ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[wxman57]

Do you think the NHC might be tempted to upgrade it post season Wxman57 or not?

I think that there is possibly enough evidence to classify it as TD post-season. But there does not appear to be any strong evidence that it was a TS. Surface obs were fairly plentiful in the band of squalls yesterday, and they all were in the 25 kt range. And it's still not clear if the system had a closed surface circulation yesterday. It certainly had rotation aloft, but that doesn't mean it was a closed LLC.

But after this season is over, I have a feeling it'll be long-forgotten. Kind of like a could-be depression after the 2005 season...

[cycloneye]

It was a fun invest to watch but it has arrived to an end.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al952010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007061248
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[KWT]

Yep thats the end of 95L...until post season....though if Wxman57 is right there won't be much attention on it even if it does get upgraded.

[Nederlander]

Yep thats the end of 95L...until post season....though if Wxman57 is right there won't be much attention on it even if it does get upgraded.

somebody, somewhere, dropped the ball on this one.. im not necessarily saying it 100% shouldve been upgraded but why go from 0% to 60%, back to 0% in just a few hours? I have NEVER seen that done before.. Maybe there were other factors that we dont know about so I cant speculate on the NHC's motives.. I just think the ball got dropped one way or another..

[HURAKAN]

Station MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03

Code: Select all

07   06    2:00 am         S    15.0    20.0   -   -   -   -   29.81   +0.00    84.7   -   -   -    6.5   -
07   06    1:00 am        SSE    27.0    29.9   -   -   -   -   29.73   -0.08    81.0   -   -   -    6.5   -
07   06   12:00 am        SSE    25.1    28.9   -   -   -   -   29.69   -0.13    79.5   -   -   -    5.9   -
07   05   11:00 pm        ENE    28.9    36.9   -   -   -   -   29.81   -0.02    78.6   -   -   -    6.5   -
07   05   10:00 pm        ENE    27.0    33.0   -   -   -   -   29.81   +0.00    78.8   -   -   -    6.5   -
07   05    9:00 pm        ENE    25.1    28.9   -   -   -   -   29.81   -    81.0   -   -   -    6.5   

Looks like any center passed south of this location. Sustained winds up to 29 knots and a pressure of 1005 mb

No, that's not the case. The northern Gulf has 15-25 kt ESE-SE winds all across it this morning. The low is about 40 miles inland just to the northeast of Lake Charles. Winds around the center are 10 kts or less. It's a very tiny low.

If you look at the times, that was from 9 pm last night to 2 am this morning.

[HURAKAN]

Ignored but not forgotten!!!

[HURAKAN]

Best Track was fixed again. Blue line is the old track, while Blue + Black is the new track.

They also removed TD and 35 knots was lowered to 30 knots.

Link - ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 952010.ren

[ronjon]

Hmmm..look at the storm total rainfall from this "non-tropical" low. Up over 6 inches plus in southern La. I think clearly this was a tropical depression yesterday.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lch&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[Frank P]

Hmmm..look at the storm total rainfall from this "non-tropical" low. Up over 6 inches plus in southern La. I think clearly this was a tropical depression yesterday.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lch&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no

That's exactly what it felt like on the MS coast the past two days.. several nice squally bands of rain yesterday and its just deluged here this morning.. very reminiscent of depression like features.. it had that feel about it..

[cycloneye]

For those who may have missed the best track updates earlier,they had 95L as a TD at 12z this morning and the winds increased to 35kts at 18z this afternoon.

AL, 95, 2010070512, , BEST, 0, 284N, 909W, 30, 1009, TD

AL, 95, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 287N, 910W, 35, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

It may have been an error or not at that time,but this is part of the history of 95L.

[HURAKAN]

Still there

[KWT]

Its certainly popping up some decent convection across LA today, doesn't look like a great start to the day in LA.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say if they determine winds were 35 kt or greater at any time, then it should be classified as an unnamed tropical storm and put in HURDAT as such. (A case could be made for such at least at 1800Z yesterday, perhaps at 0000Z as well).

If it was only a tropical depression, no point in going back to it since TD's don't go into HURDAT.

[CrazyC83]

I'd probably have classified it a TD at 5/1200, which is about when convection became persistent. A case could be made as early as 4/1200 but there was no real deep convection on Sunday night (hence I would classify it as a "low" there).

Here is how I personally would do it (this BT is NOT official):

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

4/1200 - 27.2N/90.0W - 25 kt - 1011mb - Low
4/1800 - 27.4N/90.1W - 25 kt - 1010mb - Low
5/0000 - 27.7N/90.5W - 25 kt - 1012mb - Low
5/0600 - 28.1N/90.8W - 25 kt - 1010mb - Low
5/1200 - 28.4N/90.9W - 30 kt - 1008mb - Tropical Depression
5/1800 - 28.8N/91.1W - 35 kt - 1007mb - Tropical Storm
6/0000 - 29.2N/91.4W - 35 kt - 1005mb - Tropical Storm
6/0600 - 29.5N/92.1W - 30 kt - 1005mb - Tropical Depression
6/1200 - 30.2N/92.4W - 25 kt - 1008mb - Tropical Depression

5/2300 - 29.1N/91.2W - 35 kt - 1005mb - LANDFALL west of Cocodrie, LA and minimum pressure

(still an active TD)

ACE = 0.2450

[jasons2k]

If it was only a tropical depression, no point in going back to it since TD's don't go into HURDAT.

I have read that they do not upgrade systems to TD status post-season. I could be wrong - I just read it on the internet somewhere

I also disagree with those "official" plots. For a period of time last night, it was moving almost due west along the coast before finally moving inland. That line should zig-zag more IMO.

[CrazyC83]

If it was only a tropical depression, no point in going back to it since TD's don't go into HURDAT.

I have read that they do not upgrade systems to TD status post-season. I could be wrong - I just read it on the internet somewhere

I also disagree with those plots. For a period of time last night, it was moving almost due west along the coast before finally moving inland. That line should zig-zag more IMO.

The plots I have are based on the existing BT with minor adjustments to allow for the landfall point. That is correct, TD's are not upgraded post season since they are not listed in the database so there is no real need to.

The 1005mb pressure is based on the Marsh Island observation. The intensity is based on a combination of Doppler radar estimates and land surface data adjusted for the fact that observations were sparse.

[Contender33T]

Is it just my amateur eyes or does 95L look like it's getting better organized and heading E-NE?

[jasons2k]

The plots I have are based on the existing BT with minor adjustments to allow for the landfall point. That is correct, TD's are not upgraded post season since they are not listed in the database so there is no real need to.

I didn't mean yours, sorry for the confusion.

[thetruesms]

Wow, don't come by the boards for a couple days, and look what happens To have been a fly on the wall at NHC during those discussions I imagine would have been pretty interesting. Although then I would be a fly, and probably not care very much about meteorology

[tailgater]

Rainfall has been the biggest problem around here. Check out what south central LA has got, the estimates around here 2.5inches are low I've recieved 3.5 since yesterday!
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes