ATL: FIONA - Models

[gatorcane]

The EURO & CMC runs, is Fiona skirting up the EC or in position to cross SFL?

Looks like it could head west more looking at the ridge to the north (see x-y-no's pic). Obviously this is very far out so will likely change.

[perk]

Rather 50-50 really Cycloneye, though I'd say it needs more to happen for it to hit land then for it to recurve, or in other words more things will have to slot into place for a risk to land...

Honestly though the fact that the GFS does seem to build in an upper high as well even if its a bit delayed as well as the other two models is a cause for concern it really is.

Something told me you would not commit.

[Frank2]

Sure, but with it still on the African coast so much can change (and will) that it's useless for us to lose sleep over something like this...

We all remember Ike's "railroad track model runs" of a few years ago and how they continued to point Ike directly towards Miami - until it it made a sudden move southward and missed Florida entirely, and Ike was a named system northeast of Puerto Rico, unlike today's system that is unnamed and 4,000 miles away...

Frank

P.S. I'm a believer that the significant trough left behind by D & E will allow F to recurve since the future F is only 48-60 hours behind E - don't forget that the 240 hour models are showing a ridge to our north - meaning there will be a weakness to our northeast (per the D & E trough)...

[perk]

The EURO & CMC runs, is Fiona skirting up the EC or in position to cross SFL?

With that ridge sitting over it, i think it's in the position to keep moving west, at least on this run.

[Wx_Warrior]

Def a trend to watch. The "Ike" & "Rita" et al comments are years past.....things have changed, models have gotten much better and probably not the same setup.

No, this isn't what exactly is going to happen, after 1 run....But if this is the trend, then it will be nasty. I've been thru several majors, including Rita & Ike. I wish this upon NO ONE. Hope this was a bunk run and Fiona heads out.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

422
WHXX01 KWBC 271229
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100827 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100827  1200   100828  0000   100828  1200   100829  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.7N  23.3W   12.7N  25.9W   14.0N  29.2W   15.4N  33.1W
BAMD    11.7N  23.3W   12.2N  26.2W   12.7N  29.3W   13.5N  32.5W
BAMM    11.7N  23.3W   12.6N  26.1W   13.7N  29.3W   14.7N  33.0W
LBAR    11.7N  23.3W   12.1N  25.9W   12.4N  29.0W   12.9N  32.2W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          43KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100829  1200   100830  1200   100831  1200   100901  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.8N  37.7W   19.2N  47.3W   23.4N  55.7W   29.4N  62.9W
BAMD    14.3N  36.0W   16.5N  43.6W   19.9N  50.4W   23.3N  55.0W
BAMM    15.8N  37.2W   18.1N  46.1W   21.8N  53.7W   26.8N  59.2W
LBAR    13.4N  36.0W   14.7N  43.1W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        51KTS          61KTS          66KTS          62KTS
DSHP        51KTS          61KTS          66KTS          62KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.7N LONCUR =  23.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  11.5N LONM12 =  21.4W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  11.3N LONM24 =  18.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  100NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[KWT]

Most of the models show a recurve there but I'm willing to bet those shift westwards quite a bit further...IF it misses the connection to Earl then there is a sure good chance of it hitting the east coast giving the models are developing a ridge over the W.Atlantic for a few days.

[Frank2]

Perhaps, but as we know in meteorology trends are very important, and when two cyclones have recurved into a weakness, then it's very possible that the system right behind them will also recurve...

It's not a sure thing, but as Dr. Knabb mentioned in the past day or so the departing speed of Danielle would be critical to Earl and the system behind Earl, and since in fact Danielle has slowed down as some models had forecast (while others thought it might move out quickly) that is very critical to the trough remaining or lifting out...

The current NHC computes are one reason why we can't be shaken by those 10-day maps, because so much can and will change over the days to come...

Sometimes, I truly think NOAA (NMC) should restrict any products beyond 120 hours to internal use only, since they often cause needless sweating (lol) and really are only for the forecaster when it comes to recognizing any possible long-term trends, though even then the forecaster will often mention that the scenario is being ignored until repeated runs show a continuing trend, though even then that's usually not brought into the forecast until the 96-hour range or so...

[KWT]

From the looks of the models the models that recurve 97L early are the same models that get Earl to 70W...so it seems to me that if Earl recurves quickly then this one is a BIG threat to the US, if Earl takes its time then the threat ios much reduced for this one and overall thats the better of the two options really in terms of keeping the systems away from land...but one of the two is going to get west of 70W I'm pretty confident of that

[Sanibel]

It's not a sure thing, but as Dr. Knabb mentioned in the past day or so the departing speed of Danielle would be critical to Earl and the system behind Earl, and since in fact Danielle has slowed down as some models had forecast (while others thought it might move out quickly) that is very critical to the trough remaining or lifting out...

I wonder how that little jog west Danielle is taking will affect the outcome of those other tracks?

[Vortmax1]

The ECM sure rattled my cage this morning. I hate looking that far out but I couldn't stop myself after what I saw it doing.
It really wants to bomb this one out over a 48 hour period.
From 1000mb to 921!

I certainly hope this is not a trend...I've been through enough of these storms and I'm not interested in a Cat 5....for anyone!

[flwxwatcher]

The ECM sure rattled my cage this morning. I hate looking that far out but I couldn't stop myself after what I saw it doing.
It really wants to bomb this one out over a 48 hour period.
From 1000mb to 921!

I certainly hope this is not a trend...I've been through enough of these storms and I'm not interested in a Cat 5....for anyone!

Yea... I almost choked on my coffee this morning seeing the EURO and CMC solutions. This system is still many days away but it will be interesting to see how the trend goes the next several days.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC has FIONA clipping the Leewards.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Steve H.]

Yeah, the Euro is disturbing. It will be west across Florida into the GOM in that model dipiction, particularly since it's rapid movement from east to west in the last day of the run means that it will be running under the ridge still at that point. That's per the model run....whether that will happen is another deal, but the Euro's been pretty good with Danielle and Earl. The pattern right now seems straight forward from the Euro's perspective, stair stepping west from ridge/storm/weakness, ridge/storm/weakness, ridge/storm/weakness.........

[Vortex]

Cmc 12 yesterday was near Barbados so the trend as of 12Z today has been further north with each run…may be another recurve…

[cajungal]

still think this one will recurve as well. every model shows a recurve except for 2. I am going to Pensacola for Labor Day weekend. sure don't want to worry about any storm in the gulf. but highly doubt Fiona will be a gulf threat. I still think she will recurve in the end.

[Vortex]

lets see if 12Z nogaps follows the trend

[Ivanhater]

Hits the NE Islands..heading WNW

[Riptide]

This EC threat looks more authentic than Earl for sure. I'll be eagerly waiting to see how Fiona interacts with Earl. It seems like the tracks are progressively going farther west and with another round of massive ridging moving into the western atlantic After Earl, you'd be hard pressed to get this to avoid land.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 271819
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1819 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100827 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100827  1800   100828  0600   100828  1800   100829  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.0N  24.3W   13.2N  26.9W   14.6N  30.2W   15.8N  34.3W
BAMD    12.0N  24.3W   12.7N  27.2W   13.5N  30.4W   14.2N  33.7W
BAMM    12.0N  24.3W   13.0N  27.1W   14.1N  30.2W   15.0N  34.0W
LBAR    12.0N  24.3W   12.4N  26.8W   12.9N  30.0W   13.5N  33.4W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          41KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100829  1800   100830  1800   100831  1800   100901  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.0N  39.0W   19.3N  48.5W   24.3N  57.0W   31.3N  63.8W
BAMD    15.1N  37.4W   17.5N  45.1W   21.0N  51.9W   24.4N  55.7W
BAMM    16.0N  38.2W   18.1N  47.0W   22.1N  54.7W   28.6N  58.9W
LBAR    13.9N  37.1W   15.5N  44.5W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        49KTS          58KTS          61KTS          56KTS
DSHP        49KTS          58KTS          61KTS          56KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.0N LONCUR =  24.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  11.7N LONM12 =  22.4W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  11.4N LONM24 =  20.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM