QUEENSLAND : EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLGA

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 28
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 pm CST [8:30 pm EST] Wednesday 27 January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield
in the NT to Burketown in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington
Island.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Burketown to
Kowanyama in Queensland.

At 6:30 pm CST [7:00 pm EST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was estimated to be 15
kilometres southeast of Borroloola and 305 kilometres west of Mornington Island,
moving west at 10 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to move slowly offshore Thursday morning
where it is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the
NT/Qld Border and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, during Thursday
morning. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far east as
Burketown in Queensland, including Mornington Island, during Thursday if the
developing cyclone follows a more easterly track.

GALES are not expected between Burketown and Kowanyama within the next 24 hours.
However, GALES may develop late on Friday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas
in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem districts.

Abnormally high tides are expected between the NT Border and Burketown tonight
and tomorrow, where the sea level may exceed the highest tide of the year on the
largest tide of the day. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

People between Burketown in Queensland and Cape Shield, including Groote
Eylandt, in the Northern Territory should take precautions and listen to the
next advice at 11 pm CST [11:30pm EST]. If you are unsure about precautions to
be taken, information is available from your local government or local State
Emergency Service.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga at 6:30 pm CST [7:00 pm EST]:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 136.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 992 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Wednesday 27 January [11:30 pm
EST Wednesday 27 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 16.4S 137.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 137.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.1S 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.7S 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.8S 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.3S 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.0S 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.8S 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 137.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (OLGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND
COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND SUGGEST THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS YET TO EXIT INTO THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. BORROLOOLA, THE NEAREST REPORTING STATION TO THE LLCC,
IS REPORTING SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 994.1 MB, WHICH GENERALLY
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A 35 KNOT CIRCULATION. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AND ENTER THE GULF WITHIN THE NEXT DAY AS A
TRANSITORY, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. ALL AVAILABLE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR,
INDICATE A TURN BACK TOWARDS THE EAST WITHIN THE 12 TO 24 HOURS. AS
THIS RIDGE WEAKENS, MID TO DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT STEERING FORCE AND WILL TRACK THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE EAST, DEEPER INTO THE GULF. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM 28 DEGREES CELSIUS (C) NEAR THE COASTLINE
TO OVER 30 C FURTHER OUT TO SEA, WILL SUPPORT MARKED
INTENSIFICATION, IN ADDITION TO STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 OLGA WILL TRACK BACK OVER
LAND AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0714 UTC 27/01/2010
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 137.0E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [242 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/1800: 15.9S 136.5E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 996
+24: 28/0600: 15.5S 136.7E: 100 [185]: 040 [075]: 990
+36: 28/1800: 15.6S 137.3E: 130 [245]: 050 [095]: 984
+48: 29/0600: 16.2S 138.8E: 165 [305]: 055 [100]: 983
+60: 29/1800: 17.3S 140.7E: 210 [395]: 070 [130]: 972
+72: 30/0600: 19.1S 142.4E: 260 [480]: 040 [075]: 992
REMARKS:
Ex-TC Olga was located by radar close to the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast
and has recently moved in a SW direction taking it further inland. Cloud
structure has significantly improved in the last few hours with tightly curved
bands developing and cirrus outflow. Possible 0.4 wrap from visible satellite
imagery but FT based on MET with a slow development giving a FT of 2.5.

The system is forecast to move NW under the influence of the mid-level steering
ridge to the southwest, then recurve towards the N or NE early on Thursday as a
middle level trough amplifies over central Australia. The broad-scale
environment is very favourable for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone when the
LLCC moves further over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters, with divergent
outflow aloft and strong monsoonal westerlies to the north.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 29
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [11:30 pm EST] Wednesday 27 January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield
in the NT to Burketown in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington
Island.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Burketown to
Kowanyama in Queensland.

At 9:30 pm CST [10:00 pm EST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was estimated to be 10
kilometres west southwest of Borroloola and 230 kilometres south of Groote
Eylandt, moving west northwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to move slowly offshore during Thursday
where it is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the
NT/Qld Border and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, late on Thursday
morning. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far east as
Burketown in Queensland, including Mornington Island, during Thursday if the
developing cyclone follows a more easterly track.

GALES are not expected between Burketown and Kowanyama within the next 24 hours.
However, GALES may develop late on Friday or early Saturday

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas
in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem districts.

Abnormally high tides are expected between the NT Border and Burketown tonight
and Thursday, where the sea level may exceed the highest tide of the year on the
largest tide of the day. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

People between Burketown in Queensland and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt
and Mornington Island, in the Northern Territory should take precautions and
listen to the next advice at 2 am CST [2:30am EST]. If you are unsure about
precautions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga at 9:30 pm CST [10:00 pm EST]:
.Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 136.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Thursday 28 January [2:30 am EST
Thursday 28 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1251 UTC 27/01/2010
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 136.2E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [285 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/0000: 15.6S 135.8E: 080 [150]: 030 [055]: 994
+24: 28/1200: 15.3S 136.3E: 110 [205]: 045 [085]: 985
+36: 29/0000: 15.6S 137.3E: 140 [265]: 055 [100]: 979
+48: 29/1200: 16.5S 139.3E: 175 [325]: 065 [120]: 974
+60: 30/0000: 17.9S 140.9E: 220 [410]: 070 [130]: 970
+72: 30/1200: 19.8S 142.7E: 270 [500]: 045 [085]: 986
REMARKS:
Ex-TC Olga was located by synop and satellite close to the southern Gulf of
Carpentaria coast and continues to move in a generally W direction. Cloud
structure shows tightly curved bands and cirrus outflow, although deep
convection is transitory. 0.35 wrap from IR satellite imagery agreeing with MET
with a slow development, and PAT, giving a FT of 2.5.

The system is forecast to move NW under the influence of the mid-level steering
ridge to the southwest, then recurve towards the N or NE early on Thursday as a
middle level trough amplifies over central Australia. The broad-scale
environment is very favourable for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone when the
LLCC moves further over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters, with divergent
outflow aloft and strong monsoonal westerlies to the north.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 30
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST [2:30 am EST] Thursday 28 January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield
in the NT to Burketown in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington
Island.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Burketown to
Kowanyama in Queensland.

At 12:30 am CST [1:00 am EST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was estimated to be 15
kilometres northeast of Borroloola and
220 kilometres south of Groote Eylandt, moving northwest at 7 kilometres per
hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to move slowly offshore during today where
it is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the
NT/Qld Border and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, this afternoon. GALES
with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far east as Burketown in
Queensland, including Mornington Island, during today if the developing cyclone
follows a more easterly track.

GALES are not expected between Burketown and Kowanyama within the next 24 hours.
However, GALES may develop late on Friday or early Saturday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas
in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem districts.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected between Bing Bong in the Northern Territory
and Burketown in Queensland today, where the sea level may exceed the highest
tide of the year on the largest tide of the day, resulting in MINOR FLOODING at
the coast. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

People between Burketown in Queensland and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt
and Mornington Island, in the Northern Territory should take precautions and
listen to the next advice at 5 am CST [5:30am EST]. If you are unsure about
precautions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga at 12:30 am CST [1:00 am EST]:
.Centre located near...... 16.0 degrees South 136.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Thursday 28 January [5:30 am EST
Thursday 28 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Crostorm]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 31
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST [5:30 am EST] Thursday 28 January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield
in the NT to Burketown in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington
Island.

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from Burketown
to Pormpuraaw in Queensland.

At 3:30 am CST [4:00 am EST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was estimated to be 20
kilometres north of Borroloola and
210 kilometres south of Groote Eylandt, moving northwest at 5 kilometres per
hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to move slowly offshore during today where
it is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the
NT/Qld Border and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, late today. GALES with
gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far east as Burketown in
Queensland, including Mornington Island, tonight.

GALES are not expected between Burketown and Pormpuraaw within the next 24
hours. However, GALES may develop late on Friday or early Saturday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas
in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem districts.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING at the Northern Territory
coast and adjacent islands between Bing Bong and the Queensland Border tonight.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause MINOR FLOODING at the coast elsewhere between
Cape Shield in the Northern Territory and Burketown in Queensland today.

People between Burketown in Queensland and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt
and Mornington Island, in the Northern Territory should take precautions and
listen to the next advice at 8 am CST [8:30am EST]. If you are unsure about
precautions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga at 3:30 am CST [4:00 am EST]:
.Centre located near...... 15.9 degrees South 136.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 992 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am CST Thursday 28 January [8:30 am EST
Thursday 28 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 32
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 7:28 am CST [7:58 am EST] Thursday 28 January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield
to Burketown.

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from Burketown
to Pormpuraaw.

At 6:30 am CST [7:00 am EST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was estimated to be 35
kilometres north northwest of Borroloola and
200 kilometres south of Groote Eylandt, moving northwest at 5 kilometres per
hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to move slowly offshore during today where
it is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the
NT/Qld Border and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, late today. GALES with
gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far east as Burketown in
Queensland, including Mornington Island, tonight.

GALES are not expected between Burketown and Pormpuraaw within the next 24
hours. However, GALES may develop late on Friday or early Saturday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas
in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem districts.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING at the Northern Territory
coast and adjacent islands between Bing Bong and the Queensland Border tonight.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause MINOR FLOODING at the coast elsewhere between
Cape Shield in the Northern Territory and Burketown in Queensland today.

People between Burketown in Queensland and Cape Shield in the Northern
Territory, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island, should take
precautions and listen to the next advice at 11 am CST [11:30am EST]. If you are
unsure about precautions to be taken, information is available from your local
government or local State Emergency Service.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga at 6:30 am CST [7:00 am EST]:
.Centre located near...... 15.8 degrees South 136.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Thursday 28 January [11:30 am EST
Thursday 28 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 33
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [11:30 am EST] Thursday 28 January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield,
in the Northern Territory, to Burketown, in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt
and Mornington Island.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Burketown to
Pormpuraaw.

At 9:30 am CST [10:00 am EST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was estimated to be 25
kilometres north northwest of Borroloola and 225 kilometres south of Alyangula,
moving west northwest at 2 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to move slowly offshore later today where
it is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the
NT/Qld Border and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, overnight or early
Friday morning. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far
east as Burketown in Queensland, including Mornington Island, tonight.

GALES are not expected between Burketown and Pormpuraaw within the next 24
hours. However, GALES may develop late on Friday or early Saturday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas
in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem districts.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING at the Northern Territory
coast and adjacent islands between Bing Bong and the Queensland Border tonight.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause MINOR FLOODING at the coast elsewhere between
Cape Shield in the Northern Territory and Burketown in Queensland today.

People between Burketown in Queensland and Cape Shield in the Northern
Territory, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island, should take
precautions and listen to the next advice at 2 pm CST [2:30pm EST]. If you are
unsure about precautions to be taken, information is available from your local
government or local State Emergency Service.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga at 9:30 am CST [10:00 am EST]:
.Centre located near...... 15.9 degrees South 136.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 2 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Thursday 28 January [2:30 pm EST
Thursday 28 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Remains inland

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0219 UTC 28/01/2010
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.9S
Longitude: 136.2E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [294 deg]
Speed of Movement: 1 knots [2 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 175 nm [325 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/1200: 15.7S 136.3E: 080 [150]: 030 [055]: 996
+24: 29/0000: 15.7S 137.5E: 110 [205]: 045 [085]: 989
+36: 29/1200: 16.3S 139.7E: 145 [265]: 055 [100]: 983
+48: 30/0000: 18.0S 141.3E: 175 [325]: 055 [100]: 983
+60: 30/1200: 19.9S 142.7E: 225 [415]: 040 [075]: 991
+72: 31/0000: 21.7S 143.3E: 270 [500]: 030 [055]: 997
REMARKS:
Ex-TC Olga was located by synop and satellite data to be close to the southern
Gulf of Carpentaria coast. Surface observations from Borroloola suggest the
system has been slow-moving over the last few hours, with a generally NW
trajectory. Whilst there is less deep convection around the LLCC, the 24 hour
trend is classified as steady based on increased curvature. DT 2.0 based on 0.3
spiral wrap. MET/PT agree. FT=2.0 based on DT and MET.

Steering influences are currently nearly balanced, with the mid-level ridge to
the southwest still dominant and so in the short-term, a continuation of the
slow N/NW movement is forecast. Longer term, the system is expected to recurve
towards the NE/E later today or early Friday as a middle-level trough amplifies
over central Australia. Forecast track based on consensus of available 12Z and
00Z model runs. The broad-scale environment remains very favourable for
redevelopment of a tropical cyclone when the LLCC moves over southern Gulf of
Carpentaria waters, with divergent outflow and low shear aloft, and strong
monsoonal westerlies to the north.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[Crostorm]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 37
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [11:30 pm EST] Thursday 28 January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield
in the NT to Burketown in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington
Island.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Burketown to
Pormpuraaw in Queensland.

At 9:30 pm CST [10:00 pm EST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was estimated to be 55
kilometres west of Borroloola and 255 kilometres south southwest of Alyangula,
moving northeast at 6 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to move slowly offshore during Friday where
it is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Port
Roper and Burketown during Friday morning. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres
per hour may develop between Cape Shield and Port Roper on Friday if the low
takes a more northerly track.

GALES are not expected between Burketown and Pormpuraaw within the next 24
hours. However, GALES may develop early on Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas
in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem Districts.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING at the Northern Territory
coast and adjacent islands between Port McArthur and the Queensland Border
tonight.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are occurring along the Queensland Gulf of Carpentaria
coast and adjacent islands and are expected to exceed the high water mark at
high tide over the next few days.

People between Burketown in Queensland and Cape Shield in the Northern
Territory, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island, should take
precautions and listen to the next advice at 2 am CST [2:30 am EST]. If you are
unsure about precautions to be taken, information is available from your local
government or local State Emergency Service.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga at 9:30 pm CST [10:00 pm EST]:
.Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 135.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northeast at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Friday 29 January [2:30 am EST
Friday 29 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.2S 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.5S 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 136.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (OLGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK SLOWLY OVER LAND IN A SOUTHWARD DIRECTION
OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS. ACCORDINGLY, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 38
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST [2:30 am EST] Friday 29 January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield
in the NT to Burketown in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington
Island.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Burketown to
Pormpuraaw in Queensland.

At 12:30 am CST [1:00 am EST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was estimated to be 55
kilometres west of Borroloola and
255 kilometres south southwest of Alyangula, and was near stationary.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to move slowly offshore during Friday where
it is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Port
Roper and Burketown during Friday morning. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres
per hour may develop between Cape Shield and Port Roper on Friday if the low
takes a more northerly track.

GALES are not expected between Burketown and Pormpuraaw within the next 24
hours. However, GALES may develop early on Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas
in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem Districts.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING at the Northern Territory
coast and adjacent islands between Port McArthur and the Queensland Border
tonight.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are occurring along the Queensland Gulf of Carpentaria
coast and adjacent islands and are expected to exceed the high water mark at
high tide over the next few days.

People between Burketown in Queensland and Cape Shield in the Northern
Territory, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island, should take
precautions and listen to the next advice at 5 am CST [5:30 am EST]. If you are
unsure about precautions to be taken, information is available from your local
government or local State Emergency Service.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga at 12:30 am CST [1:00 am EST]:
.Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 135.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Friday 29 January [5:30 am EST
Friday 29 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1304 UTC 28/01/2010
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 135.8E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: northeast [044 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 999 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 29/0000: 15.9S 136.7E: 080 [150]: 030 [055]: 994
+24: 29/1200: 16.3S 138.7E: 110 [205]: 045 [085]: 987
+36: 30/0000: 17.7S 140.5E: 140 [265]: 050 [095]: 983
+48: 30/1200: 19.5S 141.6E: 175 [325]: 030 [055]: 995
+60: 31/0000: 21.1S 142.1E: 220 [410]: 030 [055]: 994
+72: 31/1200: 22.2S 142.7E: 270 [500]: 025 [045]: 996
REMARKS:
Ex-TC Olga was located by surface and satellite data to be close to Borroloola.
Surface observations from Borroloola suggest the system has been slow-moving
over the last few hours. Overall convective structure has inproved slightly
during the past 24 hours with increased central convection. FT=2.5 based on
adjusted PAT.

Longer term, the system is expected to accelerate towards the E during Friday as
a middle-level trough amplifies over central Australia. Straightening of the
cirrus boundary in the SW quadrant suggests that this interaction has commenced.
The broad-scale environment remains favourable for intensification when system
moves over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters, with divergent outflow, low
shear aloft, and strong monsoonal westerlies to the north. The official forecast
track has 24 hours over water allowing Olga to reach category 2 by landfall on
the Queensland coast.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 39
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST [5:30 am EST] Friday 29 January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield
in the NT to Gilbert River Mouth in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and
Mornington Island.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Gilbert RIver
Mouth to Pormpuraaw.

At 3:30 am CST [4:00 am EST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was estimated to be 55
kilometres west of Borroloola and
245 kilometres south southwest of Alyangula, and was near stationary.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to move slowly offshore during Friday where
it is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone late Friday or early
Saturday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Port
Roper and Gilbert River Mouth late Friday or early Saturday. GALES with gusts to
110 kilometres per hour may develop between Cape Shield and Port Roper late
Friday or early Saturday if the low takes a more northerly track.

GALES are not expected between Gilbert River Mouth and Pormpuraaw within the
next 24 hours. However, GALES may develop Saturday afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas
in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem Districts.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING at the Northern Territory
coast and adjacent islands between Port McArthur and the Queensland Border
today.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are occurring along the Queensland Gulf of Carpentaria
coast and adjacent islands and are expected to exceed the high water mark at
high tide over the next few days.

People between Gilbert RIver Mouth in Queensland and Cape Shield in the Northern
Territory, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island, should take
precautions and listen to the next advice at 8 am CST [8:30 am EST]. If you are
unsure about precautions to be taken, information is available from your local
government or local State Emergency Service.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga at 3:30 am CST [4:00 am EST]:
.Centre located near...... 16.0 degrees South 135.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am CST Friday 29 January [8:30 am EST
Friday 29 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre