ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[Ivanhater]

At present motion. I would estimate on the eastern Pensacola Bay area, Navarre area.

[Dean4Storms]

Starting to look ragged on radar with less deeper convection near the center.

[crazycajuncane]

Starting to look ragged on radar with less deeper convection near the center.

I just noticed the same thing on radar. It looks like if you are the western side you wouldn't even know there was a storm.

[jinftl]

True...not so unsual for weaker systems (td/weak to mod ts) to have the worst weather displaced from the center (often to the right)......being under the center isn't as big of a deal as in a stronger system usually.

Starting to look ragged on radar with less deeper convection near the center.

I just noticed the same thing on radar. It looks like if you are the western side you wouldn't even know there was a storm.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
0300 UTC MON AUG 17 2009

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF THE
AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD
TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 86.1W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 15SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 86.1W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 85.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.3N 87.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 15NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.0N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.0N 88.9W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 86.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...CLAUDETTE TO MAKE LANDFALL VERY SOON...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF THE
AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD
TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 40 KM...WEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 70 MILES
...110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COASTLINE OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE IN A FEW HOURS AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA LATER ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

THE STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...30.2N 86.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009

CLAUDETTE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF
40-45 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT. MODERATE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN IMPINGING ON THE STORM...AND
APPARENTLY PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND IT IS IN THESE
CONVECTIVE REGIONS WHERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. WITH LANDFALL NOW IMMINENT...THE WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CLAUDETTE TO STRENGTHEN IS QUICKLY CLOSING.

THE CENTER WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE WEST A FEW HOURS AGO BUT NOW IS
MORE OR LESS BACK ON TRACK...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 315/10. THE TRACK FORECAST AND
REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INLAND FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS...WATCHES...AND
WARNINGS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 30.2N 86.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 31.3N 87.2W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 18/0000Z 33.0N 88.3W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/1200Z 35.0N 88.9W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[The Eye Wall]

Keep in mind also that Claudette, what ever there is of her, is very small. Just because a Tropical Storm Warning is hoisted does not mean everybody in the warned area will see those conditions. They have to include wide swaths to cover for any deviances in the official track. A very, very small area confined near the center and along the coast will see those winds...if at all. I think the advisories for central Alabama is silly.

[swampdude]

Looks like Cape San Blas/Port St. Joe getting the worst of this along with Tyndall AFB. Definately some resemblence to Humberto if it had about 6 more hours over water.

[Evil Jeremy]

Jim Cantore (I know that's wrong lol): "This thing is starting to look pathetic".

Anyways, landfall should be coming any time now.

[jinftl]

Also when they say "tropical storm force winds extend up to 70 miles from the center", that is not the same as implying a circle of a radius = 70 miles from the center of ts force winds. Add in the reduction from friction over land and you end up with Panama City reporting winds sustained at 16 mph gusting to 32 mph as of 9:55 pm cdt (just now).....and they are 25 miles east of the center in the thick of the convection.

Keep in mind also that Claudette, what ever there is of her, is very small. Just because a Tropical Storm Warning is hoisted does not mean everybody in the warned area will see those conditions. They have to include wide swaths to cover for any deviances in the official track. A very, very small area confined near the center and along the coast will see those winds...if at all. I think the advisories for central Alabama is silly.

[psyclone]

claudette is looking sloppy tonight. also intersting to note the rain is really confined to the coast. it is not making progress inland. perhaps a dry air issue? very curious pattern on radar with rain from perry all the way west to the PCB area but only within 15 to 20 miles or so of the coast. in addition, the main convective band east of the center doesn't seem to make any headway toward shore (which is a very good thing for panama city).

[HurricaneQueen]

I can not believe that this storm isn't inland yet. It was being called for an early afternoon landfall and here we are 6-7 hours later watching her do her thing. I hope there aren't any more surprises for those of you in the path.

Vacane: Please keep us updated on Jesse as you get the opportunity (and tell him to be careful LOL.)

Lynn

will do and it is aric thats out there... i am jesse.. lol..

it was not forecast from what i remember to be inland this afternoon... except by a few here... the offical forecast had it inland near 8pm... but it went further west than forecast so it is taking longer..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com


Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Jesse:

Sorry for the mix up I know you are Jesse and Aric is Aric and he is on land and you were talking to him on the phone. Guess I've spent too much time in front of this computer all weekend. Bedtime now. LOL

Lynn

[MGC]

Looks like Claudette is finally making her move.....Destin. Looks like the northern area of the center of circulation is nearly on the beach.....MGC

[Dean4Storms]

Getting gusts to 35mph here now.

[vbhoutex]

Looks like Between Hurlburt Field and Wynnehaven Beach to me.

[Aric Dunn]

I am at miramar beah right now heading towards destin and FWB to see if i can get some gust higher than earlier..

[Evil Jeremy]

Starting to make landfall: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like it came in right over Destin's East Pass!

[JonathanBelles]

Landfall has occurred.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, not too much here just to the east of Destin, had some 35-40mph gusts as it made landfall in Destin and little rain thus far.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
100 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009

...CLAUDETTE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR JUST
INLAND NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA.

CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND...AND
CLAUDETTE WILL PROBABLY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN OBSERVING SITE IN DESTIN FLORIDA RECENTLY
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

THE STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA.

...SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...30.5N 86.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN