ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[CourierPR]

All depends where the LLC forms.

Thank you. That's what I was thinking.

[Vortmax1]

That's right HURAKAN.
Based on what we know now...which is what I said.
It's pretty obvious we don't know a heck of a lot and there is no sign of a LLC anywhere!
LOL

[Gustywind]

I hope those in Hispaniola, especially Haiti, are monitoring the progress of 97L very closely because IMHO even if it doesn’t develop into a TD, the potential for flooding certainly exists.

By what is occuring in Puerto Rico for sure. I am posting this photo only to let know the members of what is going on here.But all the observations and news about this rain event are being posted on the Caribbean and Central America thread at USA & Caribbean weather forum.

Thanks Cycloneye we appreciate . That's always impressive to see roads flooded like that!

[KWT]

KWT, isn't this system going to move just north of the islands and into the southeast Bahamas?

Sat.imagery suggests any circulation will set-up just to the NE of PR, there is certainly some low level turning though its probably far from being closed right now. If the circulation is down there, then with the set-up aloft it'll very likely track through all the islands. Certainly that is what the current models also suggest.

[Nimbus]

Almost looked like some low clouds streaming north into the burst just northeast of Puerto Rico. Hope it doesn't get a whole lot worse with the flooding.

[HURAKAN]

San Juan, PR, is reporting east winds. So, at the moment, there is nothing organized at the surface

[Vortmax1]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
320 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010



ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ORIENTED CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BE MOVING TO THE WEST/NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK. MID TO LATE RANGE MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING VERY WELL
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW A SOLUTION
WHICH IS CLOSER TO A WEAK GFS...AND ACTUALLY TOWARDS A MUCH WEAKER
ECMWF WHICH KEEP AN OPEN WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE
THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

[Vortmax1]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
259 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010



BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
GFS SHOWS THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER "LA ISLA DEL ENCANTO"
(PUERTO RICO) MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH TROUGHING FORMING TO
ITS EAST...AND A BROAD ELONGATED SURFACE TO MID LEVEL TROUGH
PULLING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREAS FRI-SAT WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE PULLING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UPPER LOW/TUTT
MOVES WEST EVENTUALLY JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A SET
UP FOR MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...WITH
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...A LOT CAN AND WILL CHANGE AS
IT IS FAR OUT IN TIME...SO KEPT THE CHANCE POPS FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK.

[Gustywind]

LATEST

[KWT]

San Juan, PR, is reporting east winds. So, at the moment, there is nothing organized at the surface

Any circulation wil lbe very weak right now and not likely closed, as we've seen time and time again with recon sometimes they can really be only a few miles of westerly winds on the southern side...BUT we are clearly not even close to that stage yet to be fair.

IF it takes the nHC track by the way, then yeah it'd probably be a decent strength system before Florida...but I have HUGE doubts about that track idea.

[Rainband]

San Juan, PR, is reporting east winds. So, at the moment, there is nothing organized at the surface

Any circulation wil lbe very weak right now and not likely closed, as we've seen time and time again with recon sometimes they can really be only a few miles of westerly winds on the southern side...BUT we are clearly not even close to that stage yet to be fair.

IF it takes the nHC track by the way, then yeah it'd probably be a decent strength system before Florida...but I have HUGE doubts about that track idea.

Can you elaborate on that?

[lebron23]

IF it takes the nHC track by the way, then yeah it'd probably be a decent strength system before Florida...but I have HUGE doubts about that track idea.

Agree.

[Gustywind]

With this closeup see how PR continue to face the assualts of 97L... Nice burst continues to flaring up nicely. Clouds tops east of PR always cold. Hope that there is no fatalies or injuries to report Luis during rain event! Rain rain rain straight on you ....

[Ivanhater]

Certainly see the spin NE of PR, not sure if it is at the surface

[Gustywind]

For those who are interested by Meteo-France radar here is the link:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... C_car.html

[cycloneye]

No west winds so far at a Vieques station.

http://www.playacofi.com/weather/

[johngaltfla]

That radar image does appear to indicate something is trying to get its act together. I hope I'm wrong but a July TS would not shock me the way this season is setting up.

[TwisterFanatic]

Woah! This one creeped up on me. I must have been sleeping. lol

[KWT]

Yeah there is almost certainly a developing MLC at least to the NE of PR though its clearly in the developmental stage.

Its current presentation though looks very interesting, it may just be per chance but the convection sure looks like its wrapping towards the MLC...

[Ikester]

That radar image does appear to indicate something is trying to get its act together. I hope I'm wrong but a July TS would not shock me the way this season is setting up.

I don't see where anything has been out of the ordinary..