ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Here is the Belize radar that for sure will have thousands of hits this weekend to see it as it seems that Richard will track thru the area this radar covers. I bookmarked it.

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Latest%20Rad ... Image.html

[GCANE]

I like that little squall line firing up at 16N 84W.

Could be telegraphing a big message.

[Vortex]

per 1640Z vis...very good inflow coming in along the S and E side...Several curved bands are well defind as well...

[GCANE]

Air is definetly destabilizing to the west now.

Had a tower fire direclty west and another after that SW of the LLC.

First one looks like it shot off an outflow boundary.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... .5&lon=-81

[HURAKAN]

nice loop

[Extratropical94]

Still at 40 mph

000
WTNT34 KNHC 221746
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

...RICHARD EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TODAY....


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 81.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RICHARD
SHOULD APPROACH NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
RICHARD COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SATURDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Weatherfreak000]

Pattern getting set now as the NHC is now committing to a track. NGOM sheared and weak seems to be the case. I am wondering however if Richard can become a well stacked major hurricane, would it not emerge stronger than a TS into the GOM? I mean...we have seen storms trek across that area a few times this season and make the trip very well.


Track seeming kinda Opal-like now.

[Ntxw]

Pattern getting set now as the NHC is now committing to a track. NGOM sheared and weak seems to be the case. I am wondering however if Richard can become a well stacked major hurricane, would it not emerge stronger than a TS into the GOM? I mean...we have seen storms trek across that area a few times this season and make the trip very well.


Track seeming kinda Opal-like now.

Unless Richard can track across the Yucatan quickly limiting land impacts before the gulf become hostile by mid next week with a cold front pushing in down from Texas, a big gulf storm appears unlikely atm.

[Blown Away]

I'm sure it's just the convection waxing/waning, but it looks like the convection envelope is moving NW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[ronjon]

The whole motion for Richard looks to be W-NW or NW over the last several hours. I don't see any west component like NHC suggests. I don't know if the LLC is reorganizing further NW since the circulation is broad but if it keeps this trend, it may be sliding further northward than anticipated this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[KWT]

Looks like Richard is still holding steady though over the past few hours it does look abit stronger then the other day in terms of the presentation.

Track looks to be resolved now as well, WNW towards Belize/S.Yucatan then out into the BoC...conditions there may not be bad at first depending on where it emerges....but as wxman57 said conditions aren't great other then that, so probably a sheared depression/storm racing NE through the central/E.Gulf.

[wxman57]

Convection has decreased enough so that you can see the center now. It does appear to be moving very slowly nearly due west.

[cycloneye]

The latest visible image.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 19, 2010102218, , BEST, 0, 161N, 816W, 35, 1006, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Keep in mind that the 2 PM position was 15.8N-81.3W.

[Steve H.]

Maybe the recon flights are Decon flights Looks like someone is spraying tropical systems with Raid this year. Convection is breaking up again. But I guess it will be back later.

[Macrocane]

Maybe the recon flights are Decon flights Looks like someone is spraying tropical systems with Raid this year. Convection is breaking up again. But I guess it will be back later.

You say it like all of the systems have been like Richard this year, but remember we've had 9 hurricanes5 of them majors

[Ptarmigan]

Maybe the recon flights are Decon flights Looks like someone is spraying tropical systems with Raid this year. Convection is breaking up again. But I guess it will be back later.

Now, I wish that same flight could spray RAID on the cockroach ridge that has deprived us of rain.

Richard is rather large, so it is taking longer to gets its act together. I think it will be a hurricane when everything gets right. As Macrocane says, we had 5 major hurricanes and that is well above average and in a short time also.

[Sanibel]

I think Richard is bigger than it looks but is trading-off dry air for intensity.


Slight W movement.

[Steve H.]

Well, i am kidding to a large degree folks, but he has just been spitting out outflow boundaries one after another. Shear is light and conditions are favorable, its just not coming together yet. Yes in the central and eastern Atlantic, it has been one heck of a season. We just hit the western Atlantic in a year when the cold fronts came early. Still, we have another month to go.

[Macrocane]

You're right Steve, conditions look favorable but for some strange reason Richard is not taking advantage of them.