ATL: LISA - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

strong vorticity

[Frank2]

No worries with 94L - the next one, well...

We shall see...

Frank

[Florida1118]

No worries with 94L - the next one, well...

We shall see...

Frank

Yup. Lisa will hopefully be a Julia and just add ACE. Matthew...well he may be a trouble maker...I know 94L isnt a large concern and Igor is the main focus but a 80% system with 4 pages?

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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER
TODAY OR ON MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 5 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[OURAGAN]

Why they say Northwest? i don't understand?

[Weatherfreak000]

Development looking very strong now. Lisa here we come! Maybe a minimal TD already.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 94, 2010091918, , BEST, 0, 153N, 310W, 25, 1008, DB

No upgrade yet but that could change.

[Aric Dunn]

No reason why this should not be TD right now. I would think they would upgrade today at some point.

[Florida1118]

No reason why this should not be TD right now. I would think they would upgrade today at some point.

I agree. Plenty of convection, a circulation...at least 25kts. We still got another hour so they may upgrade it.

[Vortmax1]

I agree. Plenty of convection, a circulation...at least 25kts. We still got another hour so they may upgrade it.

I don't know what visible satellite views y'all have been observing ...but the limited ones I have available for that area are not definitive enough for me.
Based on the IR Sat shots I doubt this one is ready for TD status yet.

[Florida1118]

I agree. Plenty of convection, a circulation...at least 25kts. We still got another hour so they may upgrade it.

I don't know what visible satellite views y'all have been observing ...but the limited ones I have available for that area are not definitive enough for me.
Based on the IR Sat shots I doubt this one isready for TD status yet.

I guess we'll see who wins in 30 min or so

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

It has a nice circulation and enough convection to be upgraded, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC wait a little longer.

[ColinDelia]

A little elongated but 110 units max of 850 mb vorticity and a VERY large area of 50 units of vorticity.

SHIPS and LGEM like this (70knots, 82 knots in 5 days respectively) but the 18z used the BAMM track - which is quite different than the globals.

850 mb vorticity

[Florida1118]

Looks like we'll wait until later for a upgrade.

[Migle]

I am expecting it early tomorrow morning. No reason to right now being so far out and the NHC rarely upgrades things overnight.

[Shuriken]

No reason why this should not be TD right now. I would think they would upgrade today at some point.

I agree. Plenty of convection, a circulation...at least 25kts. We still got another hour so they may upgrade it.

What absent criteria are they waiting for?

[FLpanhandle91]

Circulation is a little elongated and weak at the surface in my opinion. Very well defined mid-upper level circulation however.

[KWT]

Its pretty close to being a TD right now, which is obviously why the NHC have upped it to 80% now...but I agree probably going to wait just a smidge longer, no rush given its not going to be a threat to any land.

[Florida1118]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Migle]

ABNT20 KNHC 192342
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL STORM JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1280 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[HURAKAN]

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