WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[SFLcane]

Just amazing satellite presentation on this cyclone...Extremely dangerous storm.

[cycloneye]

I imagine that Megi is getting plenty of ACE units in only one warning. What are the latest numbers? Anyone who may have them,go to the ACE thread at TT.

[senorpepr]

BTW, here's the skew-t from the last eyewall pass

[btangy]

It's not everyday that you see four flags on a wind barb. 200 knots at 860 mb is most impressive!

[CrazyC83]

That would be just a couple hundred feet above the surface too - the mountaintops could easily see 200+ kt winds, especially in gusts...

[Ptarmigan]

Megi is the strongest tropical cyclone in the world for 2010. It has sustained winds of 180 mph and gusts of 220 mph and central pressure of 893 millibars. That is more intense than Igor, Ike, Katrina, or Rita..

Everyone in Megi's track NEEDS TO GET OUT AND TAKE COVER!!!!!!!

I notice that Hong Kong is in the 5 day cone and they need to watch Megi too. If it hits Hong Kong, it will be really catastrophic.

Even though West Pacific is not very active due to La Nina, they bring us surprises, like in this case, Megi.

[KWT]

Yeah without a doubt people need to get ready, even for an area prone to strong systems like the Phillippines this one is up there with some of the more brutal storms in the past.

Hope everyone on Luzon is ready for this, CDO heading over them now so conditions are gonna go down hill rapidly...

[phwxenthusiast]

i just saw the Tropical Update from the Weather Channel (US)... that's was probably the longest update for the w. pac that i've seen from TWC...

they also mentioned talking to a "freelance photographer", i'm guessing that's our very own Typhoon Hunter...

sad though that that certain "photographer" reported that no massive evacuations in the place where he stays... if it's true then it's really sad, imagine the devastation and perhaps loss of lives...

[supercane]

JMA Dvorak still at T7.5 for 18Z update:
992
TCNA21 RJTD 171800
CCAA 17180 47644 MEGI(1013) 17176 11242 11444 275// 92410=

[KWT]

That would be just a couple hundred feet above the surface too - the mountaintops could easily see 200+ kt winds, especially in gusts...

Yeah thats just insane winds, really wouldn't like to be in the way of that, its like being in a very large and strong tornado, utterly amazing stuff!

[HurricaneRobert]

Mega Megi

[supercane]

PGTW (JTWC) 18Z Dvorak also remains at T7.5:

TPPN11 PGTW 171814
A. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 17/1730Z
C. 17.6N
D. 124.2E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T7.5/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. A 25NM WMG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A
CMG RING. ADDED 1.0 FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR A DT OF 7.5. FT
BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/1312Z 18.0N 124.9E MMHS
KIENZLE

[JTE50]

[quote="Everyone in Megi's track NEEDS TO GET OUT AND TAKE COVER!!!!!!![/quote]

Looking at the lastest satellite loop it appears Megi may head over or very near Tuguegarao (about 30 miles inland). It's the only "city" in that area and I'd imagine that folks evacuated from the northern coast like Aparri to Tuguegarao like some did for Lupit a year ago. That road from Aparri to Tuguegarao takes about 1.5 hours to traverse on a good day. Anyway, Megi may hit a populated city where folks evacuated to if the track continues. Given that it's the middle of the night there I don't imagine many folks are on that road. So even if they wanted to get out of Tuguegarao it would probably be wise to stay there. The last thing you'd want to do is be caught out in the open with this storm and most of the road from Tuguegarao to Aparri is "out in the open". Here is a page from my trip out there a year ago for Lupit to give you a feel for the area: http://www.extremestorms.com/typhoon_lupit.htm

I just hope Megi goes through that much less populated area between Tuguegarao and Aparri and dissipates quickly. I worry about all the people that don't have adequate shelter. You don't have massive evacuations like here in the USA. Lots of folks are just gonna ride it out where they are at in weak structures nowhere near strong enough for this storm, is there even one?. Then there is the rain water coming down into this valley from nearby mountains from east and west. That scares me more than anything in a typhoon. I was in this area a year ago and still see peoples faces in my head I met along the way, full of life, hard working, a joy to be around . . . I hope they will be safe.

[Ptarmigan]

Code: Select all

618

wtpn31 pgtw 171500
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Super typhoon 15w (Megi) warning nr 019
   01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
   Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
   wind radii valid over open water only
    ---
   warning position:
   171200z --- near 18.1n 125.1e
     movement past six hours - 250 degrees at 11 kts
     position accurate to within 020 nm
     position based on eye fixed by satellite
   present wind distribution:
   Max sustained winds - 155 kt, gusts 190 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
                            040 nm southeast quadrant
                            050 nm southwest quadrant
                            060 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 095 nm northeast quadrant
                            065 nm southeast quadrant
                            080 nm southwest quadrant
                            095 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 140 nm northeast quadrant
                            105 nm southeast quadrant
                            125 nm southwest quadrant
                            145 nm northwest quadrant
   repeat posit: 18.1n 125.1e

Megi is about average size based on wind swath thankfully. That does not mean this should not be taken seriously. Megi NEEDS to be taken seriously since it is an intense super typhoon!

[hurricaneCW]

That's what is a good thing, it's relatively small for a super typhoon of its strength. Igor was much larger than MEGI is although I do think that MEGI will get larger by its 2nd landfall or after it passes through the Luzon area.

[dataclese]

I am from the USA and my wife is returning home at this time from visiting with family in the Philippines. She will be flying from Mindanao (in the south) to Manila later today. She is due to arrive in Manila at 10:00AM Local time on Monday the 18th, she then flies on to Taiwan leaving Manila at 7:00 PM local time. How likely is this storm to impact her flight(s) in the air or on the ground? Looks like perfect timing for her to be flying into the southern end of the outer bands just as it is closest to Manila.

Any info would be appreciated.

Regards

[supercane]

JMA 18Z:

WTPQ20 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 17.6N 124.2E GOOD
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 890HPA
MXWD 120KT
GUST 170KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181800UTC 16.9N 119.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 191800UTC 16.9N 117.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 201800UTC 18.0N 115.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

CMA 18Z:

WTPQ20 BABJ 171800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 171800 UTC
00HR 17.6N 124.2E 895HPA 72M/S
30KTS 320KM
50KTS 110KM
P12HR W 16KM/H
P+24HR 17.2N 120.6E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 17.6N 117.4E 940HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 18.2N 114.8E 925HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 18.8N 113.0E 930HPA 52M/S
P+120HR 19.4N 111.9E 930HPA 52M/S=

[P.K.]

Which per Digital-Typhoon makes it just the 20th TY since 1950 to drop to 890hPa and the first since Flo in 1990.

[vbhoutex]

i just saw the Tropical Update from the Weather Channel (US)... that's was probably the longest update for the w. pac that i've seen from TWC...

they also mentioned talking to a "freelance photographer", i'm guessing that's our very own Typhoon Hunter...

sad though that that certain "photographer" reported that no massive evacuations in the place where he stays... if it's true then it's really sad, imagine the devastation and perhaps loss of lives...

Like JTE mentioned, where would they evacuate to? I don't know any more than what I can read about that area. JTE has been there and says there are really no shelters available to handle winds this strong. Do you know of strong shelters available in that area? Sounds to me like those in Appari may do well to just stay there as opposed to moving South more into the path of Megi.

[JTE50]

I am from the USA and my wife is returning home at this time from visiting with family in the Philippines. She will be flying from Mindanao (in the south) to Manila later today. She is due to arrive in Manila at 10:00AM Local time on Monday the 18th, she then flies on to Taiwan leaving Manila at 7:00 PM local time. How likely is this storm to impact her flight(s) in the air or on the ground? Looks like perfect timing for her to be flying into the southern end of the outer bands just as it is closest to Manila.

Any info would be appreciated.

Regards

These are just my thoughts only: if the winds at the airport are not too high then the flight will go, once airborne they can easily fly around the storm. Looking at a map, Manila should be far enough away from the core to not shut down the airport. I'm sure folks like GMA in Manila will have accurate info on the airport situation.