ATL: PAULA - Models

[Vortex]

6Z HWRF a little closer to SE FL than the 00Z.


http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... 6_wind.png

[jlauderdal]

6Z HWRF a little closer to SE FL than the 00Z.


http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... 6_wind.png

based on that track and error it would certainly make us gas up the generator

[Vortex]

00Z UKMET approaching western cuba on day 5


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif

[Vortex]

6Z HWRF loop..


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[DanKellFla]

Well, South Florida could use a RAIN event before we go into the dry season....

[HeatherAKC]

Hmmmmm. Groundhog Day?

Can't help to be skeptical.

Storm off to our SE through the Straights shouldn't be too bad.

[gatorcane]

I wonder if the hurricane models are trying to eject this system out if the Caribbean too quickly?

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL continues very bullish on intensity.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 091249
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC SAT OCT 9 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101009 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101009  1200   101010  0000   101010  1200   101011  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.3N  79.5W   13.4N  80.4W   13.4N  81.5W   13.6N  82.7W
BAMD    13.3N  79.5W   13.7N  80.4W   14.1N  81.3W   14.5N  82.3W
BAMM    13.3N  79.5W   13.6N  80.3W   13.9N  81.4W   14.3N  82.5W
LBAR    13.3N  79.5W   14.0N  80.4W   15.4N  81.2W   17.4N  81.6W
SHIP        25KTS          25KTS          29KTS          35KTS
DSHP        25KTS          25KTS          29KTS          35KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101011  1200   101012  1200   101013  1200   101014  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.4N  84.0W   13.5N  87.6W   13.0N  91.6W   11.5N  96.5W
BAMD    15.0N  83.6W   16.4N  87.4W   18.6N  91.0W   19.8N  93.2W
BAMM    14.7N  83.9W   15.5N  87.3W   16.1N  90.7W   15.3N  94.0W
LBAR    19.6N  81.4W   24.8N  78.6W   29.3N  70.0W   30.6N  54.3W
SHIP        43KTS          56KTS          54KTS          41KTS
DSHP        33KTS          28KTS          27KTS          26KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.3N LONCUR =  79.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  13.4N LONM12 =  78.4W DIRM12 = 258DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
LATM24 =  13.7N LONM24 =  78.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[AdamFirst]

These model tracks are similar to a hurricane michelle situation back in 2001.

[srainhoutx]

These model tracks are similar to a hurricane michelle situation back in 2001.

It does somewhat remind me of Michelle (2001). The timing is a bit earlier as Michelle passed the Lower Keys in late October versus mid October. We will see. A slower developing system as well as a bit slower moving, (meandering) could bring areas of S FL into the picture IMO. Time will tell.

[SouthDadeFish]

NAM continues its same ways at 84 hours with what appears to be a hurricane in the NW Carib.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_084l.gif

[Vortex]

12Z Nam Loop...continues with strengthening hurricane over NW carribean...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Vortex]

500MB loop...pretty impressive...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Sanibel]

Remember NAM had Matthew shooting the Yucatan Channel. How that will translate to this system I don't know, but the synoptic shows a Michelle-like hard right turn. Michelle had me trembling until it turned.

[sunnyday]

Of course, everyone anywhere near the area of a possible storm should watch very closely. However, S Fl has been in the possible danger zone how many times this season? And they haven't seen a whole lot from any of the storms so far. I hope they stay lucky down there. As I've said before, they seem to lead a charmed life since 2004-05.

[SouthDadeFish]

So I don't understand what happened to the forecasted shear belt over S FL? The GFDL and HWRF don't seem to weaken the storm that much as it approaches S FL besides land interaction.

[SFLcane]

12z HWRF still intensifies this pretty good but weakens it pretty quickly over cuba.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010100912-invest98l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[SFLcane]

12z canadian doesn't do much with it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010100912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[SFLcane]

12z canadian doesn't do much with it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010100912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation