ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION

[chzzdekr81]

40%

[Florida1118]

Well, bonnie might come from this. That would mean that 97 is not a she, its a he, unless 97 develops first then it would be a she again...

[supercane]

Well, bonnie might come from this. That would mean that 97 is not a she, its a he, unless 97 develops first then it would be a she again...

You avoid this problem if you think of the storm as "it," with the name being just a matter of convenient shorthand for identification purposes (i.e., compared to saying the storm currently located at 19N 94W) and when there are multiple systems around (as could be later this week or season).

[cperez1594]

98L is looking good. I am thinking we might have Bonnie in the BOC instead of 97L. I hope this stays down in Mexico. Deep south texas does not need this system nor the rain. All the leeves are full to the max. It is crazy!

[Florida1118]

Well, bonnie might come from this. That would mean that 97 is not a she, its a he, unless 97 develops first then it would be a she again...

You avoid this problem if you think of the storm as "it," with the name being just a matter of convenient shorthand for identification purposes (i.e., compared to saying the storm currently located at 19N 94W) and when there are multiple systems around (as could be later this week or season).

Ya....I know what the naming means.I was kidding. Anyway.......It is looking very nice...Its only got a little bit over water though...

[supercane]

Interesting enough, no recon tasked for this system as of yet. Will be interesting to see the POD if convection persists, but normally recon is scheduled a day in advance of any expected development.

[lebron23]

When do the 6z come out

[cperez1594]

The links below are the leeves current as of July 20th, 2010. We dont need any rain at all!

Check out out Leeves in South Texas, this area is in Pharr, TX near the Rio Grande River
ftp://selene.tacc.utexas.edu/Magic/Hazard/10Alex/Imagery/CAP/0720/DSC_0058.JPG

This is leeve near Mercedes, Texas.
This image is before
ftp://selene.tacc.utexas.edu/Magic/Hazard/10Alex/Imagery/CAP/0706/DSC_0129.JPG3

This is after when nothing but water was released into the leeves.
ftp://selene.tacc.utexas.edu/Magic/Hazard/10Alex/Imagery/CAP/0720/DSC_0191.JPG

[SouthFloridawx]

When do the 6z come out

6 Hours after the 00Z...

Here's conversion chart I found.

NOAA satellites use Zulu Time or Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) as their time reference. The satellite images that appear on NOAA's Web sites are stamped in Zulu time.

To make the conversion to your local time, see the chart below. Find your local time in the first column. If you are on Eastern Daylight Saving Time (EDT), you would use the second column to find your Zulu Time/UTC. For instance, if it's 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Saving Time in Washington, D.C., it's 1500 hours in Zulu time/UTC. See legend below. (Back to Hurricanes Page.)

LOCAL EDT EST CDT CST MDT MST PDT PST
Midnight 0400 0500 0500 0600 0600 0700 0700 0800
1 a.m. 0500 0600 0600 0700 0700 0800 0800 0900
2 a.m. 0600 0700 0700 0800 0800 0900 0900 1000
3 a.m. 0700 0800 0800 0900 0900 1000 1000 1100
4 a.m. 0800 0900 0900 1000 1000 1100 1100 1200
5 a.m. 0900 1000 1000 1100 1100 1200 1200 1300
6 a.m. 1000 1100 1100 1200 1200 1300 1300 1400
7 a.m. 1100 1200 1200 1300 1300 1400 1400 1500
8 a.m. 1200 1300 1300 1400 1400 1500 1500 1600
9 a.m. 1300 1400 1400 1500 1500 1600 1600 1700
10 a.m. 1400 1500 1500 1600 1600 1700 1700 1800
11 a.m. 1500 1600 1600 1700 1700 1800 1800 1900
NOON 1600 1700 1700 1800 1800 1900 1900 2000
1 p.m. 1700 1800 1800 1900 1900 2000 2000 2100
2 p.m. 1800 1900 1900 2000 2000 2100 2100 2200
3 p.m. 1900 2000 2000 2100 2100 2200 2200 2300
4 p.m. 2000 2100 2100 2200 2200 2300 2300 2400
5 p.m. 2100 2200 2200 2300 2300 2400 2400 0100
6 p.m. 2200 2300 2300 2400 2400 0100 0100 0200
7 p.m. 2300 2400 2400 0100 0100 0200 0200 0300
8 p.m. 2400 0100 0100 0200 0200 0300 0300 0400
9 p.m. 0100 0200 0200 0300 0300 0400 0400 0500
10 p.m. 0200 0300 0300 0400 0400 0500 0500 0600
11 p.m. 0300 0400 0400 0500 0500 0600 0600 0700
LOCAL EDT EST CDT CST MDT MST PDT PST
LEGEND:
EDT = Eastern Daylight Saving Time
EST = Eastern Standard Time
CDT = Central Daylight Saving Time
CST = Central Standard Time
MDT = Mountain Daylight Saving Time
MST = Mountain Standard Time
PDT = Pacific Daylight Saving Time
PST = Pacific Standard Time

http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/zulu-utc.html

[supercane]

The links below are the leeves current as of July 20th, 2010. We dont need any rain at all!

True, but surprised to see that flash flood guidance is actually relatively high, with >2.25 in needed to cause flash floods: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/ffg.php?duration=1&location=ST

[Goradd]

The links below are the leeves current as of July 20th, 2010. We dont need any rain at all!

Check out out Leeves in South Texas, this area is in Pharr, TX near the Rio Grande River
ftp://selene.tacc.utexas.edu/Magic/Hazard/10Alex/Imagery/CAP/0720/DSC_0058.JPG

This is leeve near Mercedes, Texas.
This image is before
ftp://selene.tacc.utexas.edu/Magic/Hazard/10Alex/Imagery/CAP/0706/DSC_0129.JPG3

This is after when nothing but water was released into the leeves.
ftp://selene.tacc.utexas.edu/Magic/Hazard/10Alex/Imagery/CAP/0720/DSC_0191.JPG

Those are NOT levees...those are the Flood Ways to prevent flooding...so water is meant to go there...hasn't Tim Smith taught you anything?

[cperez1594]

The links below are the leeves current as of July 20th, 2010. We dont need any rain at all!

Check out out Leeves in South Texas, this area is in Pharr, TX near the Rio Grande River
ftp://selene.tacc.utexas.edu/Magic/Hazard/10Alex/Imagery/CAP/0720/DSC_0058.JPG

This is leeve near Mercedes, Texas.
This image is before
ftp://selene.tacc.utexas.edu/Magic/Hazard/10Alex/Imagery/CAP/0706/DSC_0129.JPG3

This is after when nothing but water was released into the leeves.
ftp://selene.tacc.utexas.edu/Magic/Hazard/10Alex/Imagery/CAP/0720/DSC_0191.JPG

Those are NOT levees...those are the Flood Ways to prevent flooding...so water is meant to go there...hasn't Tim Smith taught you anything?

They are known as well as leeves and floodways same deal.

[Goradd]

The links below are the leeves current as of July 20th, 2010. We dont need any rain at all!

Check out out Leeves in South Texas, this area is in Pharr, TX near the Rio Grande River
ftp://selene.tacc.utexas.edu/Magic/Hazard/10Alex/Imagery/CAP/0720/DSC_0058.JPG

This is leeve near Mercedes, Texas.
This image is before
ftp://selene.tacc.utexas.edu/Magic/Hazard/10Alex/Imagery/CAP/0706/DSC_0129.JPG3

This is after when nothing but water was released into the leeves.
ftp://selene.tacc.utexas.edu/Magic/Hazard/10Alex/Imagery/CAP/0720/DSC_0191.JPG

Those are NOT levees...those are the Flood Ways to prevent flooding...so water is meant to go there...hasn't Tim Smith taught you anything?

They are known as well as leeves and floodways same deal.

Do some research they are NOT the same...anyway the system to is far away and too close to land to affect the rio grande valley

[KWT]

Only 40% chance of development?!

This one looks like its nearly there now, and whilst I'm guessing land interaction is why the NHC is holding back they have to acknowledge the great presentation. We've seen many worse looking TS systems right now.

Must go cherry next time IMO...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Center of circulation likely to be in the northern part of the convection, but its got a great looking inflow band now. I really think this one will make it.

[HURAKAN]

stationary

[KWT]

If its stalled then that only increases the chances this makes it to a NS...starting to suspect this one will be Bonnie...

[HURAKAN]

Chances likely going up again at 8 am. RECON needs to be scheduled for at least one mission before it moves inland

[KWT]

It IMO has to go to cherry red, its barely movcing over hot waters and very good upper conditions, must be a go-er surely?