SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F/20P)

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 MAR 2010 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 12:44:15 S Lon : 161:35:18 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 901.5mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.1 7.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +4.5C Cloud Region Temp : -80.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 3.2T/18hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

NRL showing 125 kt. I think it is quite a bit stronger than that - my guess is 145 kt right now.

[HURAKAN]

13/2030 UTC 12.9S 162.1E T7.0/7.0 ULUI -- Southwest Pacific




Pretty and dangerous

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE WARNING 023 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 14/0057 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI CENTRE 930HPA CATEGORY 5 LOCATED NEAR 12.7 SOUTH 161.7
EAST AT 140000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 12.7S 161.7E AT 140000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 125 KNOTS
IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 12.6S 160.3E AT 141200 UTC.
AND NEAR 12.7S 158.9E AT 150000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 021.

[Chacor]

Remarkable storm, even Fiji forecasting 125 kt 10-minutes. That's ridiculously strong.

[HURAKAN]

Remarkable storms

[HURAKAN]

Dangerously beautiful

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 12.7S 161.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 161.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.6S 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.7S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 12.9S 157.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 13.3S 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 14.0S 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.7S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.7S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 161.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, ABRF, AND
KNES INDICATE TC 20P CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT A HIGHER THAN NORMAL
RATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED 10-NM DIAMETER EYE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
THAT IS ENHANCING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 20P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO ENJOY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 72 AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO HINDER THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, CAUSING THE SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND IN THE FORECAST.
THIS TROUGH WILL CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LEADING TO A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BEYOND TAU 72. TC ULUI IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
BUILDS AND STEERS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 MAR 2010 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 12:45:19 S Lon : 161:36:31 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 897.7mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.2 7.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -2.5C Cloud Region Temp : -80.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 3.2T/18hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Macrocane]

Ului is the strongest SPAC cyclone (by wind speed) since 2005 Percy and if it reaches the 155 kt (1-min winds) will be stronger than Percy or if it reaches more than 125 kt (10 min winds).

[CrazyC83]

It looks to have peaked for now though. Either an ERC is underway or dry air is trying to get in.

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive

[somethingfunny]

Remarkable storms

This is an amazing picture.

[Sheronz]

Very destructive cyclone force winds.

[DazzaMc]

Ok - this could get interesting....

[weathergaines]

THIS IS ONE SUPERB INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE..... AND I THINK ITS STILL INTENSIFYING AS COLD CLOUDTOPS REMAIN TO BE OBSERVED NEAR THE EYE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI AT -75.53°C.

[DazzaMc]

At what point do we have to start digging up the record books for the central pressure?

Anyone know what the current record is for is area?


869 hPa has to be getting down there....

[DazzaMc]

In fact - isn't 869 hPa leaving Zoe in the dust?

[DazzaMc]

869 cant be right... I'm reading some wrong there me thinks...

[Aussie girl]

Hi everyone, Only just discovered this very informative weather forum.I live in SEQ Australia and have this monster of a cyclone threatening us . Does anyone here think that this cyclone will make it to landfall on our shores.