WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[dataclese]

I am from the USA and my wife is returning home at this time from visiting with family in the Philippines. She will be flying from Mindanao (in the south) to Manila later today. She is due to arrive in Manila at 10:00AM Local time on Monday the 18th, she then flies on to Taiwan leaving Manila at 7:00 PM local time. How likely is this storm to impact her flight(s) in the air or on the ground? Looks like perfect timing for her to be flying into the southern end of the outer bands just as it is closest to Manila.

Any info would be appreciated.

Regards

These are just my thoughts only: if the winds at the airport are not too high then the flight will go, once airborne they can easily fly around the storm. Looking at a map, Manila should be far enough away from the core to not shut down the airport. I'm sure folks like GMA in Manila will have accurate info on the airport situation.

Thanks

[P.K.]

KMA winds up to 119kts and pressure down to 890hPa.

WTKO20 RKSL 171800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME TY 1013 MEGI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 171800UTC 17.6N 124.2E
MOVEMENT WSW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 890HPA 119KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 181800UTC 17.0N 120.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 191800UTC 17.0N 116.8E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
72HR
POSITION 201800UTC 17.9N 115.0E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[HURAKAN]

closer to landfall, really scary stuff

[euro6208]

I just woke up and I come online and find this MONSTER! with winds of 155 knots! omg

[KWT]

The thing is I bet this is lower then 890mbs now as well...recon was finding 893mbs and since it left I think the presentation has stepped up again, I'd bet if recon went in there now it'd find something close to 885mbs...

Western convection seems to be getting just a smidge warmer as it comes towards landfall I do notice.

[JTE50]

i just saw the Tropical Update from the Weather Channel (US)... that's was probably the longest update for the w. pac that i've seen from TWC...

they also mentioned talking to a "freelance photographer", i'm guessing that's our very own Typhoon Hunter...

sad though that that certain "photographer" reported that no massive evacuations in the place where he stays... if it's true then it's really sad, imagine the devastation and perhaps loss of lives...

Like JTE mentioned, where would they evacuate to? I don't know any more than what I can read. JTE has been there and says there are really no shelters available to handle winds this strong. Do you know of strong shelters available in that area? Sounds to me like those in Appari may do well to just stay there as opposed to moving Southmore into the path of Megi.

Indeed, the photographer you mention was James Reynolds, aka typhoon hunter here and "typhoonfury" on twitter.

I took a "cab" from Aparri to Tuguegarao for about $10. The driver stopped by his modest house along the way. Let's just say a category 1 would do some serious damage to his house. Lots of folks along the road were in the same type of "house". I would not stay there for a typhoon, no way, but where are you going to go given the forecast track is not always accurate - so stay where you are and take you chances I guess. Looks like this will be a daytime event so at least you can see what is happening.

James and crew have the capability to get pictures and footage out of the area even if power goes out. I'm sure he'll send something as soon as the event is over.

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 17.6N 124.2E GOOD
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 890HPA
MXWD 120KT
GUST 170KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181800UTC 16.9N 119.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 191800UTC 16.9N 117.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 201800UTC 18.0N 115.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 211800UTC 19.2N 114.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
120HF 221800UTC 20.5N 114.6E 260NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY =



Earlier ASCAT underestimates peak winds, as its low bias is well known:

[euro6208]

wow am i getting this right, recon found 192 knots flight level winds with a central pressure of 893 central pressure?!

This is still intensifying and I bet the pressure is way lower! we need more recon please!

[GCANE]

Still very high rain rate on the eye-wall.

I just check last drop and theta-e in the eye was 372.8K.

Downdrafts from the eye must not be effecting the infeed into the core.

[phwxenthusiast]

i just saw the Tropical Update from the Weather Channel (US)... that's was probably the longest update for the w. pac that i've seen from TWC...

they also mentioned talking to a "freelance photographer", i'm guessing that's our very own Typhoon Hunter...

sad though that that certain "photographer" reported that no massive evacuations in the place where he stays... if it's true then it's really sad, imagine the devastation and perhaps loss of lives...

Like JTE mentioned, where would they evacuate to? I don't know any more than what I can read about that area. JTE has been there and says there are really no shelters available to handle winds this strong. Do you know of strong shelters available in that area? Sounds to me like those in Appari may do well to just stay there as opposed to moving South more into the path of Megi.

the gov't was really adamant in moving people as early as friday but "forced evac" didn't begin until saturday/sunday IIRC... and i'm not expecting really really massive evacs wherein they would move people into other provinces; i was just wondering if the authorities tried to move people living near the coastal areas as well as in the mountains out of harms way..

the gov't usually use public schools as storm shelters... they're made of concrete and unless there will be massive flooding and landslides, i'm "guessing" that's the best place for them to stay.. yeah, roof may be blown out but it's better than being in weaker houses...

of course, right now i would suggest they stay put instead of travelling farther south...

[Robbie]

From the looks of the data and pics, it looks much worse than anything in the Western Hemisphere with the debatable exception of the 1935 Keys Hurricane, and almost as bad, but not quite as bad as Cyclone Zoe a few years ago or Austrailian Cyclone Monica in 2006.

[SFLcane]

[euro6208]

Jeff Masters from weather underground believes Megi could have winds of 200 mph sustained! oh god

[JTE50]

does it look like the last frame is flattening out to you folks? ttp://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html

[srainhoutx]

19Z...

[dataclese]

does it look like the last frame is flattening out to you folks? ttp://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html

Looks like it is going farther south than they said it was....

[JTE50]

does it look like the last frame is flattening out to you folks? ttp://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html

Looks like it is going farther south than they said it was....

oh for sure, but it should flatten out at some point

[SFLcane]

does it look like the last frame is flattening out to you folks? ttp://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html

Jim it maybe flattening out a bit but unfortunately this is an extremely well developed cyclone and will no doupt be devastating for the Philippines. I'am sure you wish you were there...Pretty sure james will capture some great footage.

[KWT]

Looksd like its decently south of the forecasted point at the moment, I suspect given this is the case the STR is a little stronger then expected afterall and therefore I think the ECM track is more likely to come off. The JMA track towards HK would raise alot of interest but I suspect this one is going further west then that...

[euro6208]

I bet this is getting to Super Typhoon Tip's record low of 870 mb