ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[chrisnnavarre]

If it interacts with Earl at all, it will mean a weaker storm in the earlier stages, right?? Doesn't weak normally mean west, and if Earl increases forward speed this might not follow along behind him? Maybe it really does get trapped under a ridge and into Florida at some point... I would guess that the next 24 hours would tell us more, i.e. if Earl reaches his 311800z point earlier than predicted then Fiona might survive and move westward. What are conditions for strengthening if this were to happen? I know there's a loop current west of Florida, that was what happened with Katrina right?

[I-wall]

If Fiona becomes a hurricane and catches Earl it could establish a Fujiwara effect and drive Earl more towards the coast. I won't hazard a guess however on a prediction.

I think Fiona would have to rapidly intensify for that to happen. If they got anywhere close to eachother and Fiona is still weak, i'd expect Earl's outflow to cause Fiona to shear apart.

[Gustywind]

NRL http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
20100830.2215.08LFIONA.35kts-1007mb-142N-477W.

[Buck]

Yes, Fiona is looking pretty terrible in the last few frames. If it gets any closer to Earl, it might get sheared apart to the point of being so weak it won't get swept up north. In this case, it might die... or it might regenerate after Earl gets out of her hair and head west.

[Gustywind]

[CrazyC83]

Yes, Fiona is looking pretty terrible in the last few frames. If it gets any closer to Earl, it might get sheared apart to the point of being so weak it won't get swept up north. In this case, it might die... or it might regenerate after Earl gets out of her hair and head west.

That would be sort of like Edouard and Fran in 1996?

[wxman57]

Long day at work. I notice an inconsistency in the initial NHC track and intensity forecast. The track is sort of a compromise due to the uncertainty. And it's pretty much assured to be wrong. They talk of a possible interaction with Earl but at Fiona's day 4-5 points, Earl is a distant memory located north of Newfoundland. So either Earl's outflow kills Fiona by then, something that's quite possible, or Fiona is blocked by high pressure in the wake of Earl and is intensifying.

I'm not sure which scenario will pan out either, so maybe a compromise path is the best solution for now. And that's why the NHC went with the compromise.

[gatorcane]

The GFS model has consistently been showing Earl eating up Fiona. It has shown this run-after-run but yet I don't see many many discussing this scenario. In my opinion it has been quite plausible even looking at the situation days ago. Now I see other models such as the CMC (which I don't see talked about much anymore now that it is not showing a US landfall) are shifting to the GFS solution.

Also, Fiona looks rather unimpressive today and things will only get worse for her as she nears massive Earl. She actually looked better a couple of days ago.

[RL3AO]

Long day at work. I notice an inconsistency in the initial NHC track and intensity forecast. The track is sort of a compromise due to the uncertainty. And it's pretty much assured to be wrong. They talk of a possible interaction with Earl but at Fiona's day 4-5 points, Earl is a distant memory located north of Newfoundland. So either Earl's outflow kills Fiona by then, something that's quite possible, or Fiona is blocked by high pressure in the wake of Earl and is intensifying.

I'm not sure which scenario will pan out either, so maybe a compromise path is the best solution for now. And that's why the NHC went with the compromise.

No doubt. Better what they did then forecast a 90kt cane in the Bahamas and then have Fiona dead by tomorrow morning.

[Evil Jeremy]

Long day at work. I notice an inconsistency in the initial NHC track and intensity forecast. The track is sort of a compromise due to the uncertainty. And it's pretty much assured to be wrong. They talk of a possible interaction with Earl but at Fiona's day 4-5 points, Earl is a distant memory located north of Newfoundland. So either Earl's outflow kills Fiona by then, something that's quite possible, or Fiona is blocked by high pressure in the wake of Earl and is intensifying.

I'm not sure which scenario will pan out either, so maybe a compromise path is the best solution for now. And that's why the NHC went with the compromise.

If it's scenario 2, what do you think the risk is down here in SFL?

[artist]

At this point that is what I hope happens. There seem to be more to come after this, so one less? It is just fine with me!

[wxman57]

Long day at work. I notice an inconsistency in the initial NHC track and intensity forecast. The track is sort of a compromise due to the uncertainty. And it's pretty much assured to be wrong. They talk of a possible interaction with Earl but at Fiona's day 4-5 points, Earl is a distant memory located north of Newfoundland. So either Earl's outflow kills Fiona by then, something that's quite possible, or Fiona is blocked by high pressure in the wake of Earl and is intensifying.

I'm not sure which scenario will pan out either, so maybe a compromise path is the best solution for now. And that's why the NHC went with the compromise.

If it's scenario 2, what do you think the risk is down here in SFL?

If Fiona escapes Earl's outflow and is turned westward beyond day 4, then the most likely threat area would be the Carolinas rather than FL.

[HURAKAN]

has to be one of the worse looking tropical storm of all time ... wow

[gatorcane]

has to be one of the worse looking tropical storm of all time ... wow

Seriously how did this get named? The best it looked may have been a couple of days ago.

[lonelymike]

has to be one of the worse looking tropical storm of all time ... wow

Chuckle....be ironic if it turns into Hugo Jr bearing down on Miami or Charleston..

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Unless Earl really speeds up or Fiona really slows down in the next 24 hrs there is going to be substantial shear tearing at Fiona. This is going to be a very interesting 24-72 hrs to see what happens between these two storms.

[HURAKAN]

has to be one of the worse looking tropical storm of all time ... wow

Seriously how did this get named? The best it looked may have been a couple of days ago.

Maybe it was margarita day at the NHC!!! LOL

Seriously, how many times have we seen that a system isn't upgraded bc the convection isn't well-organized? But they know more than me!!!

[hurr3]

Does anyone know what JB's thinking about Fiona's future???

[artist]

has to be one of the worse looking tropical storm of all time ... wow

Seriously how did this get named? The best it looked may have been a couple of days ago.

I think they had a research mission in there today, thus why they named it, with what they found.

[Aquawind]

Well Fiona looks pretty pathetic ATM. The intensity forecast is seems low. Hopefully the forecast does not move further west.. Although I am getting the impression we could have a EC issue if the ridge builds of course.