WPAC: FANAPI - Tropical Depression (1011/12W/Inday)

[supercane]

WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS AFTER PREVIOUSLY TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD. A MID-LATITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER KYUSHU HAS WEAKENED THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CREATING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND ENABLING
TS FANAPI TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AT THE SAME TIME, ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 152241Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION AS WELL AS VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. DUE TO STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE
TROUGH (WHICH IS STARTING TO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW), THE SYSTEM
HAS INTENSIFIED BY 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE ON VISUAL AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND PGTW OF 55 KNOTS AS WELL AS FROM DROPSONDES DEPLOYED
BY WC-130 AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE IN RESPONSE TO
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER CHINA.
B. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AND REACH TYPHOON
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WHILE DRIFTING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE, AS IT
CONTINUES TO TAP INTO THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE PASSING
TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS WESTWARD, IT WILL START TO LOSE ACCESS
TO THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW THOUGH FANAPI WILL STILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINED BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN INCREASINGLY TIGHTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
WESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK IS BASED ON CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER TAU 24 AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE NEAR-TERM INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
C. BEYOND 72 HOURS, TROPICAL STORM 12W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF TAIWAN. BY TAU 96,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO
TROPICAL STROM STRENGTH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT
DISSIPATES OVER CHINA.//




TXPN27 KNES 160311
SIMWIR
A. 12W (FANAPI)
B. 16/0232Z
C. 21.4N
D. 127.8E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...FT BASED ON PT. APPROXIMATELY 7 TENTHS BANDING SUGGESTS
A DT=3.0 BUT MET AND PT AGREE ON 3.5 WITH DETACHED BANDING TO THE EAST
OF CDO AND LLC.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
15/2059Z 21.3N 127.6E SSMI
15/2133Z 21.4N 127.5E SSMIS
15/2241Z 20.8N 127.6E SSMI
...BALDWIN
=

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[phwxenthusiast]

any recon reports??

[supercane]

Yes. FromITOP site:

327
URPA12 PGUA 160306

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/02:53:50Z
B. 21 deg 28 min N
128 deg 08 min E
C. 700 mb 2935 m
D. 63 kt
E. 240 deg 20 nm
F. 308 deg 63 kt
G. 239 deg 22 nm
H. 979 mb
I. 12 C / 3043 m
J. 18 C / 3041 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0.05 nm
P. AF304 0420W FANAPI OB 26
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT
MAX FL WIND 63 KT SW QUAD 23:27:10Z
;

ITOP_2010 Operations Plan of the Day

Date of report(UTC): 2010/09/16 01:10
Author of report: Pat Harr
Submitted at: 2010/09/16 01:42
Operations Summary:
ITOP20 is now TS Fanapi. The fourth surveillance flight is being flown with a center time of 0000 UTC 16 September. image1 This flight is being conducted in conjunction with a DOTSTAR mission (red track in image1 ). TS Fanapi has begun a slow turn to the northeast. The forecast is for a turn back to the west in about 36 h. image2
The decision to load the aircraft for the buoy and float deployment has been made. The deployment flight is scheduled to takeoff at 1800 UTC 16 September and will lay a line at the 0000 UTC 18 September position. image3 A mini-recco will be conducted following the buoy deployment. This mission will also be coordinated with DOTSTAR mission centered at 0000 UTC 17 September.

Because of the uncertainty in the forecast track of TS Fanapi, a somewhat detailed schedule has been defined so maximum flexibility could be maintained. image4 The 1330 UTC Go-NoGo meeting will define the end lines of the buoy deployment and the center for the mini-recco portions of the deployment flight. Because of the uncertainty in the turn to the west, the deployment flight may be canceled.

NOTE: an ocean targeting meeting will be held at 1600 UTC 16 September to update the likelihood of the forecast turn and the deployment mission.

At this time, the deployment mission may be canceled and a standard recco mission will be flown. Or, the deployment mission could be delayed. Finally, the deployment mission may be allowed to takeoff at 1800 UTC 16 September. If takeoff occurs, the buoy drop can be canceled up until the aircraft enters the buoy drop pattern. AF307 will be used for the buoy deployment. However, AF304 will also be prepped for the recco mission. A final option is cancellation of the buoy deployment and a delayed recco mission using AF304.

The R/V Revelle at the moorings and moving away from TS Fanapi. If the deployment mission occurs and Fanapi follows forecast track, then the Revelle may follow behind the storm in the wake. This plan will be defined in more detail over the next few days.

EOL and MBARI catalogs operational, Monterey and Guam support centers operational

SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVE(S):
Deployment of ocean buoys and floats plus a mini-recco into the storm center.
MISSION PLANS:

PRIMARY MISSION:
A buoy line will be deployed ahead of TS Fanapi. A mini-recco alpha pattern with 90 n mi legs will be flown following the buoy deployment enroute back to Guam
SECONDARY MISSION:
A standard reccon mission into TS Fanapi will be flown if the buoy deployment mission is canceled.

[senorpepr]

Here are some links to USAF Recon:

RECCOs: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... RPA11.PGUA
VDMs: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... RPA12.PGUA
HDObs: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... RPA15.PGUA
Drops: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... ZPA13.PGUA

Also, Taiwan is flying recon:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... ZPA13.RCTP

http://www.opennoaaport.net:8015/digatmos/drops/ (Look for UZPA13 RCTP bulletin headers)

[KWT]

Very interesting that recon is in there, I didn't know they do that sort of thing for WPAC storms normally?

Doesn't look quite as impressive right now IMO but the track has shifted to the south like I'd worried about and a bigger threat to Taiwan is now present then yesterday.

[Chacor]

The USAF is flying recon as part of ITOP; in 2008 they flew as part of TPARC. Both are scientific/educational research multi-nation programmes.

[KWT]

Ah ok thats interesting, maybe an idea to open up a recon page for this system then given the missions that are occuring into Fanapi?

[dexterlabio]

It's TYPHOON Fanapi.

TPPN10 PGTW 161229

A. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI)

B. 16/1132Z

C. 22.0N

D. 128.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
CNVCTN WRAPS 1.30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL PLUS BANDING FEATURE YIELDING
4.0 DT. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/0707Z 21.5N 128.2E TRMM
16/0848Z 21.7N 128.2E SSMS
16/0956Z 21.6N 128.3E SSMS


ROSS

[dexterlabio]

TY 1011 (Fanapi)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 16 September 2010
<Analyses at 16/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N21°40'(21.7°)
E128°30'(128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E310km(170NM)
W240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 17/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°20'(23.3°)
E128°00'(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 18/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°05'(24.1°)
E125°00'(125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°55'(24.9°)
E121°30'(121.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

The plain-text version of that advisory:

WTPQ20 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1011 FANAPI (1011) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 21.7N 128.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 170NM EAST 130NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 23.3N 128.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 181200UTC 24.1N 125.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 191200UTC 24.9N 121.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

[dexterlabio]

Why do I hear recon in West Pacific only now? I thought they only do that in the Atlantic...

[StormingB81]

someone thinks it may come near Okinawa.

[img][/img]

[Chacor]

Why do I hear recon in West Pacific only now? I thought they only do that in the Atlantic...

Recon is most common in the Atlantic. In the EPac and CPac it's used on occasion when Hawaii/Mexico is threatened by a strong hurricane. As said above, recon in the WPac this year (and two years ago) are only as part of scientific research; Taiwan is the only country to do any sort of regular recon (in the form of dropsondes).

[Chacor]

someone thinks it may come near Okinawa.

Btw you only need one set of [img] tags, not two. Those are model runs, not official forecasts.

[StormingB81]

ohhh...learned something new..and sorry i keep hitting post reply and image thing..so i guess photo bucket already put the img thingy on there when i copy it.

[Macrocane]

Fanapi looks very good this morning, In my UNOFFICIAL opinion it oculd be the 2nd major typhoon of the season. I have a friend in Taiwan so I'm monitoring closely the progress of Fanapi.

[dexterlabio]

Fanapi might get stronger than currently predicted IMO. ECM shows a large and powerful typhoon over Taiwan this Sunday.

[supercane]

Catch-up advisory:
SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 008
WTPN31 PGTW 161500
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 21.9N 128.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 128.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.5N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.1N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.5N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.8N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.3N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.1N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 27.4N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 128.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WAS
UPGRADED TO TYPHOON STRENGTH BASED ON IMPROVED CENTRAL
CONVECTION AS EVIDENCED BY A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD HAVE INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN




WTPQ50 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 22.1N 128.4E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 160NM EAST 130NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 23.3N 127.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 181800UTC 24.3N 123.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 191800UTC 24.6N 120.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 201800UTC 25.5N 116.8E 280NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
120HF 211800UTC 26.7N 114.0E 375NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT =