ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Code Red 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 1320 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Ivanhater]

Not wasting any time. Earl, is that you?

Get ready for a wild September folks...

[bob rulz]

I would put it higher than 60% personally, maybe 70% or even 80%. I guess they're still waiting to see if the organization and convection holds, although it's persisted very well and there's no reason to think that it won't continue to do so.

I would think that unless it rapidly organizes, they'll wait until visibles to upgrade, so I will guess TD7 at 5am.

[bvigal]

[Recurve]

I predict....a marked decrease in posts on the Danielle thread, and a rapid intensification over here.

NOT an official forecast.

[Brent]

Impressive, and I'm also thinking TD 7 first thing in the morning.

[Buck]

It's getting exciting!

[KWT]

Yeah I've got few doubts this will be a tropical depression soon enough...setting up fairly far south as well though the convection appears to be mainly on the southern side of the circulation....

Could see some gusty weather in the CV Islands...

[jlauderdal]

I predict....a marked decrease in posts on the Danielle thread, and a rapid intensification over here.

NOT an official forecast.

that will verify for sure but i predict a big fishy earl, fiona will be the one that really gets things cooking

[ColinDelia]

[Cryomaniac]

All aboard the Wave Train!

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2010082400, , BEST, 0, 124N, 193W, 25, 1006, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[CrazyC83]

IMO, this is at least a TD, possibly a TS, right now.

[Stephanie]

IMO, this is at least a TD, possibly a TS, right now.

It sure looks that way. Pretty darn healthy!

[KWT]

Thankfully all the convection is on the southern side otherwise it'd probably be a horrible day for the Cv Islands tomorrow if it was on the northern side!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

IMO, this is at least a TD, possibly a TS, right now.

It sure looks that way. Pretty darn healthy!

I second (or third that lol) it sure does.

[HURAKAN]

That's how I like my invests!!!

[KWT]

I'd imagine first thing tomorrow morning if the Vis imagery looks good enough we will probably see an upgrade come along I suspect....

A quick developer, good job Danielle is going to plow open a large hole, otherwise I'd be rather concerned about a long tracker right about now...

[cycloneye]

I'd imagine first thing tomorrow morning if the Vis imagery looks good enough we will probably see an upgrade come along I suspect....

A quick developer, good job Danielle is going to plow open a large hole, otherwise I'd be rather concerned about a long tracker right about now...

You think the hole will not be filled rapidly?

[HURAKAN]

very impressive