KWT wrote:wxman57 wrote:Definitely a better upper air pattern than 97L. Hard to believe 97L has a better chance of developing within 48hrs. This system may be over water for 24-36 hours. Plenty of time to become a 50-60 kt TS. I'd go maybe 60-70% on it developing into a TS before it moves inland south of Tampico tomorrow night or Friday morning.
Without a doubt BUT it is a large wave with a huge gyre...its just like a WPAC system and they tend to take 36-48hrs from this stage to make it though when they do they tend to go up quickly. Therefore it could be 50-50 as to whether it gets there in time IMO.
I do however see no reason why we can't get a TD/TS out of it, we've seen plenty of systems in this position get going.
Something I've noticed KWT, even with the Wpac type circulations there is land around this which would help tighten up the circulation, unlike in the WPAC. Kind of like what happened to Alex.
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I don't agree, There was an invest (I think that it was 92L) that lookes almost like a depression in the central Atlantic between Cape Verde and the Caribbean, also there was the other little invest (I think it was 95L) that looked very good and the NHC even jumped from yellow to red code but at the end it was not upgraded.
