ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[artist]

[sfwx]

for comparison sake, the pressure in tampa is currently 1004mb.

1002mb at my house...

[Ground_Zero_92]

for comparison sake, the pressure in tampa is currently 1004mb.

1002mb at my house...

1002mb here as well

[Aric Dunn]

The circulation is getting little tighter as a little eddy is slowly strengthening and diving SSW. that feature should tighten and rotate around eventually swing ESE as it likely takes over..

[psyclone]

and that explains the lack of wind confirmed by recon. there is no pressure gradient but just a large area of low ambient pressures. this thing would probably need to deepen considerably to produce any wind of consequence.

[alienstorm]

To be honest I am concern with what i being forecast to follow by the models....

[sfwx]

Systems like this are very hard to predict as far as exact rainfall goes. We learned that here from Tropical storm Faye which flooded us and the opposite happened with Ernesto which was a dud!

Eric

[SootyTern]

Convection over the center seems to be waning ATM.
Someone knowledgeable on another board suggested that the large convective area to the SE (currently flaring up again) might become the next low once 16/Nicole moves out.

[blp]

HPC has updated the rainfall amounts for S. Fla to 6.64" from 5.65" earlier today. They now have 7.6" for the Carolinas. That is a good amount of rain.

[dmbthestone]

for comparison sake, the pressure in tampa is currently 1004mb.

Surprised we havent gotten any rain yet...at least where I am. Been really dark and cloudy the past few hours.

[PanAmMIA]

Also here in central florida there are already reports of 5 to almost 7 inches of rain in brevard county..

I live in South Brevard County and don't think we have had that much rain yet..

I live in Central Brevard County, and we've had at least that already. I am not in a flood zone, but the yards here are already forming huge puddles. Rare thing to see here.

I'm in rural St. Cloud (Osceola County). My Davis Vantage Pro 2 currently has 2.67 inches since it started a little after 3PM. We had some small 1in hail an hour or two ago with some rotation to my south, near Kenansville. The cows are going to be pissed.

Mike

[fci]

FYI, schools in Palm Beach County will be open tomorrow.

[Okibeach]

This could be quite bad for the Wilmington NC area. Received over 10 inches of rain yesterday and its been raining off and on since. Yesterday was the second largest 24hr rainfall total, second only to Floyd which was just over 13 inches. Current talk of additional 7-11 inches with this system.

[hurricanedude]

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of southeast North Carolina and northeast South
Carolina... including the following counties...

in southeast North Carolina...

Bladen... Brunswick... Columbus... New Hanover... Pender and
Robeson.

In northeast South Carolina...

Darlington... Dillon... Florence... Georgetown... Horry... Marion...
Marlboro and Williamsburg.

* From Wednesday morning through Friday morning

* tropical moisture streaming north from the Caribbean will ride
up and over a front stalled along the coast through Friday.
Heavy rainfall is expected to develop late tonight and will
continue through Friday morning. Saturated ground due to recent
heavy rains will create excessive runoff... and a significant
flooding threat exists Wednesday and Thursday. An additional
seven to eleven inches of rain could lead to life threatening
flash flooding... with some Road closures and property damage
expected.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Tstormwatcher]

This could be quite bad for the Wilmington NC area. Received over 10 inches of rain yesterday and its been raining off and on since. Yesterday was the second largest 24hr rainfall total, second only to Floyd which was just over 13 inches. Current talk of additional 7-11 inches with this system.

I live just north of you and we have had a bit over 4 inches since yesterday including an inch in the past 45 minutes. We have gone from drought conditions to very wet in 2 days with what looks like much, much more to come.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is even farther west and south than the 5pm advisory.....

[wxman57]

Still just a broad low with little in the way of convection within a few hundred miles of the center. If anything, convection has decreased today. Wind shear will only increase as it is lifted northward up the trof over the next 24 hours. TS sustained winds over south FL (beaches) aren't very likely unless there is a major change in its structure in the next 24 hours. That's quite possible, of course. But the rain looks to be the main "threat" to Florida. Fortunately, being a tropical climate, 4-6" of rain, due mainly to the frontal boundary in the are, should not cause major issues.

This system will probably be more of a problem once it reaches the Carolinas if it transitions to an extratropical storm without dissipating. By problem, I mean a large gale center producing tides above normal, rough seas and gusty wind along the coast.

[Bocadude85]

For whatever reason the power keeps surging here in Boca Raton... there is no wind outside at all...

[kevin]

The center is even farther west and south than the 5pm advisory.....

What supports this?