WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (OMAIS) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 132.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.4N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.5N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.1N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.7N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 131.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (OMAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST
OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION
OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TS OMAIS IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO A REGION OF INCREASED VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 48 TS 02W
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EARLY
TAUS. IN THE LATER TAUS, GFDN AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK SYSTEM
TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE WBAR AND GFS SHOW A MORE INTENSE SYSTEM
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
FORECAST IS PREDICATED ON A PHILOSOPHY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GET
SHEARED AND DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE MIDLATITUDES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
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