ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[Vortex]

visible through 1445Z... continues to slowly organize...Also, appears the center is further wsw than where the NHC has placed the invest. This may effect later model output given the initialization was further east for the earlier package..somewhat broad but tightening and I have a center around 12.7/80.2

[Sanibel]

Still attempting to twist up down deep in the SW Caribbean near 12N-81W Could be too far west at that location to stay over water.

Dry MJO phase won't help it. Still at bears watching state for now. Probably another 2010 potential storm that got nixed by some prevailing condition or weather feature that didn't line-up.

[HURAKAN]

maybe 30% at 2 pm

[sunnyday]

Sanibel, you hit the nail on the head when you mentioned those 2010 storms that didn't develop because they "got nixed" by some weather problems or that they just didin't line up. The story of the season imo (I'm aware of the ones that affected the islands, etc., and I am sorry for the damage they did there).

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Looking great

[wxman57]

The way it's wrapping up now, it could be a TD today. Surface obs show a well-defined LLC now with convection near the center. Maybe 70-80% within 48 hrs.

[KWT]

Probably will go right upto 50-60% I'd iamgine for the reasons Wxman57 suggests, looking good right now IMO!

If it does form quickly then there is no reason why this won't be a major hurricane IMO as long as it doesn't eject from the Caribbean too rapidly...

[northjaxpro]

The way it's wrapping up now, it could be a TD today. Maybe 70-80% within 48 hrs.

98L is improving in its structure this afternoon and convection is definitely beginning to band and fire near the developing LLC. If these trends continue, it is possible that 98L could get upgraded to TD status within 24 hours at the earliest. I think T.S. Paula will be born by sometime on Monday imo.

[wxman57]

Still only 30%. I don't think they're paying close enough attention to this disturbance.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm surprised only 30%. With model support and current organization trends you would think the NHC would jump to 40-50%. It's still code orange, but more reasonable.

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 545 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED 150 MILES EAST OF SAN
ANDRES ISLAND HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[wxman57]

Well-defined LLC by surface obs:

[SFLcane]

wxman57 what do you make of the HWRF/GFDL intensity outputs? I think that shear zone around 23-25N isn't going anywere anytime soon. Plenty of dry air around to.

could be a significant problem for cuba though.

[wxman57]

wxman57 what do you make of the HWRF/GFDL intensity outputs? I think that shear zone around 23-25N isn't going anywere anytime soon. Plenty of dry air around to.

could be a significant problem for cuba though.

I think there's certainly hurricane potential in the NW Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

wxman57 what do you make of the HWRF/GFDL intensity outputs? I think that shear zone around 23-25N isn't going anywere anytime soon. Plenty of dry air around to.

could be a significant problem for cuba though.

I think there's certainly hurricane potential in the NW Caribbean.

Thanks for the quick responce...appreciate it.

[SouthDadeFish]

98L might brush Central America before it continues Northward.

[cycloneye]

57, another quick question. Do you see it moving into Central America or it tracks NW thru water until it gets to Cuba?

[northjaxpro]

98L might brush Central America before it continues Northward.

If you believe the recent NAM model run, it is moving 98L NW in the short term, which would take it very near the Yucatan Peninsula in 72 hours. We will see if that verifies, but my thinking is it will meander around slowly until moving mostly northward. I think 98L will probably remain over the bath water of the NW Caribbean until affecting Cuba early next week.

[SFLcane]

Floater up now for 98L...http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

[SouthDadeFish]

CIMSS shear charts show an anticyclone slowly approaching 98L.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=