ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be close to TD5...

[wxman57]

Looks to be close to TD5...

It'll have to develop a circulation, first. That could happen in a day or two before it reaches the Yucatan.

[cperez1594]

Brownsville AFD morning discussion... I think they are hinting on something

RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN SOLID CENTERPIECES OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST...COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF. THE ONLY CRACK IN THE
WINDOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEAS...YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE A PERSISTENT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING NEEDED MOISTURE TO FUEL CONVECTION.

[tailgater]

Looks to be close to TD5...

It'll have to develop a circulation, first. That could happen in a day or two before it reaches the Yucatan.

I was wondering where you were. It looks like it's getting act together but moving rather quickly for a Friday flight.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Low level convergence is increasing, the ULL needs to be watched closely as it may prevent development despite being a weak feature, but nonetheless conditions appear to be possibly becoming more favourable right now, the Vort is moving towards the deeper convection.

The southern region of convection could see someting getting going in the next 12-24hrs IF it holds.

I'd have to agree with you KWT, The convergence/divergence looks good near term and local shear looks to be on the decrease. Maybe the greater danger is if this holds development and tracks west under the ridge. Watching for evidence of a LLC developing today/tonight.

[KWT]

Looks to be close to TD5...

It'll have to develop a circulation, first. That could happen in a day or two before it reaches the Yucatan.

Totally agree, its lacking any real low level circulation at all, but the whole thing is looking increasingly good right now...probably has enough time to be upgraded...

Recon sort of gives a good idea where NHC expect it to be, about 85W and 16.5N...could make it to the BoC given the upper troughing that sweeps by should help to lift it, if only a little.

[cperez1594]

This system is surely getting it act together fast. I think I see some rotation but could be my eyes. This has to be watched closely.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[tailgater]

It ought to be passing very near the buoy Station 42058 - Central Caribbean so we can tell if there is some deepening occuring. But no it's down awaiting repairs.

[KWT]

Probably will have to go upto orange, though still not really much of a hint of any decent low level turning/lowering pressure that normally is what is needed by the NHC to become more interested

[srainhoutx]

Looking better...

[hurricaneCW]

I don't think it's going to develop before it hits land. Not enough tough and it looks nothing more than a wave. I don't see any organization, the convection will probably decrease soon.

[ROCK]

does look better....need more model support....

why cant RECON run over there while they are out looking at EX-Colin? they are somewhat in the area....I mean they are flying into tstorms and thats about it...

[ROCK]

I don't think it's going to develop before it hits land. Not enough tough and it looks nothing more than a wave. I don't see any organization, the convection will probably decrease soon.

What are you basing these assumptions on? you dont see any organization? did you not see it last night?

[tailgater]

I gotta go to work soon but I guess that they will put the chances at 40% but I would put between 50 to 70 from what I'm seeing right now. Sure wish we had more obs. Oh well the ULL south of Cuba is still there and should keep her in check.

[hurricaneCW]

I see more convection but that's about it. There's no turning at all and it's about 2-3 days from land. By the time anything tries to get going, it'll simply be too late. The thing with Caribbean storms is that if they develop in the Caribbean, they don't have a lot of time to get organized unless they are supposed to turn north into Gulf. There are a few exemptions where a disturbance is slowly moving and has enough time to rapidly organize (Wilma), but most have to develop further east in the central Atlantic (at least a storm nearing TD status or a TD) and then take advantage of the favorable Caribbean environment.

[vbhoutex]

While 92L definitely looks better that it did, visible sat loops give no indication of any low level spin that I can find. IMO, this still has a long way to go. We'll see if the conditions in Carib help it relatively soon I would think.

[HURAKAN]

Have you tried this loop?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 192245.GIF

[KWT]

W.Caribbean is plenty of space for a system to get going, Alex effectivly went from a sheared out wave to a 60-65mph TS in the W.Caribbean.

It is a westerly runner but what tends to happen is they fire up convection then as they get closer to land the combo of frictional tightening occuring and also a larger influw channel as SA curves away.

Not going to have time probably to become too potent but I think to rule it out is a little hasty at the moment, I think its got a 50-50 chance of being a NS by landfall.

I do agree though Low level isn't all that impressive just yet...

[hurricaneCW]

W.Caribbean is plenty of space for a system to get going, Alex effectivly went from a sheared out wave to a 60-65mph TS in the W.Caribbean.

It is a westerly runner but what tends to happen is they fire up convection then as they get closer to land the combo of frictional tightening occuring and also a larger influw channel as SA curves away.

Not going to have time probably to become too potent but I think to rule it out is a little hasty at the moment, I think its got a 50-50 chance of being a NS by landfall.

I really hope we don't see Danielle out of this one. Just what we need, another 40mph TS.