ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

This is what happens when you can't develop a MLC over the broad low pressure system. It'll probably be a good thing if the whole lot can die and then start again over the W.Caribbean with the help of land friction.

It worked for pre-Dolly, and it may well work here.

Either way I can't see anything popping before Friday now, if at all...

[Weatherfreak000]

I can definitely see on Visible a circulation trying to form around 79W, 17N....convection now firing in that area as well.

[HURAKAN]

The engine appears to be starting

Loop - http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[lrak]

Finally it looks like its started

pressure is falling http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[wxman57]

Surface obs indicate a wave axis just west of Jamaica. Any rotation is not at the surface. I also see mid-level rotation south of the DR and south of Jamaica. The system still needs a few days to organize, but I don't like the looks of it. I'm thinking at least a 50% shot of development by 48 hrs and beyond.

[Ivanhater]

I don't think it has started yet, probably die out again. I have yet to see a real "burst" that is needed to take control of the spread out vorticity and become a dominate low pressure area, at least not yet.

[lrak]

Check out the 42057 buoy http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[wxman57]

Check out the 42057 buoy http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

NE to ENE wind 5-6 kts? It's west of the wave axis. What are you implying about the observation?

[tolakram]

Either this is just a vortex or an LLC is forming, in my opinion. here's a better link to the loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=18

Speed it up to better see the formation of ... something.

[lrak]

Just that the pressure has fallen wxman57.

[KWT]

Surface obs indicate a wave axis just west of Jamaica. Any rotation is not at the surface. I also see mid-level rotation south of the DR and south of Jamaica. The system still needs a few days to organize, but I don't like the looks of it. I'm thinking at least a 50% shot of development by 48 hrs and beyond.

Yeah, I think the chances are decent for this one down the road, perhaps just before the YUcatan as frictional forces start to increase. For now though I think its obviously got a long way to go though still, but at least there is still a broad circulation to work from.

This is reminding me alot of the struggles pre-Dolly had, as well as the general track as well...

[tolakram]

Pressure is falling.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

But I don't think I would say wind shear is ideal for formation.

[tolakram]

Either this is just a vortex or an LLC is forming, in my opinion. here's a better link to the loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=18

Speed it up to better see the formation of ... something.

Quoting myself here ... also note the satellite capture is in relatively high speed mode, every 10 minutes. Makes for a nice smooth loop. To me the circulation is quite clear.

[Ivanhater]

That would make sense Mark, that is where the models want to start developing this. Maybe when it slows and sets up in the western caribbean it will develop. Most of the convective activity has been east of the lowest pressure and maybe it will finally catch up with the LLC Friday and cook up.

[Weatherfreak000]

I have to agree, definitely looks like an LLC could be forming there.

[KWT]

Yeah there is at least an attempt at something at lower levels trying to form there, though there has been broad circulation there for a while, it really needs to get a big convective burst over that rather than to the east.

Also shear does look a little higher than I thought it'd be...the GFS thus far has done a good job not calling for development, but then again most models don't do anything till W.Caribbean.

[Sanibel]

Pressure trumps appearance. Maybe if it heads north it will organize.


If I were to judge by eye alone I would say a hostile environment wore the Low down and it won't develop.

[Weatherfreak000]

Big area of convection starting to develop right over the area. Pressure falling and satellite appearance seem to be promising. 93L just might be alive after all...

[KWT]

Pressure trumps appearance. Maybe if it heads north it will organize.


If I were to judge by eye alone I would say a hostile environment wore the Low down and it won't develop.

Yeah but remember this is heading into a region that is well known for June systems, and the W.Gom/BoC tends to be very favourable region for development at this time of year. I think this has a decent chance still.

[Ivanhater]