ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[TheBurn]

[KFDM Meteorologist]

THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...GLOBAL
AND HURRICANE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST ON WEAKENING OR EVEN
DISSIPATING THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY.

[ROCK]

THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...GLOBAL
AND HURRICANE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST ON WEAKENING OR EVEN
DISSIPATING THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY.

have to agree...be interesting to see whats left if anything after exit....good news for the oil spill areas...

[Frank2]

True enough - not too often that we see such a large ULL covering almost the entire Gulf...

My guess is that Bonnie's toast...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Probably good guess!

[Ivanhater]

The damage is already done. Being under a tropical storm warning right now, the oil spill clean up has been severely hampered. This is not good news for the oil spill area. BTW, the track forecast has been horrible with this system, what makes anyone think intensity will be even better.

[Stormcenter]

Funny but good points concerning Bonnie's track forecast and future intensity.
As I stated before in another post tropical systems don't always follow the rules
and sometimes have something up their sleeves. Not saying it will happen with Bonnie
but just that you never know with these things.

The damage is already done. Being under a tropical storm warning right now, the oil spill clean up has been severely hampered. This is not good news for the oil spill area. BTW, the track forecast has been horrible with this system, what makes anyone think intensity will be even better.

[Ivanhater]

HWRF

[DTWright]

Now that's right in our backyard there. What strength is it showing there IH?

Thanks Brother

[Ivanhater]

That looks about 50mph.

[DTWright]

That's about what I was thinking. Are the new runs starting to come out now? Thanks

[ROCK]

The damage is already done. Being under a tropical storm warning right now, the oil spill clean up has been severely hampered. This is not good news for the oil spill area. BTW, the track forecast has been horrible with this system, what makes anyone think intensity will be even better.

Good news for the oil spill area is that you dont have a hurricane with a 15ft storm surge.. ..all you will have is a passing t-storm and some wind. Might even help break up any oil remaining out there....

[DTWright]

True Rock, but even a 3ft - 4ft surge would basically suck for the beaches from Panama City all the way to the MGC

[Ivanhater]

The damage is already done. Being under a tropical storm warning right now, the oil spill clean up has been severely hampered. This is not good news for the oil spill area. BTW, the track forecast has been horrible with this system, what makes anyone think intensity will be even better.

Good news for the oil spill area is that you dont have a hurricane with a 15ft storm surge.. ..all you will have is a passing t-storm and some wind. Might even help break up any oil remaining out there....

That's the truth Rock, but just the halt in cleanup and being under a tropical storm warning just adds to the insult. Pensacola for instance depends on tourism on our beaches during the summer months.

Come soon enough we will be tracking the big ones.

I still don't turn my back on these small systems, they can ramp up fast with any relaxation in the upper winds and that can be hard to predict sometimes.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL

[tolakram]

Did the GFDL initialize over Florida, or south of Florida?

Canadian loses it, so I suspect Bonnie is either going to be extremely small or gone.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI JUL 23 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE (AL032010) 20100723 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100723  1800   100724  0600   100724  1800   100725  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.8N  81.1W   26.8N  83.6W   28.2N  86.0W   29.4N  88.1W
BAMD    25.8N  81.1W   27.7N  84.8W   30.2N  88.3W   33.0N  90.4W
BAMM    25.8N  81.1W   27.1N  84.2W   29.0N  87.1W   30.8N  89.4W
LBAR    25.8N  81.1W   27.4N  84.4W   29.4N  87.6W   31.7N  89.8W
SHIP        30KTS          31KTS          35KTS          37KTS
DSHP        30KTS          33KTS          37KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100725  1800   100726  1800   100727  1800   100728  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    30.6N  89.8W   32.9N  92.7W   35.8N  94.3W   39.4N  94.4W
BAMD    35.3N  91.1W   38.1N  87.9W   37.8N  79.4W   34.7N  71.4W
BAMM    32.7N  90.8W   35.8N  91.7W   38.2N  88.8W   38.0N  82.7W
LBAR    33.8N  90.3W   36.5N  86.4W   37.1N  77.2W   36.5N  64.8W
SHIP        40KTS          42KTS          45KTS          47KTS
DSHP        31KTS          27KTS          27KTS          28KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  25.8N LONCUR =  81.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  23.8N LONM12 =  77.8W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =  22.2N LONM24 =  74.9W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[smw1981]

The models have been trending east with almost every run..we could use the rain (here in Mobile, AL), so I am hoping that she hits as a weak TS just to our west!

[petit_bois]

The models have been trending east with almost every run..we could use the rain (here in Mobile, AL), so I am hoping that she hits as a weak TS just to our west!

Need the rain but don't need the oil that would likely come ashore with it...
we just can't win.

I kind of like the idea of a strong TS coming in around Panama City giving us a strong north wind that pushes all the oil deep into the gulf and away from us... But then... that woudn't be nice to whom ever would have to deal with it then...
Just a no win situation. Thank God it doesn't matter what we want a storm to do... they just do what they do... wishacsting or not.

[lebron23]

Somewhere between New Orleans and Mobile should get a 40-50 MPH storm.