ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[TheBurn]

[thetruesms]

The models have been trending east with almost every run..we could use the rain (here in Mobile, AL), so I am hoping that she hits as a weak TS just to our west!

Need the rain but don't need the oil that would likely come ashore with it...
we just can't win.

I kind of like the idea of a strong TS coming in around Panama City giving us a strong north wind that pushes all the oil deep into the gulf and away from us... But then... that woudn't be nice to whom ever would have to deal with it then...
Just a no win situation. Thank God it doesn't matter what we want a storm to do... they just do what they do... wishacsting or not.

Well, if it got pushed into the loop eddy, it would just swirl around in the middle of the gulf until it weathered away, which seems less crappy than other scenarios

[smw1981]

The models have been trending east with almost every run..we could use the rain (here in Mobile, AL), so I am hoping that she hits as a weak TS just to our west!

Need the rain but don't need the oil that would likely come ashore with it...
we just can't win.

I agree 100% but if she hit just west of here (here being the Alabama coast), because she is so small, her eastern side should be near the surface oil, pushing it south (not towards the coastline)...

[Stormcenter]

Just remember my early second landfall prediction on Tuesday (or Wednesday) was the AL/FL stateline.

[StormClouds63]

This ULL is one of the largest I've ever seen in the GOM. Maybe in this special case, it, rather than Bonnie, deserves to be named. ULL of the 2010 tropical season so far.

[cycloneye]

From the 10 AM CDT advisory on the performance of the models.

WE HAVE TO GIVE CREDIT TO DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT ALL ALONG
FORECAST THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF BONNIE.

[StormTracker]

The damage is already done. Being under a tropical storm warning right now, the oil spill clean up has been severely hampered. This is not good news for the oil spill area. BTW, the track forecast has been horrible with this system, what makes anyone think intensity will be even better.

Good news for the oil spill area is that you dont have a hurricane with a 15ft storm surge.. ..all you will have is a passing t-storm and some wind. Might even help break up any oil remaining out there....

That's the truth Rock, but just the halt in cleanup and being under a tropical storm warning just adds to the insult. Pensacola for instance depends on tourism on our beaches during the summer months.

Come soon enough we will be tracking the big ones.

I still don't turn my back on these small systems, they can ramp up fast with any relaxation in the upper winds and that can be hard to predict sometimes.

IH, look at it this way, maybe it's not so bad! Bonnie came right through my back yard(as I sort of calculated it would by the way), and only lost 2 avocados & no mangoes from my fruit trees! I was working(for FedEx)at the time she came through in the downtown Miami area and I remember only once that a wind gust shook my truck! Bonnie was a joke for us as a so-called TS down here, so maybe the same thing will happen in the oil spill area(I know, it's a body of water, it's different)! Look, I've seen way worst rain storms than Bonnie! Hopefully it won't have such a dramatic impact on the area as we're thinking it might! Positive thoughts bring positive results!!!

[Weatherfreak000]

CMC favored here?