ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[Gustywind]

Latest weather forecast of Meteo-France Guadeloupe concerning 94L:
For info we're always in yellow alert for a risk of strong showers/tstorms.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_gd.pdf (french version for those who want to improve theirc french , weheras i have translated much of this text in text to highlight the info)
Synopsis:

An important perturbed area crosses the nothern part of the Lesser Antilles, bringing locally strong cells of tstorms between Dominica and St Marteen. Strong showers have already reached la Désirade (more than 60mm) and Le
Moule (40 mm) this morning , then the northern tip of the island (Nord Basse-Terre) from Petit-
Bourg (more than 100 mm ) at Saint-Rose (near 60 mm) this afternoon.

Forecasts:This tstorm activity should continue tonight and tommorow morning. Tstorms developps locally and could bring strong amounts of water locally. An improvement of the weather is expected tommorow afternoon.

Commentary/Consequences:
No orange alert is expected. Be prudent and vigilant!

Summary:
The impact expected is moderate.

Validity/Duration of this feature:
Until tommrow morning 27th of June.
Next weather forecast tommorow 6AM.

[Gustywind]

Lightnings are making the show right now with the rain, more and more since 5 minutes

[Gustywind]

It's boombing i have to shut down my computer, lightnings amplifies thunder is rubling very strongly. Tstorms are very close to the house now i'm living now, too much

[cycloneye]

It's boombing i have to shut down my computer, lightnings amplifies thunder is rubling very strongly. Tstorms are very close to the house now i'm living now, too much

Be careful there and stay safe.

[KWT]

Yeah looks like there is still plenty of acitivity with this whole region that is being amplified by the shear from the jet streak.

[HURAKAN]

805
ABNT20 KNHC 262333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALEX...LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[KWT]

Looks like 94L is just about done according to the NHC, I think most of the attention will be on Alex for the next few days anyway...

[HURAKAN]

Looks like 94L is just about done according to the NHC, I think most of the attention will be on Alex for the next few days anyway...

Nothing can be expected until much later on. If 94L continues to interact with the ULL, no development can be expected.

[msbee]

It's boombing i have to shut down my computer, lightnings amplifies thunder is rubling very strongly. Tstorms are very close to the house now i'm living now, too much

Gusty
stay safe
hope everything is OK there.

[Gustywind]

It's boombing i have to shut down my computer, lightnings amplifies thunder is rubling very strongly. Tstorms are very close to the house now i'm living now, too much

Gusty
stay safe
hope everything is OK there.

Thanks Cycloneye, Msbee and the others for these thoughts, i appreciate sincerely Oh boy what a mess with these tstorms!!! This perturbed area is much more electric than the previous last week for sure !
They were enough strong sometimes, lightnings were making the show and i have wrote my last lost! We experienced a brief poweroutages during 5 secondes but hopefully all is ok, no problem i'm ok. Rain has stopped as the lightnings, thunder is rumbling less lourder, so good news for us . After that i advice you my friend in the others islands to be very prudent, 94L is not organized but does not give up even to moving away so be carefull!

[Gustywind]

It's boombing i have to shut down my computer, lightnings amplifies thunder is rubling very strongly. Tstorms are very close to the house now i'm living now, too much

Be careful there and stay safe.

Thanks Luis i'm ok.

[Weatherfreak000]

94L still flaring up. Still some potential I believe.

[ozonepete]

The TUTT that has been interacting with 94L has gradually eased up and is gone now. Over the past few days it has degenerated from a very large positively tilted upper level trough to a negatively tilted one that has naturally evolved into an upper level low. That ULL is now contracting and moving westward. This could very well finally allow the very persistent wave that was 94L to start intensifying. Persistence is always significant in tropical cyclone development. Worth watching.

[HURAKAN]

ARLENE, 1999:

"A mid/upper level low emerged from a diffused front on June 8. This low was located several hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Around this time, a tropical wave passed near the low. Over the next two days, the low level cloud swirl did not significantly develop, as wind shear was present. Convection began to gather near the center as wind shear was decreasing because of an upper level low moving away. It was estimated that by June 11 the low had strengthened into a tropical depression, therefore becoming Tropical Depression One, while it was centered about 345 miles (555 km) from Bermuda."

Link - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_S ... %281999%29

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity is increasing

[HURAKAN]

AL, 94, 2010062700, , BEST, 0, 173N, 604W, 25, 1013, DB

It's alive!!!

[ozonepete]

Something's gotta give with this system. The lower level wave action is pushing up really hard to the west due to the trade winds. It all hinges on what that receding ULL does. If the ULL weakens, this has a good chance of developing.

[Gustywind]

Code Yellow

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270600
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALEX...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 165
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Well if nothing else this system is enhancing storm activity in the NE Caribbean with some cells having developed overnight.

Still at near 0% chance though!