ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

This is an area that can quickly create monsters.

[KWT]

Probably not a bad thing to have a flight at higher levels tomorrow because it'll help the models to injest data from around the system.

For now anything could happen and its fairly slow motion mean its going to need watching for quite some time yet...going to be alot of sleepness nights for some, esp in the western part of the basin.

[Cyclone1]

Interesting little stat, here.

If this becomes Tropical Storm Julia before September 13th, than we are officially ahead of 2004 as far as activity per date goes.

[KWT]

Does anybody think that the fact that it is still so close to land, may prohibit development in the short term?

Quite possibly, there will very likely be some sort of dry air coming in from SA and I don't think it'll strengthen too quickly even if it does make it to a TD status...but down the line conditions looking very impressive, early days but as Crazy said, the Caribbean has created beasts on the expected track this one will take.

[tailgater]

A page or 2 back.

I'll be interesting to read IF this storm develops on it's origins. It's possible that a weak tropical wave came in this area but it seems most of the energy is coming off the NE coast of S.A. I can't recall that happening before , I'm sure it probably has at sometime before but it must pretty rare.

Caution long loop of the last 48 hrs.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

[expat2carib]

Just was curious if there were any radars in the area and along the path of 92l.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

[Typhoon_Willie]

Thanks ajc3 and expat2carib!

[bvigal]

Please, a PLEA about the island radars... and please don't flame me, it's only because I care about the people actually IN the bad weather!

Bandwidth here in the islands isn't the same as the states. I'm pretty sure the French and Dutch radars can't handle the load of great interest by the mainland U.S., because I've seen them crumble under load during other storms of interest to US mainland (translation: being hyped on US tv).

For us on the islands, the 3 radars are much more critical than any one radar is in the U.S., there is so little timely data locally. If they get overloaded and crash, nobody can use them.

Just asking users to exert some restraint, and don't be hitting refresh constantly. {off soapbox}

[HUC]

[quote="tailgater"]:uarrow: A page or 2 back.

I'll be interesting to read IF this storm develops on it's origins. It's possible that a weak tropical wave came in this area but it seems most of the energy is coming off the NE coast of S.A. I can't recall that happening before , I'm sure it probably has at sometime before but it must pretty rare.

Caution long loop of the last 48 hrs.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off[/quote]

This is an exellent question: origin from the ITCZ pulse?? In 1984 Hurricane Klauss born in the same region after a week of bad weather...Same origin???

[Weatherfreak000]

Interesting little stat, here.

If this becomes Tropical Storm Julia before September 13th, than we are officially ahead of 2004 as far as activity per date goes.

Now might be a good time to remind everyone of the hurricane season 1995, an analog to our current season, and the tracks it produced...



Look similar? Note that nasty GOM late season hurricane as well...

[weatherwindow]

Probably have recon on Saturday I'd imagine for this system in the E.Caribbean as well, so the next round of recon fun is likely soon!

You got it right. On Saturday afternoon will be the first mission. There will be one tommorow,but that one will fly very high in the Atmosphere.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 09 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-101

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 14.0N AND 64.0W FOR 11/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY 2 A DAY RESEARCH MISSIONS
DEPARTING AT 10/0900Z AND 1700Z INTO THE SAME AREA.

note where the nhc is expecting the system to be on saturday....14N 64W...looks like they are leaning to a short term move to the west northwest to northwest as per the cmc

[ColinDelia]

[Weatherfreak000]

It appears to be organizing nicely today. I would increase percentages at 2 P.M.

[gatorcane]

The more quickly it organizes the more NW it goes as it will feel a weakness currently to the north of it.

[Gustywind]

Look at that dry air to the North... always persistent in the area.

[canes101]

This is an area that can quickly create monsters.

Yep.. And the one that comes to mind to me the Most is Charley of 2004.. I am in NO WAY SHAPE OR FORM saying this is or will be anything like Charley.. Track, Strength, or anything.. Just when I read your post about monsters starting in that area Charley just jumped right in my mind as a very memorable one.

92L System Track:

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... om=0&size=

Hurricane Charley System Track:

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... page&size=


http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... systempage

The two systems are starting in about the identical location (however Charley was a TD) and 92L is One month later (Charley - August 9th. 92L September 9th)

[JTD]

The more quickly it organizes the more NW it goes as it will feel a weakness currently to the north of it.

How far NW would we be talking about here? Is an above the Greater Antilles track possible?

[Steve]

>>I'll be interesting to read IF this storm develops on it's origins. It's possible that a weak tropical wave came in this area but it seems most of the energy is coming off the NE coast of S.A. I can't recall that happening before , I'm sure it probably has at sometime before but it must pretty rare.

It happens pretty regularly and is sometimes known as a South American Heat Low (misnomer, but that's for another day). That type of low (cooler water in the Pacific, warmer water to the east and warmer land) is somewhat a part of instability caused by temperature gradients. There are pros that could explain it better, but that's the layman's gist. While they can become tropical, I don't really remember the last named storm originating from that pattern, but you do sometimes see waves intersecting with low pressure in that area gain spin.

[Wx_Warrior]

Gator, I think that's what the 12z hints at near the end of the run.

[ColinDelia]

In 1984 Hurricane Klauss born in the same region after a week of bad weather...Same origin???

Great find. Sure sounds like it. Note that was in November, 1984.

Klauss @ 1984::
"A broad area of low pressure gradually developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean Sea on November 1. It moved slowly westward and steadily organized. By November 4, the system stalled to the north of Curacao, which was followed by a turn to the northeast. Convection slowly organized as a surface circulation formed, and on November 5 the system developed into Tropical Depression Fifteen. Initially weak with only 20 mph (32 km/h) winds, the depression steadily organized as it moved northeastward, and a Reconnaissance Aircraft mission confirmed the existence of the cyclone on November 6 as it was located midway between Puerto Rico and the Netherland Antilles. Late on the 6th, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Klaus while located a short distance south of Puerto Rico."