ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[MHurricanes]

Also here in central florida there are already reports of 5 to almost 7 inches of rain in brevard county..

Aric,

Here in Altamonte Springs (just north of Orlando), the sky has turned pitch black and the street lights have turned on. Very ominous looking.

[Aric Dunn]

how far out do you expect the TS Forcs winds will be aric

well with the new model tracks its very likely.. also there should be a increasing pressure gradient along the central florida east coast today and tomorrow. It could bring some fairly strong winds especially along coast.

so when do you think this might decide to move north and hit the state now Aric?

would say no later than thursday...

[hurricanefloyd5]

Also here in central florida there are already reports of 5 to almost 7 inches of rain in brevard county..

Aric,

Here in Altamonte Springs (just north of Orlando), the sky has turned pitch black and the street lights have turned on. Very ominous looking.

your right cause I live there too wow

[petit_bois]

Little to no convection anywhere near the center. 10kt winds around the center... Approching Cuba... Looks like the only thing that will be ramping up is ist's forward speed.

[canes04]

really coming together now and not moving much.
we may have an intensifying storm in the straits tomorrow night. If she decides to get going.

[petit_bois]

Also here in central florida there are already reports of 5 to almost 7 inches of rain in brevard county..

Aric,

Here in Altamonte Springs (just north of Orlando), the sky has turned pitch black and the street lights have turned on. Very ominous looking.

That has more to do with the cold front dropping down... we had the same weather here a few days ago

[dmbthestone]

Getting pretty dark here in Tampa...not sure if its from this storm or not..?

[tolakram]

Near Center:

Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 14°C

South East of the center:

Flight Level Temperature: 25°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 19°C

North East of the center:

Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 19°C

Back near the center:

Flight Level Temperature: 24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 19°C

Southwest of the center:

Flight Level Temperature: 25°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 21°C

As you can see, the center has lower dewpoints and temps. Am I reading this wrong? Looks like there may be a warm front in there somewhere.

[SouthDadeFish]

WInd shear products from CIMSS show shear has really dropped just south of the center in a narrow band to less than 5 knots. Shear tendencies show that if TD 16 can move a little slower than forecast, it might enter a slightly more favorable environment for intensification.

[northjaxpro]

Getting pretty dark here in Tampa...not sure if its from this storm or not..?

The rain in the Tampa Bay area is being triggered by the frontal boundary which is backing north -northwest slowly ahead of TD 16.

[dmbthestone]

Getting pretty dark here in Tampa...not sure if its from this storm or not..?

The rain in the Tampa Bay area is being triggered by the frontal boundary which is backing north -northwest slowly ahead of TD 16.

Thanks for the quick reply. Rather new to all this..
Definitely learning alot!

[SouthDadeFish]

TD 16 looks completely different on visible than IR imagery.

[Aric Dunn]

Getting pretty dark here in Tampa...not sure if its from this storm or not..?

The rain in the Tampa Bay area is being triggered by the frontal boundary which is backing north -northwest slowly ahead of TD 16.

yes but .. with the forecast for quite a bit of rain.. at this point it does matter if its from the TD or the front.. either way a lot of moisture is being advected north across the florida peninsula .

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

MSM has picked it up. Channel 7 likely to be in full storm mode by 5pm.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com

[jhpigott]

TD 16 looks completely different on visible than IR imagery.

Yep. Convection clearly waning on IR. But if you look at the visible, the storm's structure is clearly becoming more organized.

[HURAKAN]

28/1745 UTC 20.8N 83.2W ST2.5 16L

tropical storm intensity and subtropical looking

[tgenius]

Now my question is.. what is considered the "real" storm.. IR or visible? I was always under the impression that visable overruled IR?

[tgenius]

28/1745 UTC 20.8N 83.2W ST2.5 16L

tropical storm intensity and subtropical looking

Probably Nicole @ 5pm Sandy... get ready for the news barrage tonight!

[northjaxpro]

Getting pretty dark here in Tampa...not sure if its from this storm or not..?

The rain in the Tampa Bay area is being triggered by the frontal boundary which is backing north -northwest slowly ahead of TD 16.

yes but .. with the forecast for quite a bit of rain.. at this point it does matter if its from the TD or the front.. either way a lot of moisture is being advected north across the florida peninsula .

Oh I agree with you. At the moment, the frontal boundary is the focal point triggering the rain over Central FL. As TD 16 lifts out of the Caribbean the next 12-24 hours, some of the rain shield from TD 16/Nicole will make it into that area.

[kevin]

What data shows this at tropical storm intensity?