ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[wxman57]

I've heard of the "Cone of Uncertainty", but this is the first time I have seen the "Sphere of Uncertainty"

The cone is a series of error circles centered along each track point. If a storm is stationary or very slow-moving, the "cone" appears as a circle.

[Macrocane]

This system could be one of the most dangerous and at the same time interesting systems of the season.

[Sanibel]

AVN shows IR co-locating with an offshore center:

[canes101]

Is there any archived record of a NW Caribbean system that looped and stayed strong upon exiting out?


Climatology seems to tend towards the strongest storms being direct track storms - but I could be wrong.

Well here is Tropical Storm Historical Tracking Map if you can make anything out of it lol

[northjaxpro]

Well, I certainly hope we don't have a Wilma or Mitch situation developing down there. I pray for our neighbors down in the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize, but especially for the people in Cozumel, which was absolutely devastated by Wilma in 2005. For our fellow Storm2K posters down in that region, I hope you keep us all updated on the conditions as they develop in the coming days and of course stay safe!

[sunnyday]

The mention of the "weakening" on days 4 and 5 and the mention of wind shear at that time make me stick with my fat lady singing. I think it will hit land and fizzle.

This is not a forecast of any kind, just my humble opinion.

[canes101]

Also here is a map of tropical points of origin for October.. So there is nothing out of the ordinary for this storm as far as where it is forming and where it may be heading

[SouthFloridawx]

[gatorcane]

Cuffoff low with associated cold front is digging SE in Central Plains towards the GOM:

[SouthFloridawx]

Big blow up of convection...

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami snippet. Looks like a strong cold front is on the way. How could this not pick up Paula if Paula deepens enough in the NW Carib.....reminds me of the type of cold front that ejected Wilma off to the ENE, though Paula is nowhere near as strong as Wilma was:

ALTHOUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS FORECAST
WILL STILL FEATURE HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA...IT APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN
ABRUPT END FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS A
DEEPENING UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...ENDING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AS MID-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...USHERING
A MUCH COOLER/DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. BASED ON PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS AND DEW
POINT PROGS...LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
MAY REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TO THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT
METRO SITES LIKELY THE COOLEST WE HAVE SINCE SINCE EARLY APRIL.
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST ON SATURDAY...
WITH DEVELOPING NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO GRADUAL AIR
MASS MODIFICATION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Blown Away]

Cuffoff low with associated cold front is digging SE in Central Plains towards the GOM:

The NHC says Paula will still be in the NW Caribbean in 5 days, so I think that means Paula misses this cutoff low.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Vortex]

Anyone know when the next recon is scheduled?

[HurricaneBelle]

Interesting that despite being outside the cone/sphere/obelisk, NHC has the following Florida locations mentioned in their wind probability product:

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

[SouthFloridawx]

Anyone know when the next recon is scheduled?

079
NOUS42 KNHC 111330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT MON 11 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-132

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0318A CYCLONE
C. 12/1430Z
D. 18.0N 86.0W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 13/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0418A CYCLONE
C. 13/0300Z
D. 19.5N 87.0W
E. 13/0530Z TO 13/0930Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[northjaxpro]

Wow,what an interesting forecast discussion from the Miami NWS office. If that comes to fruition, not only would trough pick up Paula , but some rather chilly temps will come right into the peninsula. This scenario would be very reminiscent of what happened in October 2005 in the wake of Wilma, when temps dropped to near 40 up here in Jax and they had a good cool down in South Florida as well.

However, NHC is currently going with the theory that this current shortwave coming through will not be strong enough to pick up Paula in the next 120 hours, neaving Paula to meander around the NW Caribbean for days. Interesting.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow,what an interesting forecast discussion from the Miami NWS office. If that comes to fruition, not only would trough pick up Paula , but some rather chilly temps will come right into the peninsula. This scenario would be very reminiscent of what happened in October 2005 in the wake of Wilma, when temps dropped to near 40 up here in Jax and they had a good cool down in South Florida as well.

well my forecast up here in melbourne has no mention of cooler weather through monday ..

[brunota2003]

Interesting that despite being outside the cone/sphere/obelisk, NHC has the following Florida locations mentioned in their wind probability product:

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

Remember though, that a ts/hurricane is not a point...and the cone is only for the center.

[SouthFloridawx]