ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 52
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#61 Postby Vortex » Sat Oct 09, 2010 10:33 am

visible through 1445Z... continues to slowly organize...Also, appears the center is further wsw than where the NHC has placed the invest. This may effect later model output given the initialization was further east for the earlier package..somewhat broad but tightening and I have a center around 12.7/80.2
Last edited by Vortex on Sat Oct 09, 2010 10:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion

#62 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 09, 2010 10:33 am

Still attempting to twist up down deep in the SW Caribbean near 12N-81W Could be too far west at that location to stay over water.

Dry MJO phase won't help it. Still at bears watching state for now. Probably another 2010 potential storm that got nixed by some prevailing condition or weather feature that didn't line-up.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#63 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 09, 2010 11:14 am

Image

maybe 30% at 2 pm
0 likes   

User avatar
sunnyday
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1580
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 8:16 pm

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion

#64 Postby sunnyday » Sat Oct 09, 2010 11:25 am

Sanibel, you hit the nail on the head when you mentioned those 2010 storms that didn't develop because they "got nixed" by some weather problems or that they just didin't line up. The story of the season imo (I'm aware of the ones that affected the islands, etc., and I am sorry for the damage they did there).
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#65 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 09, 2010 11:26 am

0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22505
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion

#66 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 09, 2010 12:22 pm

The way it's wrapping up now, it could be a TD today. Surface obs show a well-defined LLC now with convection near the center. Maybe 70-80% within 48 hrs.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31391
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#67 Postby KWT » Sat Oct 09, 2010 12:25 pm

Probably will go right upto 50-60% I'd iamgine for the reasons Wxman57 suggests, looking good right now IMO!

If it does form quickly then there is no reason why this won't be a major hurricane IMO as long as it doesn't eject from the Caribbean too rapidly...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion

#68 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Oct 09, 2010 12:26 pm

wxman57 wrote:The way it's wrapping up now, it could be a TD today. Maybe 70-80% within 48 hrs.


98L is improving in its structure this afternoon and convection is definitely beginning to band and fire near the developing LLC. If these trends continue, it is possible that 98L could get upgraded to TD status within 24 hours at the earliest. I think T.S. Paula will be born by sometime on Monday imo.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22505
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion

#69 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 09, 2010 12:37 pm

Still only 30%. I don't think they're paying close enough attention to this disturbance.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

#70 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Oct 09, 2010 12:51 pm

I'm surprised only 30%. With model support and current organization trends you would think the NHC would jump to 40-50%. It's still code orange, but more reasonable.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139593
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion

#71 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 09, 2010 12:52 pm

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 545 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED 150 MILES EAST OF SAN
ANDRES ISLAND HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22505
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion

#72 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 09, 2010 12:58 pm

Well-defined LLC by surface obs:
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9626
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion - Code Orange 30%

#73 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 09, 2010 1:05 pm

wxman57 what do you make of the HWRF/GFDL intensity outputs? I think that shear zone around 23-25N isn't going anywere anytime soon. Plenty of dry air around to.

could be a significant problem for cuba though.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22505
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion - Code Orange 30%

#74 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 09, 2010 1:08 pm

SFLcane wrote:wxman57 what do you make of the HWRF/GFDL intensity outputs? I think that shear zone around 23-25N isn't going anywere anytime soon. Plenty of dry air around to.

could be a significant problem for cuba though.


I think there's certainly hurricane potential in the NW Caribbean.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9626
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion - Code Orange 30%

#75 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 09, 2010 1:09 pm

wxman57 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:wxman57 what do you make of the HWRF/GFDL intensity outputs? I think that shear zone around 23-25N isn't going anywere anytime soon. Plenty of dry air around to.

could be a significant problem for cuba though.


I think there's certainly hurricane potential in the NW Caribbean.



Thanks for the quick responce...appreciate it.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

#76 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Oct 09, 2010 1:10 pm

98L might brush Central America before it continues Northward.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139593
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion - Code Orange 30%

#77 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 09, 2010 1:15 pm

57, another quick question. Do you see it moving into Central America or it tracks NW thru water until it gets to Cuba?
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re:

#78 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Oct 09, 2010 1:17 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:98L might brush Central America before it continues Northward.


If you believe the recent NAM model run, it is moving 98L NW in the short term, which would take it very near the Yucatan Peninsula in 72 hours. We will see if that verifies, but my thinking is it will meander around slowly until moving mostly northward. I think 98L will probably remain over the bath water of the NW Caribbean until affecting Cuba early next week.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Oct 09, 2010 1:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9626
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion - Code Orange 30%

#79 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 09, 2010 1:20 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

#80 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Oct 09, 2010 1:25 pm

0 likes   


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests