ATL: EARL - Models

[Lori]

What time does the Euro start coming out?

[Ikester]

What time does the Euro start coming out?

Not for another hour or two.

[paintplaye]

What time does the Euro start coming out?

Not for another hour or two.

Closer to 2 but if you go into the s2k chat you can usually get it about 30min early.

[Lori]

Thanks

[LowndesCoFire]

00z nogaps a near direct hit on PR





https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

What is with the SW motion of Earl at 120hrs on that NOGAPS loop??

[KWT]

Really wouldn't take much of a delay from the 00z GFS with regards to the upper troughing for it to hit the E.coast on this run...

Also finally its sorted out Earl and Fiona and stopped trying to absorb 97L into itself keeping it a seperate feature.

[Weatherfreak000]

Hello all! Btw ROCK great post on Vegas and gambling classic the sad part is it is REALLY like that for some people.

If you take Earl's current movement (not taking into account any more westward than expected motion) Earl definitely effects the Leewards and PR.

Interesting situation developing that is for sure. The NHC expects a turn more to the NW by tomorrow night so we will see.

[Ikester]

erased due to error.

[TwisterFanatic]

From the looks of things the EURO brings Earl pretty close to Cape Cod between 120 and 144 hours.

120 hrs...




144 hrs...




I could be wrong, but i think it gets pretty close.

[Ikester]

erased due to error..

[TwisterFanatic]

Pretty sure that is 97L, Ike

[Ikester]

erased due to error.

[Ikester]

Pretty sure that is 97L, Ike

I think you'd be correct. WOW, I can't believe I did that. TIme for bed.

[TwisterFanatic]

Pretty sure that is 97L, Ike

I think you'd be correct. WOW, I can't believe I did that. TIme for bed.

Its confusing with all these systems out there. lol

[jinftl]

Pretty good model consensus right now that this may aim at some portion of the east coast but veer off to the northeast before getting too close....let's see what the trend is of future model runs...

[Hurrilurker]

What's scary is that some of those islands could get hit by two pretty intense storms in close succession, maybe only 3 days apart.

[TheDreamTraveler]

06Z GFS

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 291224
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1224 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL (AL072010) 20100829 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100829  1200   100830  0000   100830  1200   100831  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.1N  57.7W   18.3N  60.0W   19.6N  62.4W   20.8N  65.0W
BAMD    17.1N  57.7W   17.7N  60.0W   18.5N  62.0W   19.7N  63.5W
BAMM    17.1N  57.7W   18.1N  60.0W   19.2N  62.3W   20.4N  64.3W
LBAR    17.1N  57.7W   18.1N  60.3W   19.3N  62.4W   20.5N  64.2W
SHIP        65KTS          75KTS          87KTS          95KTS
DSHP        65KTS          75KTS          87KTS          95KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100831  1200   100901  1200   100902  1200   100903  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.7N  67.3W   23.5N  70.5W   29.1N  72.5W   36.2N  69.0W
BAMD    21.4N  64.9W   27.2N  68.8W   33.8N  72.4W   39.2N  70.3W
BAMM    21.6N  66.3W   25.0N  69.9W   30.6N  72.7W   37.0N  69.0W
LBAR    21.5N  65.8W   25.6N  68.8W   32.1N  70.4W   39.0N  69.7W
SHIP        98KTS         104KTS         108KTS         100KTS
DSHP        98KTS         104KTS         108KTS         100KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.1N LONCUR =  57.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  16.5N LONM12 =  54.6W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  15.9N LONM24 =  51.0W
WNDCUR =   65KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =   55KT
CENPRS =  985MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  140NM RD34SE =  100NM RD34SW =   40NM RD34NW = 100NM


[ronjon]

The 00Z ECM comes very close to Cape Cod and SE Maine on days 5 and 6. Really moving the storm - must be moving at 40 mph.

Day 5



Day 6

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The 00Z ECM comes very close to Cape Cod and SE Maine on days 5 and 6. Really moving the storm - must be moving at 40 mph.

Day 5



Day 6

Being between Saint Andrews & Saint Stephen on the Eastern side of Penobscot Bay (the large Bay that is along the SE Maine/SW NB border). I'd totally get slamed with, what looks like category two conditions, if that solution verifies.