ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

[Stormcenter]

Well I'm going to bed now shaking my head while I
look at the lastest sat. & radar loops of 95L and wondering
what the NHC was looking at when they wrote up the 2am TWO.
I still don't see the wnw movement.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Stormcenter]

Post of day!!!!!!!!!!!

There are no storms along our coast. The weather is beautiful. Do not listen to the propaganda that is being spoken of. Chance of tropical development is 0%!

Forecaster Baghdad Bob

[MGC]

WNW at 10-15 mph??? The vortex on radar has been nearly stationary for the last several hours. Convection is slowly getting better organized also. I guess there is a big rug at the NHC that they can sweep this one under......MGC

[xcool22]

<<<<< lmao so hard

[Brent]

There are no storms along our coast. The weather is beautiful. Do not listen to the propaganda that is being spoken of. Chance of tropical development is 0%!

Forecaster Baghdad Bob

Best post ever.

[Stormcenter]

Quack, quack, quack.........................


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[vbhoutex]

Ok, enough of the NHC bashing. I haven't seen anything about the system itself or what it is doing for quite a few posts. Ok some posted while I was typing and watching tv at the same time.
I am not about to defend the NHC and their handling of this system since I don't know everything that goes on behind closed doors, but we have rules about bashing official agencies on this site that all of you know about and we do enforce our rules.

That being said, it appears to me that 95L is throwing at least one if not two outflow boundaries to the NW and W. That normally does not bode well for a tropical system or for any system trying to develop into one. The other thing I have noticed is that unless my eyes are deceiving me this thing has maybe moved 5 miles West in the last several hours. I will find it interesting to see what shape this is in later this morning and if it has moved any.

[funster]

Looks like it will make landfall along the north texas coast - if the LLC is ahead of the convection to the southwest. Hopefully, it won't create flooding problems. Near 0% does seem low for a system that appears to have an LLC and has been generating steady convection for quite a while. http://www.wfaa.com/weather/radar?radar ... img=18&c=y

[vbhoutex]

It is really hugging the coast from what I see so I'm not sure it will make it to the TX coast. I know that some of the ensemble models do show it doing that, but I'm not sure there is a legit LLC as opposed to a MLC. I haven't seen enough surface obs to legitimize a definite LLC, but I won't say there isn't one either. Part of the problem with this system imo is the tiny size of it which gives it a small signature so it may be difficult to get enough info. JMHO. I will definitely be watching though since it could be heading my way and could cause some flooding problems if it does make it this far. This one is just plain weird and tough.

[bahamaswx]

I guess near 0% means they won't upgrade it, period.

[loon]

Appears to be moving inland or already over land on radar now

[wxman57]

WNW at 10-15 mph??? The vortex on radar has been nearly stationary for the last several hours. Convection is slowly getting better organized also. I guess there is a big rug at the NHC that they can sweep this one under......MGC

Look at the surface with actual observations, not aloft with radar. The low is now southwest of Lafayette moving westward toward Lake Charles.

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/metars/

[KWT]

I guess near 0% means they won't upgrade it, period.

Its not going to be upgraded now but I think there is a decent enough arguement to upgrade it post season to be honest. It'll certainly be considered.

[HURAKAN]

Station MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03

Code: Select all

07   06    2:00 am         S    15.0    20.0   -   -   -   -   29.81   +0.00    84.7   -   -   -    6.5   -
07   06    1:00 am        SSE    27.0    29.9   -   -   -   -   29.73   -0.08    81.0   -   -   -    6.5   -
07   06   12:00 am        SSE    25.1    28.9   -   -   -   -   29.69   -0.13    79.5   -   -   -    5.9   -
07   05   11:00 pm        ENE    28.9    36.9   -   -   -   -   29.81   -0.02    78.6   -   -   -    6.5   -
07   05   10:00 pm        ENE    27.0    33.0   -   -   -   -   29.81   +0.00    78.8   -   -   -    6.5   -
07   05    9:00 pm        ENE    25.1    28.9   -   -   -   -   29.81   -    81.0   -   -   -    6.5   

Looks like any center passed south of this location. Sustained winds up to 29 knots and a pressure of 1005 mb

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BUT DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[KWT]

Yeah that pretty much ends it for now cycloneye, but we have a closed low pressure from the looks of things with the convection lasting long enough just before landfall to IMO to make a good arguement for a post season upgrade I think.

[wxman57]

Station MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03

Code: Select all

07   06    2:00 am         S    15.0    20.0   -   -   -   -   29.81   +0.00    84.7   -   -   -    6.5   -
07   06    1:00 am        SSE    27.0    29.9   -   -   -   -   29.73   -0.08    81.0   -   -   -    6.5   -
07   06   12:00 am        SSE    25.1    28.9   -   -   -   -   29.69   -0.13    79.5   -   -   -    5.9   -
07   05   11:00 pm        ENE    28.9    36.9   -   -   -   -   29.81   -0.02    78.6   -   -   -    6.5   -
07   05   10:00 pm        ENE    27.0    33.0   -   -   -   -   29.81   +0.00    78.8   -   -   -    6.5   -
07   05    9:00 pm        ENE    25.1    28.9   -   -   -   -   29.81   -    81.0   -   -   -    6.5   

Looks like any center passed south of this location. Sustained winds up to 29 knots and a pressure of 1005 mb

No, that's not the case. The northern Gulf has 15-25 kt ESE-SE winds all across it this morning. The low is about 40 miles inland just to the northeast of Lake Charles. Winds around the center are 10 kts or less. It's a very tiny low.

[Diva]

So I'm headed to Lake Charles this morning for work. Do I need to be prepared for heavy downpours and gusty winds? Or nothing more than moderate rain?

[KWT]

Do you think the NHC might be tempted to upgrade it post season Wxman57 or not?