ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

From HDOB 17:

Code: Select all


At flight level uncontaminated

From 85° at 43 knots
(From the E at ~ 49.4 mph)

At SFMR uncontaminated

(~ 61.7°F) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph)

[jinftl]

The consensus of the most recent model runs shows Richard winding down over land and not likely to hit water once landfall in belize takes place...i wouldn't give too much credence to the rogue model showing a track towards florida....even that model is showing the system being very weak/dissipated. SOme of the models that take the system into the Bay of Campeche drop it before the 120 hour period runs its course....that is because they show it dissipating.

Shocking words to be written from a resident of south florida some would contend....but in my opinion, this system currently poses no threat to not only florida, but no threat to the entire u.s. gulf coast at this time.

I haven't seen any models posted in awhile. Are all of the models not doing anything with Richard any longer, after it exits the Yuc???

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

 At SFMR 56 knots
(~ 64.4 mph) uncontaminated

[cycloneye]

That microwave revealed what recon is confirming,a strenghening Richard.

[sunnyday]

The fat lady must have a sore throat after having to sing so many times these storms fizzled.

[Macrocane]

This question may be a little dumb but I've seen many times people talking about the fat lady, what does it mean?

[brunota2003]

That microwave revealed what recon is confirming,a strenghening Richard.

From VDM from recon just now:

MAX FL WIND 70 KT NE QUAD 23:44:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 70 KT NW QUAD 23:53:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

INDICATIONS OF EYEWALL FORMING IN NORTHERN HALF OF STORM, LESS THAN 50 PERCENT COMPLETE, RADIUS OF CURVE 25 NM.

[srainhoutx]

This question may be a little dumb but I've seen many times people talking about the fat lady, what does it mean?

Kind of like, 'it's dead, Jim'.

[Macrocane]

Kind of like, 'it's dead, Jim'.

OK Thanks

[45NWOrlando]

This question may be a little dumb but I've seen many times people talking about the fat lady, what does it mean?

"It isn't over until the fat lady sings."

[cycloneye]

Ok peeps,lets return to discuss about Richard.

[cycloneye]

Decoded first Vortex Data Message.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 00:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 23:48:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°14'N 84°14'W (16.2333N 84.2333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 276 miles (444 km) to the ESE (108°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 654m (2,146ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (33°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 113° at 69kts (From the ESE at ~ 79.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (34°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 765m (2,510ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 759m (2,490ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:44:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 23:53:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
INDICATIONS OF EYEWALL FORMING IN NORTHERN HALF OF STORM, LESS THAN 50 PERCENT COMPLETE, RADIUS OF CURVE 25 NM.

[CrazyC83]

The FL winds equate to 53 kt at the surface. Combined with the SFMR, the intensity should remain 55 kt for now.

[srainhoutx]

995.2mb. Not too shabby.

[cycloneye]

Second decoded Vortex Data Message

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 00:50Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 0:34:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°16'N 84°20'W (16.2667N 84.3333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 269 miles (433 km) to the ESE (108°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 642m (2,106ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the W (263°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 12° at 62kts (From the NNE at ~ 71.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (265°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 763m (2,503ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 763m (2,503ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 23:53:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYEWALL RAGGED

[CrazyC83]

Based on latest Recon data, we are close to having Hurricane Richard, but not quite. Probably 60 kt at next advisory.

[cycloneye]

Third decoded Vortex Data Message of this mission.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 01:41Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 1:24:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°19'N 84°26'W (16.3167N 84.4333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 261 miles (421 km) to the ESE (108°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 642m (2,106ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (53°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 140° at 66kts (From the SE at ~ 76.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (53°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 734m (2,408ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the north quadrant at 1:30:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the north quadrant at 1:30:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the north quadrant at 1:32:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYEWALL GONE, BUT GOOD SPIRAL BAND FOR W AND N WALLS.

[Ptarmigan]

Richard's central pressure is relatively high for its wind strength. I have seen Category 1 hurricane with central pressure of 1,000 mb. Must be due to higher ambient pressure in the area.

[cycloneye]

Plane is acending so the mission is over.I agree with Crazy about 60kts at 11 PM.