ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS

[KWT]

That HWRF is real extreme it has to be said, I think its picking up on good conditions aloft but its too agressive...and also I can't see it gaining 10 degrees between 25-30W and 50W to be honest, it'll have to ramp up as fast as the HWRF wants for that to have a shot, esp given the nice big upper high that is in place still...

Wow the 18z GFDL is even more insane!

[RachelAnna]

What will be interesting to see is how much these models change over time since we're still pretty far out.

[Aric Dunn]

although the synoptics seem like they will be in place for a decent intensity .. the problem with the HWRF and GFDL atm is that in less than 24hours they have a TS and that is not very likely.. so the track is ok but the rapid increase in intensity is much to high to soon..

[KWT]

Yeah true, though obviously in this synotpic set-up if the models is too strong its probably making the model lift the system out too quickly IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah true, though obviously in this synotpic set-up if the models is too strong its probably making the model lift the system out too quickly IMO.

yeah there is always a right bias in that case but its still same general track as the bam's just farther north..

[RL3AO]

although the synoptics seem like they will be in place for a decent intensity .. the problem with the HWRF and GFDL atm is that in less than 24hours they have a TS and that is not very likely.. so the track is ok but the rapid increase in intensity is much to high to soon..

By far the biggest weakness in those models. They develop everything way to quick.

[Ivanhater]

00z Guidance..SHIPS 91 KNOTS

866

WHXX01 KWBC 300051

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0051 UTC FRI JUL 30 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100730 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100730 0000 100730 1200 100731 0000 100731 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.2N 31.3W 8.1N 32.5W 8.1N 33.7W 8.3N 34.9W

BAMD 8.2N 31.3W 8.3N 32.3W 8.8N 33.4W 9.6N 34.7W

BAMM 8.2N 31.3W 8.3N 32.5W 8.7N 33.6W 9.2N 34.9W

LBAR 8.2N 31.3W 8.0N 33.8W 8.5N 36.6W 9.2N 39.6W

SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 40KTS

DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 40KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100801 0000 100802 0000 100803 0000 100804 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.5N 36.2W 8.7N 39.6W 10.6N 44.1W 14.2N 50.5W

BAMD 10.4N 36.4W 11.7N 40.8W 13.2N 46.4W 15.4N 52.1W

BAMM 9.7N 36.6W 10.1N 40.8W 10.8N 45.8W 13.3N 51.1W

LBAR 10.3N 42.8W 11.8N 49.2W 12.1N 54.7W 14.9N 58.1W

SHIP 51KTS 69KTS 83KTS 91KTS

DSHP 51KTS 69KTS 83KTS 91KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 8.2N LONCUR = 31.3W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 15KT

LATM12 = 9.0N LONM12 = 28.5W DIRM12 = 252DEG SPDM12 = 16KT

LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 25.4W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

SHIP goes even more bullish than the first run.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 300051
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0051 UTC FRI JUL 30 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100730 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100730  0000   100730  1200   100731  0000   100731  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     8.2N  31.3W    8.1N  32.5W    8.1N  33.7W    8.3N  34.9W
BAMD     8.2N  31.3W    8.3N  32.3W    8.8N  33.4W    9.6N  34.7W
BAMM     8.2N  31.3W    8.3N  32.5W    8.7N  33.6W    9.2N  34.9W
LBAR     8.2N  31.3W    8.0N  33.8W    8.5N  36.6W    9.2N  39.6W
SHIP        20KTS          23KTS          30KTS          40KTS
DSHP        20KTS          23KTS          30KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100801  0000   100802  0000   100803  0000   100804  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     8.5N  36.2W    8.7N  39.6W   10.6N  44.1W   14.2N  50.5W
BAMD    10.4N  36.4W   11.7N  40.8W   13.2N  46.4W   15.4N  52.1W
BAMM     9.7N  36.6W   10.1N  40.8W   10.8N  45.8W   13.3N  51.1W
LBAR    10.3N  42.8W   11.8N  49.2W   12.1N  54.7W   14.9N  58.1W
SHIP        51KTS          69KTS          83KTS          91KTS
DSHP        51KTS          69KTS          83KTS          91KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   8.2N LONCUR =  31.3W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =   9.0N LONM12 =  28.5W DIRM12 = 252DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =   9.8N LONM24 =  25.4W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[wxman57]

I think we'll see the models shift south into the NE Caribbean over the coming days. I don't buy the immediate turn to the WNW.

[cycloneye]

I think we'll see the models shift south into the NE Caribbean over the coming days. I don't buy the immediate turn to the WNW.

Is too far south to feel any effects of a weakness right?

[Ivanhater]

If anyone is familiar with Larry Cosgrove, here an an interesting tidbit concerning the extreme long range between the GFS and Euro

"From this distance (we are talking, at earliest, involvement in the U.S. between August 11 and 13), be aware that ANY computer model estimation of track and intensity will have a low chance of verifying. That said, there is a notable split in the GFS and ECMWF models shaping up in the 11 - 15 day period. The American outlook is showing a defined 500MB weakness along the Eastern Seaboard that turns what may be a hurricane northward into the Carolinas. The European panels, however, keep the massive central/southern heat ridge intact, and funnel the disturbance, whatever it is by August 8, into the Gulf of Mexico. If taken literally, the ECMWF variants deliver a strong hint at a Texas landfall around August 14.

I will be following the tropical system trajectories (along with the heat wave) on the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter this weekend. Stay tuned!"

[AJC3]

If anyone is familiar with Larry Cosgrove, here an an interesting tidbit concerning the extreme long range between the GFS and Euro

From this distance (we are talking, at earliest, involvement in the U.S. between August 11 and 13), be aware that ANY computer model estimation of track and intensity will have a low chance of verifying. That said, there is a notable split in the GFS and ECMWF models shaping up in the 11 - 15 day period. The American outlook is showing a defined 500MB weakness along the Eastern Seaboard that turns what may be a hurricane northward into the Carolinas. The European panels, however, keep the massive central/southern heat ridge intact, and funnel the disturbance, whatever it is by August 8, into the Gulf of Mexico. If taken literally, the ECMWF variants deliver a strong hint at a Texas landfall around August 14.

I will be following the tropical system trajectories (along with the heat wave) on the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter this weekend. Stay tuned!

It seems as though Larry based his GFS comments on the 18Z, rather than the 12Z GFS, since the 12Z run pushed the system into the east coast of FL. Remarkably the 12Z GFS was almost identical to the 12Z ECM W/R/T the position of the H85 vortex all the way out at 240 hours. Moreover, I don't even think the ECMWF even makes day 11-15 model forecasts available to the public (anyone?)

Regardless, trying to speculate 10-15 days out about a model advertised system yet to spin up is tenuous at best.

"WMUWIR40W"

[KatDaddy]

Thanks for that post Ivanhater. A long few months are about to begin.

Yep way to far out at this point to speculate. At this point Larry could be right on with a GOM threat or SE US threat. It will be the ridge vs tropical cyclone.

[Ivanhater]

I agree Tony, I have no clue how you can speculate THAT far out. But some of the Texans seem to like him. I personally never heard of him.

Regardless, there is plenty of time to watch this one...

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET tracks it WNW towards over the next 5 days, while keeping it relatively weak:

[Dean4Storms]

I would expect gradual strengthening, nothing rapid and with the steering currents as is this to become a NE Carib. crosser and a threat to the Bahamas and Florida and then possibly into the eastern GOM. I'm with the ECMWF on this to a degree, except I think it gets deeper than the ECM thus gains more latitude. The ridge has been very locked in and I just don't see a weakness strong enough to pull up this system from this deep in the tropics and for it to do so it would have to deepen tremendously.

[gatorcane]

Wrap up...


1. Clips the NE Islands
2. Moves NW into a weakness
3. Shoved back west under great upper level conditions near the Bahamas
4. Stalls
5. Rounds the High into South Carolina

In summary, get ready for a busy week!

We recall that at one point last year while powerful Hurricane Bill looked to possibly threaten the NE Leewards, the long-range GFS showed a VERY similar scenario where some runs showed through FL, others stalling near FL in the Bahamas, some going up to the Carolinas etc. Bill ended up passing by Florida 1000+ miles to the east.

You might as well not even look at the long-range GFS at this point as it is very not likely to verify.

[Ivanhater]

That was a summary of that particular model run, nothing more...

[StormClouds63]

Does 90L develop? Yes, but it's far from a sure thing. It will be another slow, slow wait over the next 2-3 days. Looks like environmental conditions are o.k. for development, but far from ideal. No rapid development or intensification.

Ultimate path? My guess is that it's an Atlantic system. Easily a fish ... or, as I have guessed, brushes NC Outer Banks. European models apparently don't see as much of a weakness developing, so it will indeed be interesting.

Intensity? Category 1-2 hurricane.

I really think they missed a great opportunity with the 3rd name ... should have been Conan. Think of the possibilities ... as we wait and watch 90L.

[Blown Away]

Wrap up...


1. Clips the NE Islands
2. Moves NW into a weakness
3. Shoved back west under great upper level conditions near the Bahamas
4. Stalls
5. Rounds the High into South Carolina

In summary, get ready for a busy week!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_336m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336m.gif

Opinion only, I just don't think it will take 13 days to find out if 90L ends up off SC.