ATL: RICHARD - Models

[caneseddy]

18z NAM has shifted just a bit north from its previous runs and is much stronger; it still has Richard doing the loop but rather than impacting Central America on the Nicaragua/Honduras border as it has shown previously it now maintains it over the Caribbean north of Honduras

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[plasticup]

GFDL shows it peaking at 114 knots (almost cat 4) near Cuba, where it stays mostly offshore near the Isle of Youth. HWRF shows the storm weaker and slightly further south, bumping into the southern Yucatan on day 5.

The weak steering currents should make for a very interesting setup.

[calmbeforestorm1]

GFDL shows it peaking at 114 knots (almost cat 4) near Cuba, where it stays mostly offshore near the Isle of Youth. HWRF shows the storm weaker and slightly further south, bumping into the southern Yucatan on day 5.

The weak steering currents should make for a very interesting setup.

I think a stronger storm as the GFDL depicts goes further north and may even drift to above Cuba. The GFDL has 99L a hurricane at 48 hours and none of the models which take the system into C.A. or the Yucatan show hardly any development execept the HRWF which develops it later in it's run. If you look at the GFS at 48-72 hours it shows weak steering currents at the mid and upper levels. I think early developement is the key to where this goes.

[caneseddy]

FWIW...18Z GFS has the storm a bit further north as well.....identical to the 18z NAM which keeps it just offshore rather than piling it into Nicaragua as it was depicting earlier

[srainhoutx]

18Z GFDL and HWRF are out. GFDL take this to the Yucatan Channel as a Major Hurricane and the HWRF suggests a Yucatan strike, but much weaker.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

They start as Disturbance invest, not with a renumber. Unless they update later and upgrade to TD before 11 PM.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 200034
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0034 UTC WED OCT 20 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20101020 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101020  0000   101020  1200   101021  0000   101021  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.6N  83.4W   18.4N  83.4W   18.5N  83.1W   17.8N  83.1W
BAMD    17.6N  83.4W   19.0N  82.5W   20.3N  80.8W   21.6N  78.4W
BAMM    17.6N  83.4W   18.3N  83.2W   18.7N  82.9W   18.3N  82.7W
LBAR    17.6N  83.4W   18.6N  83.0W   19.9N  82.3W   21.4N  81.6W
SHIP        30KTS          33KTS          35KTS          37KTS
DSHP        30KTS          33KTS          35KTS          37KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101022  0000   101023  0000   101024  0000   101025  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.8N  83.5W   15.2N  85.5W   14.5N  89.4W   14.6N  93.5W
BAMD    23.5N  75.1W   28.9N  63.9W   33.5N  47.8W   36.1N  38.9W
BAMM    17.7N  83.0W   16.6N  85.5W   16.3N  90.1W   17.0N  94.8W
LBAR    23.4N  80.2W   29.8N  74.5W   33.1N  60.6W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        39KTS          41KTS          50KTS          53KTS
DSHP        39KTS          41KTS          34KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.6N LONCUR =  83.4W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   2KT
LATM12 =  16.7N LONM12 =  83.3W DIRM12 = 348DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  15.3N LONM24 =  82.8W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[gatorcane]

The GFS by day 6 shows a cutoff low and a shortwave heading towards the GOM:

[xironman]

0z GDFL still insisting on development



CMC is weak



HWRF is south



GFS way south and weak



Euro agrees with GFS

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z note....GFS for 1st time moves low north of belize before the magic morph into the pacific which is closer to the rest of the modeling...is it coming around ?

[KWT]

ECM/GFS make no sense given the low is clearly well north of where they have it developing, so unless it tracks back SSW in the next 3 days it seems they have rather odd solutions.

[Vortex]

6Z HWRF further north with a strong hurricane in the SE gulf at the end of the run...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

Yep it does get pretty strong on the 06z HWRF, upto 105kts in fact!

[Blown Away]

6Z HWRF further north with a strong hurricane in the SE gulf at the end of the run...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Looking at the end run, it appears the west side of the circulation flattens a little. I wonder if 99L is feeling a trough approaching and will turn 99L NE? Can you get these types of hints from looking at the graphic presentation of the model?

[Vortex]

6Z GFDL continues to insist for several runs now that this system will also end up in the SE gulf(very similar to 6Z HWRF) passing through the yucatan channel with a 140kt storm...




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[ronjon]

06Z GFS 500 mb charts show a trough digging down into the NW gulf coast turning the mid-level steering to the SW in 5 to 6 days. IF, and this is a big IF, 99L develops along the lines of HWRF and GFDL, it should be guided somewhere toward the western FL peninsula - likely from Tampa to Naples according to the models. A saving grace, however, is that 200 mb winds will be screaming out of the W-SW at 30 to 50 kts so I would see significant weakening after 5 days if that was to occur.

[caneseddy]

12z model tracks

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_99.gif

[caneseddy]

12Z NAM looks to take 99L on a loop and impact it into Nicaragua/Honduras a strong storm

[ronjon]

Things might get interesting next week if 99L manages to make it into the GOM. 200 mb winds go from 30-50 kts to less than 10 kts.

[HurricaneRobert]

[dwsqos2]

The 12Z CMC does very little with 99L. That's never a good sign for tc-lovers.