SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F (12P)

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WTPS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 22.7S 149.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 149.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.4S 148.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.9S 146.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.6S 143.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 33.4S 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 149.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTH OF TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE POLEWARD
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BOTH PGTW AND PHFO HAVE DROPPED THEIR
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HALF A T-NUMBER TO 5.5 OR 102 KNOTS
SINCE THE PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC HOUR. THE SOUTHERN EYE WALL HAS BEGUN TO
ERODE AS THE SOUTHERNMOST CONVECTION IS SHEARED INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW, LEAVING THE EYE RAGGED AND IRREGULAR. THE CYCLONE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING
DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES/OCEANIC HEAT. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY NEAR TAU 36 AND WILL TRANSITION TO A FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN OUTLIER, TCLAPS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.//

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Going down

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Going down fast

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Tropical Cyclone Oli claims one life in French Polynesia

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WTPS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 25.6S 148.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 148.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.4S 145.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.9S 142.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 33.1S 138.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 147.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTH OF TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.
IN ADDITION, THE VISIBLE EYE FEATURE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY, BUT TC 12P REMAINS A FULLY
TROPICAL SYSTEM AS THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON PGTW AND PHFO DVORAK
ESTIMATES, WHICH TAKES INTO ACCOUNT CONSERVATION OF ANGULAR
MOMENTUM. TC OLI WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INCREASE IN FORWARD TRACK
SPEED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL THE WHILE, DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREAING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRANISTIONING TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY
TAU 12 AND BECOME A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z AND 070300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A23 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 05/1944 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [955HPA] CAT 3 CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 24.1S
148.9W AT 051800 UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS AND EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE FURTHER WHILST TURNING SOUTHEAST. POSITION
FAIR BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60NM
OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200NM OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 420NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUED TO WARM PAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM BEGINNING TO
LOSE ITS STRUCTURE UNDER INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SST [26C].
DVORAK BASED ON LG EYE EMBEDDED IN MG SURROUND, YIELDING A DT4.0, PT
AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T4.0/5.0/W2.0/24 HRS. NORTHWEST
DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW CONTINUES TO STEER OLI SOUTHEAST. SYSTEM MOVING
INTO REGION OF STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER SST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
AN EVENTUAL EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK AND FURTHER WEAKENING.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC NEAR 26.8S 147.1W MOV SSE 16KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC NEAR 29.1S 144.3W MOV SE 18KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC NEAR 31.4S 140.2W MOV ESE 22KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC NEAR 33.7S 135.3W MOV ESE 24KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI ISSUED
BY RSMC NADI AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO TCWC
WELLINGTON'S AOR WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

[Chacor]

STORM WARNING 122
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
Tropical Cyclone OLI [975hPa] centre was located near 26.0 South 147.8 West at 060600 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 26.0S 147.8W at 060600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 15 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 90 miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 360 miles of centre in the southern semicircle and within 240 miles of centre in the northern semicircle.

Forecast position near 27.8S 146.0W at 061800 UTC
and near 29.5S 143.5W at 070600 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 115.

[P.K.]

GALE WARNING 136
This affects ocean area(s): PACIFIC
AT 7:00am Sunday 7 February 2010

GALE WARNING 136
This affects ocean area: PACIFIC
AT 061800UTC
Over waters south of 25S.
Low 991hPa, former Cyclone OLI, near 30S 144W moving southeast 20kt.
1. Within 300 miles of low in northern semicircle: Clockwise 40kt.
2. Within 120 miles of low in southwest quadrant: Clockwise 35kt developing next 6-12 hours.
Gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 128.

Issued at 7:33am Sunday 7 February 2010

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 28.9S 145.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 145.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 31.8S 141.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 29.6S 144.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 12P HAS
RAPIDLY LOST ORGANIZATION AS IT HAS SPED UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE
FLOW AROUND THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
DEVELOPING REVERSE ORIENTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS IMPACTED THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE CONDITIONS
REMAIN ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT ALREADY AT UNFAVORABLE VALUES. TC 12P HAS STARTED EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW WILL REMAIN A STRONG MID-
LATITUDE SYSTEM AFTER TRANSITION WITH WINDS MAINTAINING 40 TO 50
KNOTS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI-
TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 20 FEET.//
NNNN