ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

The NE quadrant should be more interesting!

In a west-moving storm, the NW quad should be strongest.

[Aric Dunn]

Will we get a Special Advisory, a TCU on a new storm or just wait until 5 pm?

they will probably do a special advisory since its so close to land...

[cwachal]

I think special advisory with 35 knts and then at 5 they will update it with new information from recon

[Vortmax1]

The NE quadrant should be more interesting!

LOL...No joke!
I can't wait to see the rest of this system!!

[South Texas Storms]

finally this one develops...

[Brent]

Finally!

[kevin]

Any chance of a threat to Florida?

[CrazyC83]

Any chance of a threat to Florida?

Virtually no chance unless a trough can get that low, and in mid-September that is highly unlikely.

[HURAKAN]

Any chance of a threat to Florida?

0% ... no worries, it has Mexico tattooed.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CrazyC83]

Not much of an inner core, that might be a saving grace for the Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

That was just after 8 AM.

[BigA]

It's a shame that some place in Mexico may well be preparing for a hurricane on the day of their bicentennial (Sept 16)

[Vortmax1]

Yep...here we go.
Storm 13!

[SouthFloridawx]

[pcolaman]

Looking like banding is going on now

[Aric Dunn]

The next set of Models will be better now that we have a position they all can agree on and a strength ... right now there so spread because they have it initialized all over the place.

[cpdaman]

is there any indication that this may not make the BOC by much....i.e further south than models forecast?

i believe there is a sentiment to a degree that we have waited so long for this to develop that we want something to track now that it is here....

where's WXMAN 57.....

i would like his take on track of (future karl?)

[BigA]

is there any indication that this may not make the BOC by much....i.e further south than models forecast?

i believe there is a sentiment to a degree that we have waited so long for this to develop that we want something to track now that it is here....

where's WXMAN 57.....

i would like his take on track of (future karl?)

\

Unless the 18Z and 00Z models are drastically different from the 12Z, it should make it at least into the southern BOC. The steering flow looks like there will be a northerly component to Karl's motion until it gets to the Yucatan, which should give it enough latitude to get back over water.

[Aric Dunn]

is there any indication that this may not make the BOC by much....i.e further south than models forecast?

i believe there is a sentiment to a degree that we have waited so long for this to develop that we want something to track now that it is here....

where's WXMAN 57.....

i would like his take on track of (future karl?)

If it moves in a west motion from this point it would be barely in the BOC mostly over land... but it appears its moving slightly north of west right now. Also as the system gets deeper the steering is a little flatter ( more east to west ) so it would likely move WNW and get into the BOC at which time the steering may get a little weak before the ridge builds in stronger and it should push it west or WSW