ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Second time this year a rain front came from the NW and opposite the normal SE tradewind direction. Probably connected to the recurve pattern we are seeing.

[KWT]

Without na doubt Sanibel, the last few weeks have been seeing some fairly strong upper troughs digging down, so perhaps not surprising that eventually a front will stall down this far south and have a shot at developing...

We saw several systems like this in 07 and 08.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF SAINT
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND ARE EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

[rockyman]

2pm TWO:
A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA

8pm TWO:
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA

[KWT]

Good spot rockyman, probably still nontropical right now though I'd imagine.

Also of note is the NHC thinking conditions may well become better in 48hrs which seems reasonable enough.

[dixiebreeze]

My above post could be a new 94 Recon thread?

[cycloneye]

My above post could be a new 94 Recon thread?

There is one already. viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108909&p=2031723#p2031723

[dixiebreeze]

I didn't know that thread was for the new 94L Invest Recon.

[Stephanie]

dixiebreeze - your post was merged with the new Recon topic for 94L

[KWT]

FWIW I agree dixiebreeze.

The key for this one will be just how long it gets over the Gulf before it makes landfall, the further south it manages to get into the Gulf, the greater the chances of this one getting going clearly.

[dixiebreeze]

dixiebreeze - your post was merged with the new Recon topic for 94L

Thank you Stephanie.

[Stephanie]

dixiebreeze - your post was merged with the new Recon topic for 94L

Thank you Stephanie.

You're welcome!

[HURAKAN]

Not bad

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

Notice that all buoys along the SE Florida coast show winds from the SW.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 94, 2010080900, , BEST, 0, 295N, 795W, 25, 1011, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[KWT]

Yeah Hurakan not a bad presentation there by the low, slowly dropping to the SW still towards Florida, so plenty of rain for S.Florida for the next 24-48hrs thats for sure.

[cycloneye]

If the SHIP model is right,shear will decrease as time goes ahead.

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120

SHEAR (KT)        23    26    25    14    11    15    14    14    15     7    11     5     6

[KWT]

One thing possibly that maybe interesting to observe is in these systems that start from cold cored origins they can form even in pretty high shear set-ups, thats certainly something I've noticed in the past, probably because there is more energy in the upper levels anyway I'd imagine.

[Dean4Storms]

I think once in the eastern Gulf it will stand a good chance at becoming tropical and closing off. The shear looks like it will relax a good bit and the SST's are explosive with potential. The only fly in the ointment will be the dry air at the mid to upper levels from the north. Maybe a situation where most of the precip is on the southern and eastern periphery.

[Frank P]

Tonight's IR shows poof in the Atlantic and all the convection in the NE GOM.. this is what the models were hinting at yesterday initially that something would could develop in the NE GOM... regardless, the convection off the coast of Fl tonight is all but gone.. maybe it'll come back later this evening... who knows