ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[KWT]

Yeah Vortex, the only thing that makes me feel a little bit more at east is the fact the models have joined the GFS idea and have moved a little to the east, I wouldn't be all that surprised if another slight eastward adjustment will occur.

Either way Bahamas will get clobbered even if somehow Florida don't.

[tampastorm]

18.4-88.0, maybe that is correct looks like a nice burst there. If so that was unexpected.

[Aric Dunn]

Should be a sheared low/storm as it passes south FL, with most, if not all heavy squalls and strong wind east of the track. So if the center was to pass over or near the SE FL Peninsula, then most of the heavy rain and wind could miss FL to the east.

That would be good news if that was to occur, the models suggest its going to be a very tight call though in that respect, certainly tight enough for the models to not have a good grip on the exacts till we are near that hour...

Of course as we've seen before what was expected to be a sheared storm by the model becomes an unexpected hurricane/or stronger storm then expected...things are made even more complex with interactions with frontal systems.

yeah well we all know what a little baroclynic enhancement can do ( i.e Charley, Irene ... many more examples since it was heavily studied)

[cycloneye]

Maybe, the change of the initial position responds to what the predict team has for pouch PGI50L, a center inland.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... 111&loop=0

[sfwx]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 271947
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
347 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...

...WET AND STORMY MID WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

NOW-TUES...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MORE ACTIVE THAN IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE KICKING
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER. OFF
TO OUR NORTHWEST...FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...CURRENTLY INTO CITRUS...MARION AND SAINT
JOHNS COUNTIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL FOCUS ON THE
MENAGERIE OF BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SEA
BREEZE AND ONGOING ACTIVITY...WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SEA
BREEZE AND THE FRONTAL PRECIP BAND BECOMING DOMINANT LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO AND POINTS NORTH. WITH THE CUT
OFF LOW CURRENTLY SWINGING ACROSS AL/MS AND THE FAR WEST FL
PANHANDLE...FRONT SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 60% OVER THE SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AS PRESENCE
OF FRONT AND SSW FLOW TAPPING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN MOISTURE WILL
BRING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER OVER TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE IN THE MID 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 90 IN THE INTERIOR.

TUES NIGHT-WED NIGHT...WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH EACH
RUN...THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE EASTWARD SOLUTION THAT THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE ACROSS SRN AND CTRL FL AND THEN INTO THE
ATLANTIC. ORIENTATION OF SLP/VORT AND PRECIP FIELDS INDICATE
INCREASING BAROCLINIC INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE
SFC FRONT/MID LEVEL TROUGH...BECOMING SORT OF "RIGHT-SIDED" SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES NWD. WHETHER THE LOW IS TROPICAL IN NATURE OR NOT...A
WET AND STORMY TWO DAYS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST MODEL...THE GFS THE
FASTEST...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF A CURRENT ORGANIZED SYSTEM IN THE
AREA SLOWER SEEMS THE WAY TO GO. HPC PROGS HAVE A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE SLOW SIDE.

LATEST HPC QPF TOTALS SUGGEST AROUND 3.0 INCHES NW TO 6.0 INCHES
SOUTHEAST...WHICH ARE AREAL AVERAGES...AND LOCAL MAXIMA CAN
EASILY EXCEED THOSE AMOUNTS. THE MORE EASTERLY TRACK THE MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARDS WOULD KEEP THE EXTREMELY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST... ESPECIALLY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
PARALLEL LATE WED NIGHT.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THU-SUN...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME BECOME
GREATER AS TIME GOES ON. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS AND CONTINUING LACK OF CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IN
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LOW. HAVE INDICATED ENHANCED POPS
THROUGH THURS THEN TRENDED BACK A BIT UNTIL SIGNALS BECOME
CLEARER...BUT KEEPING SCATTERED POPS IN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ALONG COAST FROM BREVARD
COUNTY SOUTHWARDS INTO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. FRONTAL PRECIP BAND
DROPPING INTO FAR NW (VCNTY KLEE) AFTER 21Z WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA
SLOWLY MOVING INTO ORLANDO METRO AFTER 23Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER ORLANDO METRO AND VOLUSIA BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES WITH
ECSB. COVERAGE BECOMING ISOLD AFTER 04Z AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH. TEMPO
IFR/MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTAIN GUSTS TO 30 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SSE FLOW WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 KTS NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 15 KTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS REMAIN SHORT AND CHOPPY WITH HEIGHTS 4-5 FT AT 6-7
SEC. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND VEER TO THE S/SW OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS FRONT NEARS N CENTRAL FL.

OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK WILL BE FOR CONTINUATION
OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AND OVERALL DETERIORATION OF BOATING
CONDITIONS. THIS OCCURRING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN DRIFTS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY WED AND THURS. MAY NEED HEADLINES FOR
AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS AND SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE LEG BY LATE TUES
OR EARLY WED. SPECIFIC DETAILS GET HARDER TO PIN DOWN THROUGH TIME
AS WITH EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
NW CARIB UNCLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 87 74 86 / 40 50 50 60
MCO 74 89 73 87 / 40 50 30 50
MLB 75 87 75 87 / 40 60 60 70
VRB 75 88 77 87 / 40 60 70 70
LEE 73 90 73 88 / 40 50 30 40
SFB 74 89 74 87 / 40 50 40 50
ORL 75 90 74 87 / 40 50 30 50
FPR 75 87 76 86 / 40 60 70 70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER GRAPHICAST....CRISTALDI

[artist]

ok, if anyone can read this here is the flight data (I think)from earlier-
http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/pre ... C=20100927

[HURAKAN]

NWS Miami raises the rain chances for Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

[Aric Dunn]

finally some NE winds ..

cancun.. http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMUN.html

looks like a borad weak LLC exactly where btangy said the research mission found one.

[artist]

NWS Miami raises the rain chances for Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

same for up here in Palm Beach.

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe, the change of the initial position responds to what the predict team has for pouch PGI50L, a center inland.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... 111&loop=0

that has been there all day.. before the flight..

[wxman57]

Latest satellite/sfc obs with new NHC initialization point (18.4N/88W). Obs do show a weak low there. If it did form farther west, then there's a better chance it would impact south Florida on Wednesday.

[Vortmax1]

The PREDICT team has never completely given up on the Remnants of Matthew being involved.
Is that the reason for the Yucatan initialization now?

[gatorcane]

Hmmm well 96L is finally here. I do think there is a chance all of this misses south florida to the east.....but if the low is further west, maybe not.

[Vortex]

Based on the 20z vis it certainly looks like the low east of the yucatan is going to be the main low...

[wxman57]

Maybe, the change of the initial position responds to what the predict team has for pouch PGI50L, a center inland.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... 111&loop=0

that has been there all day.. before the flight..

It wasn't there before this afternoon. I was looking at the website all morning and it just had Matthew's remnants in south Mexico and no PGI50L at all.

[cycloneye]

57, is what the predict team has and the models iniciated are the leftovers of Matthew emerging the Yucatan?

[Vortex]

could the low east of the yucatan hold back(2nd storm) and a vorticity spin north over or just east of fl rotating around the gyre...just a thought

[wxman57]

57, is what the predict team has and the models inicated are the leftovers of Matthew emerging the Yucatan?

No, PGI146L is located over southern Mexico just south of the BoC. This is a separate feature. The 12Z GFS takes Matthew's remnants east into the NW Caribbean by this Friday and develops another storm out of it.

[Vortex]

57, is what the predict team has and the models inicated are the leftovers of Matthew emerging the Yucatan?

No, PGI146L is located over southern Mexico just south of the BoC. This is a separate feature. The 12Z GFS takes Matthew's remnants east into the NW Caribbean by this Friday and develops another storm out of it.

I guess not...Wxman57 how realistic is the GFS sceario in your opnion?

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe, the change of the initial position responds to what the predict team has for pouch PGI50L, a center inland.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... 111&loop=0

that has been there all day.. before the flight..

It wasn't there before this afternoon. I was looking at the website all morning and it just had Matthew's remnants in south Mexico and no PGI50L at all.

well I had it up at about 1130 when i got off work so since at least then.