WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTHU (1003/04W)

[RL3AO]

I thought it said Tropical Storm Cthulhu at first.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Consolidating

[Iune]

On another note, the last storm PAGASA named "Caloy" was Super Typhoon Chanchu from May 2006.

[HURAKAN]

904
WTPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 116.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.4N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.4N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.6N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.8N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 23.0N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.5N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 116.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
191809Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS
CHANTHU IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTING GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS
04W HAS RECENTLY TURNED NORTHWARD DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO A
PASSING MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. AS THE
STEERING RIDGE REBUILDS, TS 04W SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW RIDGE
INDICATED IN UPPER LEVEL OBSERVATIONS FROM CHINA. TS 04W WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO GOOD
OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW VWS. IT IS FORECAST
TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 48 AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD AS TO EXACTLY WHERE TS
04W WILL REACH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//

[Chacor]

191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1003 CHANTHU (1003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 16.1N 116.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 18.0N 114.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 211800UTC 19.8N 113.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 221800UTC 21.1N 111.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1003 CHANTHU (1003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 17.4N 115.9E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 19.3N 114.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 220000UTC 20.4N 112.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 230000UTC 21.5N 111.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[Typhoon10]

Looks like taken full, almost 90 degress and now heading almost N!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 116.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 116.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.4N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.5N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.6N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.7N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.8N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.1N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 115.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 200000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z
AND 210300Z.//
NNNN

[Typhoon10]

T1 warning now raised here in HK

[Chacor]

Up to 40 kt.

[Typhoon10]

Appears to be veering to the left again!

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_pos.htm

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 115.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 115.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.9N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.2N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.5N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.8N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 24.1N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 114.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW INDICATE THE
SYSTEM REMAINS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AND HAS NOT STRENGTHENED.
THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS DEGRADED SOME, ESPECIALLY ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA HAS NOT ONLY PERSISTED, BUT DEEPENED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. AS THE STORM NEARS THIS FEATURE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL ELEVATE TO 20 TO 40 KNOTS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN,
AND DRIER AIR FROM THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL HELP STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT AND SUPPRESS CLOUD GROWTH. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY BEYOND 45 KNOTS AS LONG AS THIS TROUGH
PERSISTS. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. UPPER
AIR SOUNDINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA, TO INCLUDE HAINAN,
ALL SUGGEST DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR PENETRATING AS LOW AS 500 MB FROM
THE UPPER LEVELS. IN ADDITION, THESE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A FAIRLY
DEEP COLUMN OF (NORTH)EASTERLIES, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A MORE
WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE FORECAST TRACK. AS SUCH THIS FORECAST LIES
TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

Up to 45 kt.

WTPQ21 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1003 CHANTHU (1003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 18.2N 114.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 20.1N 113.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 221200UTC 22.1N 111.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 231200UTC 23.9N 108.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[HURAKAN]

Not many times you see the intensity from JMA higher than the intensity from JTWC

[yzerfan]

I thought it said Tropical Storm Cthulhu at first.

Glad to know I'm not the only one who misread it like that.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[P.K.]

Upgraded.

WTPQ21 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1003 CHANTHU (1003) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 18.5N 113.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 20.8N 112.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 221800UTC 22.7N 109.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 231800UTC 24.6N 107.1E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =