ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[x-y-no]

not so sure its at 15.8n based on latest vis..looks to be closer to 14.9

Doesn't look that far south to me, but maybe more like 15.4 ...

[TheBurn]

[blp]

Maybe part of the reason is that should the general public be allowed to look at model runs that go out beyond 5 days? As you can see they hardly ever verify and cause undue speculation on various catastrophic scenarios that is not warranted.

That is a surprising comment from a person interested in weather. The average Joe does not look at model runs. I challenge you to find one person who is not a weather enthusiast and ask them to even name one of the models and see what they say. To do what you suggest would only hurt weather enthusiasts.

As for Fiona, her strength will be the key. Its too early to declare this a fish.

[Gustywind]

TS Fiona approaching the EC on the screen...

[Gustywind]

Latest SSD
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
31/1145 UTC 15.9N 54.7W T1.5/1.5 FIONA
31/0615 UTC 15.7N 51.5W T1.5/1.5 FIONA

Given SSD not gained much latitude.

[ROCK]

she caught up in the low level flow and booking it west at 24mph.....either she goes underneath Earl today or she is going to get some shear from the outflow...Earl needs to get out of the way...

[Frank2]

Maybe part of the reason is that should the general public be allowed to look at model runs that go out beyond 5 days? As you can see they hardly ever verify and cause undue speculation on various catastrophic scenarios that is not warranted.

That is a surprising comment from a person interested in weather. The average Joe does not look at model runs. I challenge you to find one person who is not a weather enthusiast and ask them to even name one of the models and see what they say. To do what you suggest would only hurt weather enthusiasts.

As for Fiona, her strength will be the key. Its too early to declare this a fish.

As some here know, I posted a similar comment about one week ago, per the dire thoughts at that time about a future Fiona becoming a terrible risk for the US, based on what the long-term models were showing at that time, so, as a person who worked in the weather business for a number of years, I'd have to agree, and in fact this topic was a the subject of a story last week on the cable news channels, concerning the fact that there seems to be "too much information" floating around out there today that only makes a person's life unnecessarily complicated...

Many of us have often cautioned people about using these very-long range 384-hour model runs because so much can and does change - while it's hard not to notice them, it's also best to ignore them, because what they show is usually (I'd say about 80% of the time) NOT what will happen, but are there and used by the forecaster to indicate possible long-range trends (especially when it concerns temperature and precipitation)...

Many were very upset at the model runs of one week to 10 days ago that showed Fiona presenting a terrible threat to the US, and of course that's a story still without an ending, but at this point, due to the unusual closeness of both Earl and Fiona, and due to a strong trough, it seems Fiona will recurve further east than Earl and similar to Danielle - and shows that the anxiety caused by many believing 10-Day model runs to be nothing more than wasted mental and physical energy...

As far as the question of who actually seeks out the model runs - not that many, but those who know to look for them are the basis of the comments posted that often upset the average person (though I'm sure they don't post them with the intention of upsetting anyone intentionally), so as the saying goes no man is an island, even when it comes to the Internet...

Life's difficult enough every day without making it any harder, so best to stick with the short-fuse model runs (96-hour, etc.) when something is on the map because the simple truth is that they are much more accurate...

Frank

[Gustywind]

[ROCK]

Maybe part of the reason is that should the general public be allowed to look at model runs that go out beyond 5 days? As you can see they hardly ever verify and cause undue speculation on various catastrophic scenarios that is not warranted.

That is a surprising comment from a person interested in weather. The average Joe does not look at model runs. I challenge you to find one person who is not a weather enthusiast and ask them to even name one of the models and see what they say. To do what you suggest would only hurt weather enthusiasts.

As for Fiona, her strength will be the key. Its too early to declare this a fish.

As some here know, I posted a similar comment about one week ago, per the dire thoughts at that time about a future Fiona becoming a terrible risk for the US, based on what the long-term models were showing at that time, so, as a person who worked in the weather business for a number of years, I'd have to agree, and was a the subject of a story last week on the cable news channels about the fact that there seems to be "too much information" floating around out there today that only makes a person's life unnecessarily complicated...

Many of us have often cautioned people about using these very-long range 384-hour model runs because so much can and does change - while it's hard not to notice them, it's also best to ignore them, because what they show is usually (I'd say about 80% of the time) NOT what will happen, but are there and used by the forecaster to indicate possible long-range trends (especially when it concerns temperature and precipitation)...

Many were very upset at the model runs of one week to 10 days ago that showed Fiona presenting a terrible threat to the US, and of course that's a story still without an ending, but at this point, due to the unusual closeness of both Earl and Fiona, and due to a strong trough, it seems Fiona will recurve further east than Earl and similar to Danielle - and shows that the anxiety caused by many believing 10-Day model runs to be nothing more than wasted mental and physical energy...

Life's difficult enough every day without making it any harder, so best to stick with the short-fuse model runs when something is on the map...

Frank

so you want to restricted access to the internet? I thought we lived in a free society....I think in China you have limited access but their a communist nation....

[Frank2]

Not to get off-topic, because we are talking about Fiona and not politics, we're not talking about restricting Internet use but being sensible in it's use - with freedom comes responsibility - sadly our society has forgotten that important rule and instead believes with freedom comes the right to do whatever we please...

Back to Fiona - glad that the translation of Fiona means "fair"...

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 311148
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
800 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...FIONA MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 54.4W
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[ColinDelia]

SHIPS takes this to 60 knots on day 5 now. Shear around 20 knots for a good few days but SHIPS considers the ocean temps to be more important.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt

[HURAKAN]

Unless Fiona slows down a great deal, it will be soon interacting with Earl who's not in a hurry to move!

If they interact, Fiona has less than 0 chances of winning this fight!

[KWT]

Fiona probably is in a decent position for a brief time to strengthen with upper divergence from the outflow of Earl probably aiding convection but pretty soon unless Earl lifts out and speeds up this one is in trouble.

Don't be surprised though a good 4-5 days the line when Earl is shooting NE this one gets say 48-72hrs of much better conditions, probably will have to reform again by that point but I suspect we could see this one have two lives...maybe like Colin.

[Boriken]

It doesn't smell like Thrichomonas just yet.

[wxman57]

SHIPS is following the NHC track and assuming that there will be no Earl interference. But I'm not so sure that Fiona will survive the next 48 hrs. I'm beginning to think the 00Z Euro and Canadian models may have the solution. Weak Fiona tracking east of Earl's track and/or being absorbed by Earl in 2 days.

Of course, if Fiona does survive and if it does follow the current forecast track, then there won't be much shear to prevent intensification.

[Cyclone1]

No change at 11. I'm beginning to suspect Fiona isn't real, and exists only in the collective imagination of Storm2k.

[KWT]

I agree Wxman57, if it does survive then probably will have a reasonable shot at redeveloping/strengthening again once Earl does eventually kick out of the way but we will see...

A long ole way to go yet with this one even if it does remain weak, gotta see if it even makes the turn yet!

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 311437
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...FIONA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 55.3W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[CrazyC83]

I think Fiona is jealous of Earl (and Danielle earlier) being too strong and is trying to race to the same position, but doesn't realize that such creates a lot of shear for being too close...