ATL: FIONA - Models

[gatorcane]

The ecmwf is not represented in your graphic above though I think it should shift right in the coming days, I think 97l seems fishy still though things can change.

[Blown Away]

The ecmwf is not represented in your graphic above though I think it should shift right in the coming days, I think 97l seems fishy still though things can change.

IMO the 97L will be a close call for the NE Caribbean and there has been multiple EURO runs that show landfall and tonight it appears the GFS has backed off the sharp recurve. Danielle and Earl models have been consistent not showing any CONUS landfalls, so a recurve always seemed likely, but w/ 97L there is room for concern.

[ROCK]

none of those models above take into account the CMC or EURO....selective models on that graphic

97L is not even a TD .... more westward path in the low level flow for now......seen here...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Wx_Warrior]

FWIW....0z GFS...42H

[WeatherEmperor]

What time does the 00Z Euro start rolling btw?

[boca]

What time does the 00Z Euro start rolling btw?

About 3am

[Wx_Warrior]

1:30am-ish (CST)

GFS 78h...

[gatorcane]

Yeah gfs loses it. The euro is clearly the outlier here. I really don't think 97l is a threat to the lower 48 as some think. Sorry I have to go with the gfs here. Earl will become so large 97l won't have much of a chance. Also Earl does not look to be a threat to the lower 48.

[blazess556]

Yeah gfs loses it. The euro is clearly the outlier here. I really don't think 97l is a threat to the lower 48 as some think. Sorry I have to go with the gfs here. Earl will become so large 97l won't have much of a chance.

you really think the euro and cmc are going to be wrong compared to the gfs. check out the verification scores. the euro is superior. the gfs is out to lunch.

[WeatherEmperor]

Yeah gfs loses it. The euro is clearly the outlier here. I really don't think 97l is a threat to the lower 48 as some think. Sorry I have to go with the gfs here. Earl will become so large 97l won't have much of a chance. Also Earl does not look to be a threat to the lower 48.

I will be watching the 00Z Euro later tonight very carefully. I want to see if it still shows the West movement or if it joins the GFS and it's gang. Something has to give because we know that one of them will end up being right and the other wrong.....

[gatorcane]

Yeah gfs loses it. The euro is clearly the outlier here. I really don't think 97l is a threat to the lower 48 as some think. Sorry I have to go with the gfs here. Earl will become so large 97l won't have much of a chance.

you really think the euro and cmc are going to be wrong compared to the gfs. check out the verification scores. the euro is superior. the gfs is out to lunch.

Yes I think the gfs will verify. I just don't see a united states threat from this. Also climo says fish.

97l continues to remain disorganized. The outflow from Earl should really hamper any development of 97l.

Will continue to look to the gom or caribbean for any united states threats as I have been suggesting for the past few weeks.

[Wx_Warrior]

Could very well be. I agree Earl will get nasty. GFS may finally get one right. This time, I hope it does. Don't want anyone to have to deal with a GOM bear.

[ROCK]

Climo? we are still in August....climo has nothing to do with it...

[boca]

97L I think will develop and as far as Earl goes tell People from the Carolina's northward that Earl might not affect them.Look at the 00zGFS run.

[Steve]

Gatorcane: Yeah gfs loses it. The euro is clearly the outlier here. I really don't think 97l is a threat to the lower 48 as some think. Sorry I have to go with the gfs here. Earl will become so large 97l won't have much of a chance. Also Earl does not look to be a threat to the lower 48.

So let me make sure I have this straight - you're going with the GFS for 97L but you're not going for it when it comes to Earl which pretty much meets the Outer Banks on Friday, September 3rd (102 hours). Is it that you're confident in the GFS long term but you think it's out to lunch with Earl?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_102l.gif

[ROCK]

>>Yeah gfs loses it. The euro is clearly the outlier here. I really don't think 97l is a threat to the lower 48 as some think. Sorry I have to go with the gfs here. Earl will become so large 97l won't have much of a chance. Also Earl does not look to be a threat to the lower 48.

So let me make sure I have this straight - you're going with the GFS for 97L but you're not going for it when it comes to Earl which pretty much meets the Outer Banks on Friday, September 3rd (102 hours). Is it that you're confident in the GFS long term but you think it's out to lunch with Earl?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_102l.gif

nice....

[boca]

Gatorcane: Yeah gfs loses it. The euro is clearly the outlier here. I really don't think 97l is a threat to the lower 48 as some think. Sorry I have to go with the gfs here. Earl will become so large 97l won't have much of a chance. Also Earl does not look to be a threat to the lower 48.

So let me make sure I have this straight - you're going with the GFS for 97L but you're not going for it when it comes to Earl which pretty much meets the Outer Banks on Friday, September 3rd (102 hours). Is it that you're confident in the GFS long term but you think it's out to lunch with Earl?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_102l.gif

Agree with you on all points.

[WxGuy1]

Climo? we are still in August....climo has nothing to do with it...

The behavior of past storms do provide some insight into the likelihood of future storms on comparable dates and in comparable areas. This is why we use climatology. Yes, individual storms may be highly unclimatological, but there is some value in observing the past and noting the trends of past storms. Being in August has nothing to do with the climo he's talking about, if I'm reading his post correctly. I bet he's talking about the climatological probability of a storm that's in 97L's current location at this point in the year actually hitting the U.S. Again, climo is not necessarily a good predictor for individual events/storms, but, assuming the large-scale pattern is not highly unclimatological, there is value in using climo probabilities.

check out the verification scores. the euro is superior. the gfs is out to lunch

I haven't followed recent model verification this year, but are the verification stats for the ECMWF really THAT different from those of the GFS? We have a pretty small sample size thus far this year (we're only on storm E, after all). Do you have a link to this year's verification stats?

[blazess556]

Climo? we are still in August....climo has nothing to do with it...

The behavior of past storms do provide some insight into the likelihood of future storms on comparable dates and in comparable areas. This is why we use climatology. Yes, individual storms may be highly unclimatological, but there is some value in observing the past and noting the trends of past storms. Being in August has nothing to do with the climo he's talking about, if I'm reading his post correctly. I bet he's talking about the climatological probability of a storm that's in 97L's current location at this point in the year actually hitting the U.S. Again, climo is not necessarily a good predictor for individual events/storms, but, assuming the large-scale pattern is not highly unclimatological, there is value in using climo probabilities.

check out the verification scores. the euro is superior. the gfs is out to lunch

I haven't followed recent model verification this year, but are the verification stats for the ECMWF really THAT different from those of the GFS? We have a pretty small sample size thus far this year (we're only on storm E, after all). Do you have a link to this year's verification stats?

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

[Brent]

Gatorcane: Yeah gfs loses it. The euro is clearly the outlier here. I really don't think 97l is a threat to the lower 48 as some think. Sorry I have to go with the gfs here. Earl will become so large 97l won't have much of a chance. Also Earl does not look to be a threat to the lower 48.

So let me make sure I have this straight - you're going with the GFS for 97L but you're not going for it when it comes to Earl which pretty much meets the Outer Banks on Friday, September 3rd (102 hours). Is it that you're confident in the GFS long term but you think it's out to lunch with Earl?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_102l.gif