ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[lonelymike]

The EURO has been complete garbage thus far. No reason to think that's going to change.




(Just my opinion of course)[/quote]
Weren't you the same guy advocating Bob Breck and the wondermodel Viper?
We all know what a stellar job that pair did in August of 2005.

Just my opinion of course.

[ROCK]

Paul,

The TVCN also incorporates the EURO.

thats not my point though..

[redfish1]

i think the models will shift back west as the ridge builds in and pushes Bonnie west...what do you think Rock

[Stratosphere747]

Paul,

The TVCN also incorporates the EURO.

thats not my point though..

Ah, my bad. No idea what your point was. Seemed to be some confusion to which models the TVCN uses and how it's derived and used. It's not fully based on the GFS.

Anyways, for those that are looking for the upcoming track a bit before the NHC releases it's full package keep a eye on the TVCN when it's updated. Not always inline but generally close.

[rockyman]

TVCN - Consensus of GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and ECMWF models (replaces old CONU model)

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... plots.html

[HouTXmetro]

i think the models will shift back west as the ridge builds in and pushes Bonnie west...what do you think Rock

I highly doubt it....the center has been relocating North all day. I just can't see the models shifting west at this point.

[sphelps8681]

And I don't see it moving much more North with a ridge near by.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

SHIP intensity peaks at 56kts before GOM landfall.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC FRI JUL 23 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE (AL032010) 20100723 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100723  0000   100723  1200   100724  0000   100724  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    23.1N  75.9W   24.1N  78.5W   25.3N  80.6W   26.5N  83.1W
BAMD    23.1N  75.9W   24.4N  78.6W   25.9N  81.7W   27.4N  84.8W
BAMM    23.1N  75.9W   24.2N  78.3W   25.5N  80.7W   26.7N  83.2W
LBAR    23.1N  75.9W   24.4N  78.5W   25.9N  81.5W   27.4N  84.7W
SHIP        35KTS          40KTS          45KTS          51KTS
DSHP        35KTS          40KTS          45KTS          51KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100725  0000   100726  0000   100727  0000   100728  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    27.8N  85.2W   29.9N  89.1W   32.3N  92.0W   35.3N  93.0W
BAMD    29.1N  87.3W   32.8N  90.6W   36.8N  89.8W   38.2N  81.9W
BAMM    28.0N  85.5W   30.5N  89.5W   33.5N  91.9W   36.8N  91.6W
LBAR    29.2N  87.3W   32.9N  89.7W   35.2N  88.3W   35.5N  83.0W
SHIP        56KTS          63KTS          64KTS          60KTS
DSHP        56KTS          50KTS          29KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  23.1N LONCUR =  75.9W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  21.6N LONM12 =  74.4W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  21.2N LONM24 =  72.7W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   40NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Ivanhater]

Text looks a bit eastward shift..not positive without the graphic...

Edit: that was fast Luis

[poof121]

BAMs shifted east...

[Frank P]

Text looks a bit eastward shift..not positive without the graphic...

SHIPs showing increase in intensity.. getting close to minimum hurricane if it comes to fruition..

[Blown Away]

I bet Bonnie reaches 24.4 latitude in the next few hours, not in 12 hours.

[SFLcane]

00z models have come north...TVCN now north of curent TPC track.

[Frank P]

WOW, that's pretty amazing model consensus for being this far out.. need to hope this thing stays really weak or its going to get quite oily somewhere along the coast..

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the TVCN is just SSW of Nola, around Houma I would say.

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmm interesting eastward trend with models. I'm curious to see if it
will continue.

[TheBurn]

[wxman22]

I dont think this is a threat to Texas,I think either the Louisiana or Mississippi Coast will be the target zone.

[nashrobertsx]

WOW, that's pretty amazing model consensus for being this far out.. need to hope this thing stays really weak or its going to get quite oily somewhere along the coast..

ITS NOT THAT FAR OUT.. ITS LESS THAN 68 HOURS TO LANDFALL... ABOUT 72 HOURS OUT THEY ALL START CONVERGING PRETTY WELL. I SAY LANDFALL IS RIGHT ON TARGET. THE TRICKY THING AS ALWAYS IS THE INTENSITY.

[Frank P]

WOW, that's pretty amazing model consensus for being this far out.. need to hope this thing stays really weak or its going to get quite oily somewhere along the coast..

ITS NOT THAT FAR OUT.. ITS LESS THAN 68 HOURS TO LANDFALL... ABOUT 72 HOURS OUT THEY ALL START CONVERGING PRETTY WELL. I SAY LANDFALL IS RIGHT ON TARGET. THE TRICKY THING AS ALWAYS IS THE INTENSITY.

Maybe, but I can remember just with Alex how spread out the models were when he was in the BOC, which is a lot closer to TX and Mexico than Bonnie is to the NGOM attm... I never say landfall is right on target until about 24 hours out... my opinion only.. intensity is another matter