EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS - DISCUSSION

[brunota2003]

Impressive blow up of storms to the SW of the llc this evening, however, note the clouds it is pushing into, and slowly having wrapped around the circulation (half way there now), indicates it is moving into a more stable, colder water environment, and I'd expect that this burst is more of a last gasp than anything else (like the NHC suggested).

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 210238
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010

SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS LIMITED
IN EXTENT AND IS DISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM'S
CENTER DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK
CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED AND THUS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT. THE ENHANCED CONVECTION THIS EVENING
MAY BE THE CYCLONE'S LAST GASP DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM AS THE SSTS ALONG THE TRACK SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
COLDER WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE. BLAS IS PREDICTED
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY...BUT COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE
CONVECTION DIES OFF TOMORROW MORNING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

CURRENT MOTION IS 280/12...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A
NARROW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF BLAS. WHILE A SUBSTANTIAL
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND A CORRESPONDING BREAK IN
THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BY THEN.
THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND HWRF MODELS AND IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 17.9N 116.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 18.1N 117.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 18.1N 119.7W 25 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 18.0N 121.9W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 23/0000Z 17.5N 124.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

[brunota2003]

Are they reading and copying my posts???

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010
200 AM PDT MON JUN 21 2010

A FEW HOURS AGO...SOME DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. HOWEVER RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CONVECTION DISSIPATING. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY
REMAINS NEAR 30 KT. BLAS SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...AND IS
NOT LIKELY TO SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MORE THAN ABOUT 24
HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 275/11. BLAS REMAINS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SO A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST TRACK IS
EXPECTED AS THE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW IS STEERED BY THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC TRADE WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 18.0N 117.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 18.1N 118.8W 25 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 18.0N 121.1W 25 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 17.7N 123.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 23/0600Z 17.4N 125.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

Hanging on for dear life!!

[Hurricane Andrew]

I wouldnt be surprised tpo see them up it to 40...or maybe even 45...!

[HURAKAN]

I wouldnt be surprised tpo see them up it to 40...or maybe even 45...!

Unlikely

[Hurricane Andrew]

I wouldnt be surprised tpo see them up it to 40...or maybe even 45...!

Unlikely

My comment to that photo:Blas, you'd better have a will ready. GOODBYE!

[HURAKAN]

967
WHXX01 KMIA 211840
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC MON JUN 21 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS (EP032010) 20100621 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100621 1800 100622 0600 100622 1800 100623 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 119.3W 18.0N 121.3W 18.6N 123.4W 19.0N 125.6W
BAMD 17.5N 119.3W 18.0N 121.2W 18.7N 123.0W 19.7N 124.9W
BAMM 17.5N 119.3W 17.9N 121.4W 18.2N 123.5W 18.7N 125.6W
LBAR 17.5N 119.3W 17.9N 121.3W 18.3N 123.5W 19.1N 125.9W
SHIP 25KTS 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 25KTS 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100623 1800 100624 1800 100625 1800 100626 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 128.2W 20.7N 133.2W 21.8N 137.5W 23.3N 141.5W
BAMD 20.9N 126.9W 23.9N 129.4W 26.4N 129.3W 27.5N 127.0W
BAMM 19.2N 127.8W 21.0N 131.8W 22.8N 134.8W 24.7N 137.3W
LBAR 19.8N 128.5W 22.3N 132.9W 25.5N 135.8W 28.3N 138.0W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 119.3W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 116.6W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 17.8N LONM24 = 114.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

203
WTPZ43 KNHC 212035
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010
200 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010

BLAS HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING MOST OF
THE DAY...WITH THE EARLIER SCANT CONVECTION NOW DISSIPATED. THUS
BLAS NO LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS
WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE CIRCULATION OF BLAS
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE COOL WATERS AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME JUST A TROUGH IN THE TRADE WINDS IN A FEW DAYS. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 17.5N 119.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 22/0600Z 17.3N 121.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 22/1800Z 17.0N 124.1W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 23/0600Z 16.6N 126.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 23/1800Z 16.2N 128.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE