS BASED ON A
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TS 03W REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
LAST PROG REASONING.
B. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER
FAVORABLE SST AND OHC VALUES IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS. NEAR TAU 48 THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES OVER LUZON INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASED VWS AND LOWER OHC IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE
OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE TIGHTLY GROUPED THROUGH TAU 48 AND BEGIN TO
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY AT TAU 72, WITH GFS ERRONEOUSLY RECURVING THE
SYSTEM INTO THE STR.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 03W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS HIGH (>30 KNOTS) EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STR ANCHORED OVER CHINA. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXTENDED
FORECAST TRACK AND AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, TS 03W IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 120.//
NNNN

TPPN10 PGTW 120312

A. TROPICAL STORM 03W (PHILIPPINE SEA)

B. 12/0232Z

C. 14.3N

D. 129.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 28A/PBO LRG CDO/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/2148Z 14.2N 130.7E AMSU
12/0059Z 14.3N 130.0E TRMM


BRANDON

[oaba09]

pagasa forecast:

"BASYANG"has intensified into a Tropical Storm as it moves towards Northern Luzon Area.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 570 km East Northeast of Virac,Catanduanes
Coordinates: 14.4°N, 130.0°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and
Gustiness of up to 80 kph
Movement: West Northwest at 22 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday morning:
220 km North Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Tuesday evening:
make landfall over Isabela-Northern Aurora
Wednesday morning:
50 km East of Sinait, Ilocos Sur
Thursday morning:
320 km West Northwest of Laoag City


Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Cagayan
Isabela
Aurora

[Iceperple]

what's the matter?

Opening the banding eye?

MTSAT-2(VIS).....

[oaba09]

<Analyses at 12/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°20'(14.3°)
E129°50'(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 13/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°40'(15.7°)
E125°55'(125.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
<Forecast for 14/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°00'(17.0°)
E122°55'(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 15/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°10'(18.2°)
E118°40'(118.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
************************

Currently moving westwards....Based on the forecasts, it should be moving WNW soon...

[Typhoon10]

Wow, am excited! Sorry if I come across stupid to all you guys, dont know a lot of the terms you use, but am so glad to see the system developing.

I hope it does cause too much trouble in Philippines, but it appears to be heading towards me in Hong Kong! Better get the video camera out!

[dexterlabio]

TPPN10 PGTW 120609

A. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CONSON)

B. 12/0532Z

C. 14.1N

D. 129.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DT IS 3.5 BASED ON .70 WRAP ON
LOG SPIRAL. SYSTEM VERY COMPACT. PT IS 3.5 AND MET IS 3.0. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/0059Z 14.3N 130.0E TRMM


BRANDON

So 3.5 means a 55kt tropical storm. I guess this storm is getting stronger every minute. It was upgraded into a TS just this morning, and now almost reaching typhoon strength.

Is it just me, or this storm is really going more westwards than forecasted? Maybe I should also prepare my stuff. :|