ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

I have a simple question. Why so many Upper lows in the 2010 La Nina season? I ask because the Caribbean should be favorable with La Nina in place.

[KWT]

Its interesting that its looking VERY similar to 2007 in terms of that TUTT feature and in that season it just sat there all season...and that was a quickly developing La Nina, certainly is something to keep an eye on!

This one does need to be watched still though, the convection is mighty impressive but just no real turning.

[TheBurn]

[tailgater]

I can see a fair amount of rotation on the northern side of the invest by using this site.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

and using 8 frames sped up a little. axis near near the blow up of convection.
another good view.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

There is certainly a fairly decent wave there, you can see that on the high resolution Vis loop and the way the clouds stream in from the SE and then exit on a NE heading, so at least it is a start.

The key will be trying to hold the convection where it is.

[HURAKAN]

12z

AL, 92, 2010080412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 725W, 25, 1009, DB

[tailgater]

If this development continues maybe they will send recon out for it tommorow. I don't have any knowedge of what the ULL in the western Caribbean is supposed to do but it looks staionary ATM, which would keep 92L from doing much of anything even if it does stay north of Nic./Hond.
I'm impressed with sat imagary this morning.

[HURAKAN]

best track

[Sanibel]

West Caribbean ULL doesn't look that strong. This might not have enough time to form. Low level center is north of Colombia.

[KWT]

It looks decent right now I have to admit, convection is holding quite nicely at the moment.

Need to watch to see if the convection holds because could quite easily see a developing system if the convection does remain...however still got a while ago.

[cperez1594]

This was from Brownsville AFD yesterday evening....

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MODELS CONSISTENT IN
KEEPING DOMINANT RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT TROPICAL WAVES
WILL BE ABLE TO SWOOP UNDER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF/BAY
OF CAMPECHE. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING TIMING ON ANY OF THESE
FEATURES TOO WELL. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE NO POPS FORECAST...BUT
HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT SEABREEZE MAY START TO BUILD AGAIN LATE
WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES...WHENEVER THAT
MAY BE. WILL NOT BE BETTER RESOLVED UNTIL A COUPLE DAYS
BEFOREHAND.

Intresting.......

[HURAKAN]

vorticity moving away from land

[tailgater]

This is definitely starting to get my attenion now.
These maps show a small amount of improvement in the conditions around 92L

[Portastorm]

Nice to see the forecasters in the Valley being savvy enough to pick up on that. We've had discussions here for years now about how the old, grizzled NWS forecasters in Brownsville were always great at picking up early Western GOM tropical threats as well as Arctic outbreaks in the winter.

This was from Brownsville AFD yesterday evening....

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MODELS CONSISTENT IN
KEEPING DOMINANT RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT TROPICAL WAVES
WILL BE ABLE TO SWOOP UNDER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF/BAY
OF CAMPECHE. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING TIMING ON ANY OF THESE
FEATURES TOO WELL. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE NO POPS FORECAST...BUT
HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT SEABREEZE MAY START TO BUILD AGAIN LATE
WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES...WHENEVER THAT
MAY BE. WILL NOT BE BETTER RESOLVED UNTIL A COUPLE DAYS
BEFOREHAND.

Intresting.......

[Dean4Storms]

I have a simple question. Why so many Upper lows in the 2010 La Nina season? I ask because the Caribbean should be favorable with La Nina in place.

I think there is some issues with lag time when you go from a strong El Nino to a La Nina in such a quick amount of time. It maybe another month before UL winds relax enough.

[KWT]

Low level convergence is increasing, the ULL needs to be watched closely as it may prevent development despite being a weak feature, but nonetheless conditions appear to be possibly becoming more favourable right now, the Vort is moving towards the deeper convection.

The southern region of convection could see someting getting going in the next 12-24hrs IF it holds.

[CrazyC83]

I have a simple question. Why so many Upper lows in the 2010 La Nina season? I ask because the Caribbean should be favorable with La Nina in place.

I think there is some issues with lag time when you go from a strong El Nino to a La Nina in such a quick amount of time. It maybe another month before UL winds relax enough.

1998 was seen as an analog year and it started pretty slow too, didn't really get going until mid-August.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 192245.GIF

Click on the loop and make it go fast, and you will see what I think it's the MLC or maybe, LLC.

[clfenwi]

Recon has been penciled in for Friday, if warranted.

NOUS42 KNHC 041430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 04 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-066

...

B. A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 06/1500Z
NEAR 16.5N 84.5W.