ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[ColinDelia]

So it's obvious (or obviously confusing) that the CMC is actually developing the wave that has been discussed at length on the TT board and not 98L.

Right?

It appears to develop both. Here is 144 hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

98L at 50 W (after not moving for a few days)
The other wave at 25 W

[Vortex]

Latest visible indicates continued improvement in organization...This has the potential to be a classic cape verde storm...Large envelope and a developing LLC with convection beginning to fire near the center...Looking at the current/forecasted synoptics a well established sub-tropical ridge too the north will remain in place for the next 5-7 days as the system tracks w/wnw...Cyclones with large envelops typically develop slower...However, given low shear and warmer sst's with each passing day this stands a good chance to become Gaston. Long-term ridging is well established a week out along the east coast and west atlantic...The devils in the details but this appears to be a developing long classic cape verde storm.....

[South Texas Storms]

vortex you think this is caribbean bound and then possibly gom?

[Vortex]

The pattern would suggest either through the carribean or just north of the antilles...Long-term it certianly looks to get very far west looking at the pattern 7-10 days down the road. If that pattern verifies

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 98, 2010083118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 310W, 25, 1009, DB

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 98, 2010083118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 310W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[South Texas Storms]

yeah still a long ways out. but i guess this has the best chance of any of the systems out there right now to reach the gom...unless we get some home brew system.

[ColinDelia]

Convection looked better and more concentrated 12 hours ago. Dvorak numbers were 1.5/1.5 12 hours ago, 1.0,1.5 now.

[Aric Dunn]

after looking at it for a while.. there is very little evidence of anything at the surface.. there is however a very vigorous mid level circ and it some more convection develops with the mid level it could work to the surface.. I imagine the lack of a surface feature is why the nhc held the 10%. the model support has improved with the 12z run so maybe at 8pm they will up it to 20% especially if the convection can increase with the mid level.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ColinDelia]

12 hours ago.

[Aric Dunn]

all that convection from 12 hours ago was all ITCZ convection in that image you can see the mid level circ to the east of that convection..

[ROCK]

Latest visible indicates continued improvement in organization...This has the potential to be a classic cape verde storm...Large envelope and a developing LLC with convection beginning to fire near the center...Looking at the current/forecasted synoptics a well established sub-tropical ridge too the north will remain in place for the next 5-7 days as the system tracks w/wnw...Cyclones with large envelops typically develop slower...However, given low shear and warmer sst's with each passing day this stands a good chance to become Gaston. Long-term ridging is well established a week out along the east coast and west atlantic...The devils in the details but this appears to be a developing long classic cape verde storm.....

I agree....I am thinking carib bound with that set-up aloft...

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... asec6ir204

Nice loop

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like it could get more than a 10% chance at the next update.

Loop RGB: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-rgb.html

[ColinDelia]

I see what you're saying Aric. I believe it looks about like this. Yeah?



It'll be interesting to see if convection continues to increase near the low. Doesn't take so much to get going during peak season.
I'm willing to turn bullish on a dime

[KWT]

System is trying to get going but there is a heck of alot of SAL/dry air all around it and the models aren't that keen on it...may end up being like 93L which had a decent circulation but just couldn't hold the convection for long enough.

[Ivanhater]

I like the transition that has occurred today from a stout ITCZ feature to a separate low.

I'm a bit more bullish on this today. Still has some obstacles to overcome, but it is peak season.

[ColinDelia]

Agree with last two posts. Will just have to keep watching

[Ivanhater]