ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Vortmax1]

Thanks for the historical chart.
Some names on there I would like to forget.

[Vortex]

I found this interesting from San Juan NWS this morning..I'm wonder middle/end of week if the mentioned TUTT will have any significant impact on Colin. Also, noticed ships levels off and in fact decreases some as far as intensity towards the end of the forecast.


000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010936
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST SUN AUG 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT STRETCHES FROM LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE HEART OF HISPANIOLA. THE
LOW REMAINS IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN
MIGRATES WEST. IT IT REPLACED BY ANOTHER TUTT LOW NEXT WEEKEND
NEAR 20 NORTH 50 WEST. THIS LOW THEN RETURNS TO THE ORIGINAL
LOCATION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

[Sanibel]

D-Min. Better curvature now. The steering currents are slower than usual westward.

[wxman57]

SHIPS does indicate increasing shear past 72 hrs - up to 30 kts.

[cycloneye]

SHIPS does indicate increasing shear past 72 hrs - up to 30 kts.

That would be the saving grace for all of us who live in the islands.

[wzrgirl1]

SHIPS does indicate increasing shear past 72 hrs - up to 30 kts.

Yes noticed that. That would prevent further intensification. How far ahead does SHIPS forecast?

[ROCK]

SHIPS does indicate increasing shear past 72 hrs - up to 30 kts.

also would mean a weaker or delayed system....man that doesnt bold well for the island folks...

[knotimpaired]

Now we land in the area of uncertainty. Does one run out and buy 5 cases of water just to end up breaking it out in December?

Sometimes I wonder if too much information is wise.

[ROCK]

SHIPS does indicate increasing shear past 72 hrs - up to 30 kts.

That would be the saving grace for all of us who live in the islands.

maybe from a strong hurricane but track wise Luis this could go right over you instead of the north......you guys cant handle a bunch of rain....

[Sanibel]

It has the look of a disturbance just working the July conditions out and once it gains a little latitude and gets its structure together will turn into a good hurricane. Shear would cancel all that though.

[Vortmax1]

TUTT's and dry air should help a lot in knocking back any storm that gets up by the northern islands. I noticed the intensity guidance earlier this morning also.
Model input over the next 48 hours should be very interesting and telling as to what the setup will be.

Here's the Caribbean WV loop:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

[Blown Away]

TUTT's and dry air should help a lot in knocking back any storm that gets up by the northern islands. I noticed the intensity guidance earlier this morning also.
Model input over the next 48 hours should be very interesting and telling as to what the setup will be.

Here's the Caribbean WV loop:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

TUTT may be good for the islands and may keep the system shallow and move farther west and it appears conditions could improve if the system heads towards the Bahamas. SHIPS still forecasting a hurricane in the area of PR, so that can't be taken lightly.

[hurricaneCW]

I hope everyone realizes how unreliable shear forecasts are past 24 hours and how rapidly things could change especially in 6 or 7 days.

[Sanibel]

The disturbance looks like it is curling up with the center near 37W. The upper convection looks hazy around this center which could be an outflow starting to develop.

[knotimpaired]

We here in Puerto Rico have been blessed.

May be this time we will not be so lucky.

[wxman57]

The disturbance looks like it is curling up with the center near 37W. The upper convection looks hazy around this center which could be an outflow starting to develop.

That's the wave axis you're seeing. Second wave approaching what was 90L. It doesn't imply a developing LLC.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest discussion by Dr Jeff Masters.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:51 PM GMT on August 01, 2010

A concentrated area of intense thunderstorms near 9N 36W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has become more organized this morning. NHC has labeled this system Invest 91L, and is giving it a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by 8am Tuesday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of 91L to potentially allow further development. The main negatives for development are the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, and the fact that 91L is too close to the Equator to take much advantage of the Earth's spin to get spinning. Last night's ASCAT pass of the region did show a large region of westerly winds south of 91L, indicating that a surface circulation is trying to form. Satellite imagery shows that the intensity and areal extent of 91L's heavy thunderstorms is increasing. However, there are no signs of a surface circulation, and low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are not apparent yet.

Forecast for 91L
There is strong model support for 91L developing into a tropical depression. The GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models all develop 91L into a tropical depression by Tuesday or Wednesday. A west to west-northwest motion is predicted, and residents of the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm arriving in the islands as early as Thursday. It is possible that 91L would pass northeast of the islands, as predicted by the UKMET model, and it is too early to speculate on which of the islands is at most risk. As the storm approaches the Lesser Antilles late this week, 91L will encounter a strong upper-level low pressure system centered north of Puerto Rico. This upper-level low will likely bring high levels of wind shear to the waters just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Thus, if 91L stays to the south, in the Caribbean, it is far more likely to attain hurricane status than if it pushes north of the Caribbean. As always, long range forecasts of this sort are speculative, and it is too early to reliably say what the long-term risks of 91L becoming a hurricane are. The latest intensity forecast from the SHIPS model shows 91L peaking in strength four days from now, then weakening as it encounters the high wind shear area north of Puerto Rico.

[Clint_TX]

SHIPS does indicate increasing shear past 72 hrs - up to 30 kts.

Where it is right now i'd rather it go ahead and spin up unfettered...

[CourierPR]

One post mentioned dry air around the northern islands inhibitting development. I don't believe that dry air will be a factor. AccuWeather forecasted the tropics to moisten up this week.

[cycloneye]

I know many will not like what I will say but I am rooting hard for king TUTT to park near us