ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[hurricaneCW]

The model runs displayed at the bottom wouldn't apply to ex-Colin anyway. Also the BAMS have shifted quite a bit to the left from the prior runs, but lowered the intensity.

[Macrocane]

Yes the models doesn't intensify Colin as much as earlier today, although I still think it could become a cat 1 hurricane especially if the increase in organization that had today persists.

[KWT]

Models appear to have overall shifted a little to the east and yeah they aren't quite agressive but they do still call for a solid TS which looks reasonable based on whats occuring.

[Blown Away]

The BAM models keep slowing down at the end run and turn west? I wonder if the steering currents are breaking down and Colin will stall or loop around?

[ROCK]

way above where the BAMMs are useful...cut off about 20N.....stick with the dynamics and the globals...IMO....

[clfenwi]

After strengthening through the first 18 hours, GFS weakens it and all but entirely kills it off. Compare 00Z 84h to the images posted on the previous page:



Loop

[clfenwi]

00Z CMC is much more modest as well; pretty much has it off to the races to the north after 48h.



Model page

[clfenwi]

NOGAPS is more modest as well, compared to the 12Z run. 108h



loop

[Ivanhater]

I would imagine the Canadian as done the best with this system..showing a recurve since day one....verification should be out soon.

[Gladstone]

The model runs displayed at the bottom wouldn't apply to ex-Colin anyway. Also the BAMS have shifted quite a bit to the left from the prior runs, but lowered the intensity.

The BAMs don't seem to be working; I've seen scant little movement westwards over the last five hours.

It looks like there's a vacuum cleaner sucking this thing due northwards!

Whatever the case, I'd like to see at least two or three more degrees longitude by noon.

[KWT]

GFS no where near as strong with this one on its 0z run as it was before...

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 051226
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1226 UTC THU AUG 5 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE COLIN (AL042010) 20100805 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100805  1200   100806  0000   100806  1200   100807  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    23.0N  65.0W   24.5N  67.0W   25.7N  68.4W   26.7N  69.1W
BAMD    23.0N  65.0W   24.5N  65.7W   25.9N  65.9W   27.4N  65.7W
BAMM    23.0N  65.0W   24.2N  66.4W   25.1N  67.5W   26.1N  68.1W
LBAR    23.0N  65.0W   25.0N  66.4W   26.5N  67.2W   27.8N  67.6W
SHIP        35KTS          36KTS          37KTS          37KTS
DSHP        35KTS          36KTS          37KTS          37KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100807  1200   100808  1200   100809  1200   100810  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    27.8N  69.5W   30.2N  69.6W   32.6N  69.4W   34.2N  68.5W
BAMD    28.8N  65.6W   31.6N  66.3W   34.7N  65.9W   36.3N  60.7W
BAMM    27.0N  68.5W   29.1N  69.5W   31.3N  70.8W   32.5N  71.7W
LBAR    28.7N  67.5W   31.8N  67.6W   35.5N  66.4W   41.0N  59.4W
SHIP        38KTS          47KTS          51KTS          51KTS
DSHP        38KTS          47KTS          51KTS          51KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  23.0N LONCUR =  65.0W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  20.4N LONM12 =  62.4W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  17.9N LONM24 =  59.5W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   90NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[artist]

interesting to see the NHC line west of everything else.

[thetruesms]

interesting to see the NHC line west of everything else.

It's also almost two days old - that's the forecast track from the last advisory

[artist]

interesting to see the NHC line west of everything else.

It's also almost two days old - that's the forecast track from the last advisory

ah ha! lol That explains it!

[clfenwi]

12Z NOGAPS showing a pretty close shave for Bermuda; bit closer than the 00Z run.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Loop

[Macrocane]

The Euro shows an intensification of Colin for the first time:

ECMWF 12z 72 hours

[supercane]

309
WHXX01 KWBC 060043
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC FRI AUG 6 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN (AL042010) 20100806 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100806 0000 100806 1200 100807 0000 100807 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.6N 66.3W 27.2N 67.4W 28.6N 67.9W 29.9N 68.0W
BAMD 25.6N 66.3W 27.3N 66.2W 28.8N 65.5W 29.9N 65.3W
BAMM 25.6N 66.3W 26.8N 67.1W 27.9N 67.3W 28.9N 67.6W
LBAR 25.6N 66.3W 27.4N 66.7W 28.8N 66.6W 30.2N 66.8W
SHIP 50KTS 51KTS 53KTS 55KTS
DSHP 50KTS 51KTS 53KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100808 0000 100809 0000 100810 0000 100811 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.1N 68.1W 34.1N 68.4W 37.3N 67.1W 40.6N 58.8W
BAMD 30.9N 65.5W 33.6N 65.9W 35.9N 64.5W 39.1N 56.8W
BAMM 29.9N 68.0W 32.4N 69.2W 34.6N 69.0W 35.0N 63.4W
LBAR 31.4N 66.4W 35.1N 64.7W 40.7N 58.5W 46.8N 45.4W
SHIP 57KTS 57KTS 50KTS 41KTS
DSHP 57KTS 57KTS 50KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.6N LONCUR = 66.3W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 23.0N LONM12 = 65.0W DIRM12 = 322DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 20.4N LONM24 = 62.4W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[supercane]

[supercane]

interesting to see the NHC line west of everything else.

It's also almost two days old - that's the forecast track from the last advisory

The NHC track listed in the legend is indeed the most recent one from the special advisory. If it were two days old, it would have an initial position closer to the islands.