ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

[Vortex]

The Great Barbados Hurricane...Let us not forget its not too late.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Hurricane_of_1780

[SouthDadeFish]

If you look at SST charts they show the area just E of the southern Antilles is the warmest in Atlantic right now. This explains how the Great Hurricane of 1780 could get that strong during this time of year.

[cycloneye]

Look at that circulation around 10N-50W that our friend from the predict team btangy said earlier about the increased vorticity down there.

[Vortex]

Hats off too btangy and predict...tight little swirl there...looking forward to what they may or may not find at the surface

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Posted by: JeffMasters, 14:23 GMT le 30 septembre 2010

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.
Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

[btangy]

Hats off too btangy and predict...tight little swirl there...looking forward to what they may or may not find at the surface

The G-V just dropped its last dropsonde, so PREDICT is about to conclude operations. I'll be working on the 925 mb streamline analysis in the next hour. I think you'll agree that 97L is not looking too shabby.

[wxman57]

PREDICT identifies the disturbance as the leading edge of the crest of the wave near 14N/47W rather than between two waves near 10N/50W. I'd look for development associated with the energy near the crest of the wave.

Speaking of PREDICT, is today the last day of the project? The web page says "Campaign Finished" on Friday's planning map.

[Vortex]

As far as track during the next 5 days and forecasted synoptics and how this evolves...CMC looks reasonable...

[Vortex]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Posted by: JeffMasters, 14:23 GMT le 30 septembre 2010

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.
Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Add the canadian now

[Blown Away]

As far as track during the next 5 days and forecasted synoptics and how this evolves...CMC looks reasonable...

That would be close for Florida but it looks like it would turn north at the Bahamas?

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010093018, , BEST, 0, 120N, 510W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Vortex]

the more robust models developing the system appear to take it more NW the next 2 or so days then back to the west beyond 72 hours as ridging builds to the NW of the system...

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Blown Away]

the more robust models developing the system appear to take it more NW the next 2 or so days then back to the west beyond 72 hours as ridging builds to the NW of the system...

So do you think it could make it to Fl/GOM? Noticed the 06z BAMS initialized at 13.1N and Best track is 12.0N, that may make a difference for the Islands??

[cycloneye]

This is not the 97L models thread as this is the main discussion thread for 97L.Thank you for your cooperation. The model runs were moved to the 97L models thread.

[abajan]

If you look at SST charts they show the area just E of the southern Antilles is the warmest in Atlantic right now. This explains how the Great Hurricane of 1780 could get that strong during this time of year.

Considering that hurricane was 230 years ago, the climate may have changed, if ever so slightly. But yes, I’ve also noticed that the sea surface temps in this region are the warmest in the Atlantic.
Welcome to S2K, BTW!

EDIT: A more recent event that might be more important, climatologically speaking, is the 1970 flood which occurred on... wait for it... October 1st!
Some sources say it was a tropical depression and others say it was just an area of disturbed weather. Whatever it was, parts of Barbados got slammed with over 20 inches of rain in just a few hours.

[Weatherfreak000]

Looking incredible this afternoon, the amount of energy in the Caribbean is amazing too. What a season!

50% at 8

Edit: The structure on MIMIC as the promets have been saying is absolutely incredible. I think CMC Major Hurricane may possibly verify and if the track does, we may have a serious problem.

[cycloneye]

This is not the 97L models thread. All runs are being posted there.Thank you for your cooperation. The model runs were moved to the 97L models thread.

Picky, picky, picky... Many of the 97L's comments had Discussion/Model combo question/answers. J/K I will comply.

You can talk here about the model scenarios. But posting the runs like links or graphics are for the models thread.

[gatorcane]

ECMWF keeps recurving this system. I see a possible fish if it heads north of the islands.

[HURAKAN]

72 hours