ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

00Z Canadian switched from Texas to around New Orleans

[Stormcenter]

Here are some nice sat. loops of Bonnie.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Ivanhater]

00z Nogaps: Mobile

[Ivanhater]

HWRF: Mississippi

[Stratosphere747]

Looks like the TVCN is just SSW of Nola, around Houma I would say.

TVCN = NHC track ftw!

At least for the current advisory.

Breakpoints in this case would be between Morgan City - Grand Isle - Mouth Mississippi River.

[americanre1]

I still see around Sabine Pass for the second landfall of Ms. Bonnie.

[Wx_Warrior]

Reasoning behind Sabine Pass?

[americanre1]

Every time there is expected landfall somewheres around Morgan City it usually ends up either around New Orleans or Sabine Pass.

With what looks like a system that is getting better organized, I can see the Upper Level Winds have more control on where she will go and if I remember correctly the winds in the next few days are suppose to be almost due West in the upper level so that would cause her to go further West rather than East of Morgan City.

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[Ivanhater]

GFDL :Nola



I'm thinking the new track will probably be nudged east to New Orleans

[ROCK]

00Z Canadian switched from Texas to around New Orleans

actually the CMC is into central to SWLA....but splitting hairs I guess..the worst of it will be on the east and NE side....so NO will get something I am sure...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Wx_Warrior]

Another weak EURO run

[Wx_Warrior]

[Ivanhater]

I do agree with the notion that the global models have a hard time seeing such small systems.

[Wx_Warrior]

[ROCK]

Another weak EURO run

yep..nothing to look at...

[sphelps8681]

When do the models come out again? Do current models reflect a wnw heading (according to TWC) and the data found by recon?

[TheBurn]

[DTWright]

The worse thing about this may be the path and the 3-4 FT surge that she causes along the Panhandle, AL, and MS Coasts stirring up the oil and pushing some inland.

[brunota2003]

What are the chances she loops around (assuming she makes it as a TC to landfall along the Gulf Coast) and then gets left behind in the Atlantic over the Gulf Stream? Would be very interesting.

[rockyman]

6z HWRF:


6z GFDL: